- In our lives right now, there is a lot of unknowns.
Today, we are going to talk about
what experts are saying based on up-to-date research
about the rollout of a COVID-19 vaccine
over the coming year.
Picture this, it's September, 2021.
COVID-19 is still being spread across the world,
let's say 300 million people have been infected,
two million have died,
these are some predictions for next fall.
You have survived the dark winter,
you've enjoyed the summer,
physically distancing with your friends,
you're kinda used to this pandemic lifestyle
of outbreaks and lockdowns, yeah.
And a vaccine for COVID-19 has been approved,
but you do not have access to it yet.
So why is that?
Something that scientists are talking about a lot right now.
and publishing papers are saying,
"We need glass vials."
Okay. the vaccine is held in glass vials,
and I'm not a politician,
but I really just like,
wherever the glass vial factories are,
let's start spitting them out.
Another interesting factor
is whether or not the vaccine that eventually gets approved
needs to be cold.
A lot of vaccines require refrigeration,
this is a huge issue for a lot of the world, as we all know,
the world is hot, and it's only getting hotter,
and the necessity of a cold vaccine
can hinder the ability to get this vaccine
across the world efficiently.
As of September, 2020,
there are 47 vaccine trials taking place.
24 are in phase one, 14 are in phase two,
and nine are in phase three.
Phase three means that these vaccines
have actually been proven safe to test in people,
but we have to test in numbers
as high as 20,000 to 40,000 people,
then we also have to have
some in control groups, some not,
then we have to follow these people for months to a year.
In following them, we're trying to see,
is this vaccine provoking an immune response,
which protects you from COVID-19?
In early September, 2020, just last week,
the AstraZeneca trial was paused.
This is because one person in Britain
who was in the phase two/three trials
actually came down with
a inflammation of their spinal cord.
This is a very important story,
because it's showing that there is
a healthy process at work here.
In fact, nine of the top biopharmaceutical companies,
in the same week, sent out a letter to say
that even though they are essentially business rivals,
they will be working together to ensure
that scientific standards and ethical treatment of people,
when it comes to the actual administering
of these phase three trials,
and the concept of approving a vaccine
will be held to the highest standards.
This is interesting, because when a vaccine is approved,
there are still gonna be governing regulations
that decide whether or not that vaccine
gets into your country.
So, in America, you have something like the FDA,
here in Canada, we have Health Canada,
in all of the phase three trials
that they are currently doing,
the information will be public,
so, governing bodies will still be able to see
why that vaccine might've been approved
from a scientific process,
and decide if they think, as a government,
that it is ready to come into their country.
So when it comes to you getting your vaccine,
there is going to be companies
going through phase three trials
with public scientific knowledge
to decide whether or not that vaccine is safe for you,
but then also, there will be your own government
making a decision whether or not that vaccine
is safe for you.
So thinking about timeline,
it's just important to know that these phase three trials,
we are following these people for months to a year,
so this is one of the reasons
why maybe next year, in September, 2021,
you're still gonna be chilling in a lockdown (whines).
But let's move on to some other factors
that also may slow down this process.
The first vaccine that is approved
may not be the most efficient.
It may not be the one that you end up getting,
because for example,
another vaccine might get approved
that doesn't need to be refrigerated,
therefore it is a more efficient vaccine.
The first vaccine approved may only cause immunity
for six months and need booster shots,
whereas another vaccine might, again,
create a better or more strong
immune response within people.
There are also some interesting vaccine potentials
that might involve just topical applications,
which again would be even more efficient.
So, one other important part of this
is that the first approved vaccine
doesn't mean that we stop all the other trials.
The other trials need to continue,
because the most efficient vaccine
may not be the first approved.
So once approved, how many of these vaccines
are we going to need?
In order to halt transmission of the virus
within a population,
it's expected that 60 to 70% of that population
needs to be immune.
But that's still not gonna prevent clusters of outbreaks
within people who are susceptible to the virus.
For example, the largest vaccine producer is in India,
called the Serum Institute of India, it's in Pune,
and they can create 60 to 70 million vaccines per month.
AstraZeneca actually has a relationship
with the specific factories
to make 1 billion of their potential vaccines.
The United States, Canada, EU, United Kingdom,
they have all ordered, already,
millions of vaccines from a variety of manufacturers,
enough to produce vaccines for their populations
over and over and over,
which brings us to an important part of this conversation,
which is that wealthier countries
are likely going to have more access to these vaccines.
The fact that a lot of these manufacturing processes
are linked with the capitalist idea of wealthy countries
being able to bid the highest for the vaccine,
we need to talk about this,
I think be prepared for what is gonna happen
in regards to this,
so we can understand how we have conversations about this
in the coming year,
because the wealthier countries need to figure out
how we can also support people in other countries
who maybe don't have the money
to get their hands on the vaccine first.
The idea that countries are gonna buy
and have a vaccine first
can lead to something called vaccine nationalism,
and a lot of people are coming together,
ethicists, scientists, to try and figure out
codes of conduct, and actually think about it
from a administrative level,
how we can share this vaccine,
because if there's one thing that we've learned
in the process of going through a global pandemic,
is that you're only as strong as your weakest link.
The WHO is suggesting that we give the vaccine
to countries based on their population,
starting with 3% of their population,
and moving towards 20% of their population,
across the world,
starting with health care workers
and people who are over 65.
And some other administrative policies are thinking,
why don't we just focus
on how many people are above 65 in populations,
how many healthcare workers there are,
and just inoculate them in every country.
But again, this is interesting,
because from a socioeconomic perspective,
wealthier countries actually have more healthcare workers,
and they actually have older populations.
So then again,
are we leaving non-wealthier countries out?
This has led to something called the fair priority model,
which is designed by ethicists and scientists,
and it's a code of conduct
that we can talk to politicians,
and you can now understand
to place yourself in 2021,
when these conversations are starting to happen.
The fair priority model is designed to limit harm,
prioritize the disadvantaged,
and give equal moral concern to all individuals.
The need for this type of document and concept
is because, inevitably, wealthy nations
are going to end up with the vaccine first.
So right now, there are a lot
of international organizations, G20 leaders coming together
to figure out how they can not draw
lines in the sand with the borders
when it comes to how we bring this vaccine to the world.
In fact, many people are applauding India right now
as a country that makes so many vaccines,
they are already figuring out how they can set enough aside
for people and nations that will need them.
Many of these manufacturing companies
are gonna be thinking about the highest bidder
when it comes to administering the vaccine.
But I think it's important that we understand
how many have been ordered from Canada and America,
more than the population,
so we have to make sure we aren't hoarding these things,
and understanding that the world is succumbing to COVID-19,
not just the countries that we live in.
And no matter what country you are in,
there's gonna be a focus on individuals who are over 65,
healthcare workers, teachers,
and the immunocompromised first,
before the general public is administered with the vaccine.
And so for these reasons, there is a good chance
that next year, we'll have an approved vaccine,
but you might not have got it.
But that doesn't mean that we're not gonna be
well on our way to inoculating the world,
or at least getting some of these systems in place
to figure out how we're gonna do it,
and, we also just may be totally wrong.
Something else could happen.
Again, this is all so unknown.
This is just based on the most current up-to-date research
about how this vaccine will be administered.
I personally am obsessed with this information,
because it gives me solace.
It kind of helps me be a little bit more at peace
to sort of understand what experts are saying,
what the smartest people in the room are saying,
and to prepare myself for what to expect.
For example, maybe not getting a vaccine
for another year, in order to plan my life.
Now, some people, I think ignorance is bliss.
I have friends asking me about the vaccine,
and when I tell them this information, they're like,
I wish I didn't know that,
so it's not for everyone,
but if you know people in your life
who you think would appreciate the preparation,
or at least this understanding,
feel free to share this with them.
Either way, this is fascinating, world-changing information
that is going to be necessary
as we figure out how to bring a vaccine
to the world for a global pandemic.
Oh my God, 2020 needs to peace out,
and hopefully 2021 is better.