﻿Ukraine is fighting for its existence. As the Ukrainian army gears up on military drone,
deadly missiles, like this Next-Generation Light Anti-armour Weapon or NLAW and armored vehicles,
such as this M2 Bradley, one of the fastest IFVs out there armed with the terrifyingly
accurate M242 25 mm autocannon, they seem to be doing a pretty good job at fighting off Putin’s
aggressive attempts to take over their homeland. A REALLY good job. Wait. Could Ukraine actually
win this war? And what will happen if they do? According to military experts and an increasingly
nervous Putin Ukraine's victory in this war possible, maybe even probable. Let’s find out
why, starting with the ‘here and now’. At this point, everybody is waiting for Spring,
especially the lion-hearted Ukrainian army. Why? Well, the war, mostly confined to the
country’s easternmost Donbass region, has been characterized by winter sieges in and
around devastated cityscapes like Soledar and Bakhmut. These battles have been inconclusive
for both sides. “It’s a controlled situation,” one Ukrainian unit commander remarked. “Sometimes
it’s really better to take a step back…then after that to make a counter attack and crush
the enemy. Each day we’re destroying enemy positions…People are tired…but their hearts
are burning still. We have work to do.” Things won’t go on like this forever. Ukraine
has a plan and it starts with tanks. Right now, Ukraine and Russia are both
using the winter months to rest and resupply their exhausted troops, injecting new soldiers into the
fight ahead of larger scale operations slated for the spring. With some officials claiming Russia
will soon thrust its 300,000 new conscripts into an imminent new offensive, Ukraine is earnestly
preparing its own defensive lines from which it can repel the Russian assault and, with time,
stage its own sweeping counteroffensive using newly-donated main battle tanks.
Ukraine’s list of successes is already long…and continues to grow. It won the battle of Kyiv,
defended Mykolaiv, and kept the Russians out of Odessa. After steadily pushing the Russians
eastward throughout the summer, it staged brilliant campaigns to liberate Kharkiv and
Kherson. If Ukraine’s future counter offensives manages to repeat the outcome of those conducted
in 2022, victory could be right around the corner. But victory can take many forms. What
would it ultimately look like for Ukraine? Ukrainian President Volodymr Zelensky has
been clear that victory for him means a full restoration of its territory as it existed before
Russia’s invasion, even if it means that Russia continues its illegal occupation of Crimea—the
rocky Black Sea peninsula that would be incredibly difficult to liberate by military force.
If Ukraine’s fighting power continues to grow, there are two likely operational
scenarios for how the war might end. The first is the most likely, something
policy analysts have called “winning small.” In this outcome, Ukrainian forces essentially
succeed in restoring the “status quo that existed before Russia launched its attack
in February”—expelling all Russian forces east of the Dnieper River, securing its
access to the Black Sea, and even possibly breaking Russia’s land bridge to Crimea.
When you’ve got a bunch of tanks, missiles, drones and other crazy weapons at your
disposal AND you know how to use them tactfully, such a victory is possible.
And Ukraine’s got all of that and then some. Kyiv’s use of first-rate Western intelligence
has been beyond impressive. Its integration of what can only be described as a huge variety of
Western firearms and other weapon systems—from HIMARS to HARM missiles and howitzers alike—has
been nothing short of peerless. Its dogged determination and commitment to fighting
the long fight has seen them break down Russian morale, force new waves of Russian conscription,
and make many tactical gains from the little means at their disposal. Will all of this be
enough to win back what is rightfully Ukraine’s? Hopefully far from an outcome that might induce a
trigger-happy Putin to resort to nuclear escalation, the “winning small” scenario
would nevertheless signal the potential for “smaller and militarily weaker states” to repel
aggressive, Neo-imperial neighbors. Now let’s talk about winning big.
Given the relatively limited territorial constraints in the “winning small” victory
scenario, you can probably imagine the scope of its “winning big” counterpart. In this scenario,
the war ends entirely on Ukraine’s terms, meaning that the liberation of Crimea and
even occupied parts of the Donbass Russia held for eight years prior to its 2022
invasion would be back on the table. What would need to happen for Ukraine
to fully claim the championship belt? For starters, it would have to answer a
line of lingering questions regarding its combat potential to win big. They’d have to attack,
not defend, significant swathes of land, some of it predominantly accessible only
amphibiously in the case of Crimea. Russia would doggedly cling to these stolen possessions,
legitimizing symbols of Putin’s waning great-power status in the eyes of the world.
In a Foreign Affairs article discussing these outcomes, Liana Fix and Michael
Kimmage argued that “The stars would have to truly align for a wholesale defeat of Russia:
a lightning victory for Ukraine, one battle building upon another, Russian supply lines
disintegrating and Ukrainian morale driving its soldiers unstoppably forward. At the same
time the Russian army would have to collapse in retreat. Strategy would give way to the emotions
of individual soldiers as panic took hold.” Regardless of which version of Ukraine’s victory
would ultimately play out, one thing’s for sure: things wouldn’t end there.
The consequences of a Ukrainian victory would be far reaching, regardless of the scale. Russian
defeat would bring nearly unbearable national shame. Raging Russian hardliners will push
Putin to deploy everything in his power to salvage something from his “special military operation.”
But everything may not be enough. As the infamy of defeat spreads throughout Russia,
a population long-shielded from the truth of Putin’s war by the Kremlin’s venomous
cast of propagandists will become aware of the desperate state of affairs. Discontent could
foment into open rebellion. Rebellion could spawn revolution. Can Putin hold on to his power?
On the flip side, Ukrainian victory would not only vindicate the billions of dollars in aid
and materiel donated by the West, it would signal Ukraine’s reliability and resilience as a partner
and possible ally. Could Ukraine officially join NATO and the EU? Would these decisions force a
desperate Russia into out-and-out nuclear war? Before we explore these possibilities further,
we should be clear that even if Ukraine wins small, the conflict would be unlikely to
actually “end.” Forecasting his country’s future, President Zelensky has argued that Ukrainians
everywhere would need to remain vigilant and prepared for decades of perpetual conflict,
likening Ukraine to “Israel in its full-time orientation toward self-defense.”
Shorn of his conventional military power, Putin—or whoever is in control of Russia
after Ukraine emerges victorious—would almost assuredly seek to use every other option at their
disposal to make life miserable for Ukraine. This is Russia’s MO. Cyberattacks and propaganda will
target Ukrainian elections, disinformation campaigns will undermine specific political
candidates the Kremlin deems dangerous. Perhaps the biggest question associated with
a possible Ukrainian victory is whether Vladimir Putin’s authoritarian regime
can survive outright defeat at all? After two decades of escalatory and
obsessive expansionist behavior, he’s now staked everything on Ukraine. Promises to
Putin’s ardent followers of newfound global prestige, prosperity, and the enshrinement of
a Neo-Soviet Russian bloc to counter NATO in the West in the highly anticipated event of
a Russian victory have all but faded. Russian defeat would sound the death knell to Putin’s
lofty aspirations and could usher in the complete disintegration of his political support system.
Political loyalty from his inner circle has thus far enabled Putin to retain control over all
facets of Russian society. Ukrainian victories have already exposed cracks in this tight-knit
hierarchy. Certain members have voiced their discontent over the course of the war. Ramzan
Kadyrov, leader of the Chechen Republic, was among them last November when he openly
criticized Russia’s military leadership after a slew of battlefield setbacks. Yevgeny Prigozhin,
leader of the Wagner Group, a private paramilitary organization, agreed with
Kadyrov—a sign of unraveling support sure to be exacerbated by future Ukrainian success.
Putin’s downfall would have severe repercussions. Political chaos would result from his ousting,
and the ensuing highly contested power struggle would divide Russian society
to the core. There is a chance a new strongman might take his place, likely a Kremlin insider.
Their rise would result in similar actions among Western nations to try and limit their economic,
political, and social influence. That said, there is a chance the
downfall of Putin’s regime could result in the appointment of a far more conciliatory leader,
one more inclined to repair Russia’s damaged relationship with its neighbors and the rest
of the world. The subsequent easing of sanctions could help stabilize an economy
that struggles more with each passing month. Plenty of historical examples from past Russian
military failures indicate that Russian defeat would result in some sort of seismic political
shift. Russian defeats to Japan in 1905, the Central Powers in 1917, and Afghanistan in
1979 generated significant political pushback—even revolutionary change. Who is to say the same might
not happen if Russia loses this war, too? Let’s talk about another possible post-war
scenario. What if Ukraine officially becomes Europe’s Eastern frontier? Yep,
we’re talking about EU/NATO integration. An enduring characteristic of the conflict
thus far has been Ukraine’s increasing alignment with the West on political, military,
and economic matters. Zelensky knows his country’s future hinges on his ability to extract as much
material aid from sympathetic onlookers around the globe and in times of serious crisis he has proven
himself an adept fundraiser and motivator. Zelensky is also playing the long game. The
only way Ukraine can ever fully feel safe from Russian aggression is if it receives
the full support and backing of the NATO alliance. And the only way it can get that
is if it becomes a NATO member itself. This was once considered a pipe dream—an
absolutely impossible scenario, a red line NATO would not cross. Before 2022, Ukrainian membership
in the transatlantic alliance was considered far too threatening to Russian security interests.
Ukraine actually applied for limited membership in 2008, but the application was postponed during the
election of its next president, Yiktor Yanukovych, who opted to keep Ukraine out of NATO. But then
Russia invaded in 2014, painting itself as the aggressor and Ukraine as a victim. Ever since,
Ukraine has framed itself as a perfect NATO candidate—and after their performance against
Russia so far, it’s sort of hard to disagree. Last year changed everything.
NATO countries are now donating weapons and equipment in vast quantities. As Ukraine
becomes more proficient on these systems, they will become even more interoperable with Western
partners—bolstering their case for membership. Last September, Ukraine officially applied to
join NATO with public support at an all time high. Today, more than 85% of Ukrainians see it in their
country’s best interest to join the Alliance. Membership hinges on many factors. Though nine
NATO members have voiced their desire for Ukraine to join, it is almost certain the Alliance will
not accept Ukraine's application while they are currently at war—as doing so would oblige each
NATO country to deploy forces to Ukraine itself, an escalatory step those country’s political
leaders would be leery to take. “The prospect of Ukraine joining NATO remains the third rail of
international politics,” one journalist noted. “Touching the issue can leave you burned.”
Instead, they’ll continue supporting Ukraine materially until it emerges victorious, and then
come to a unanimous decision on NATO membership. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has
claimed “The most immediate and urgent task is to ensure that Ukraine prevails as a sovereign,
independent democratic nation of Europe.” If it did win the war, Ukraine will have silenced
the doubters over its worthiness to join NATO. Having done more fighting against a peer adversary
than every NATO member combined, fast-tracking Ukraine into the multinational body would make
logical sense—if anything to deter Russia from ever trying to invade the country again.
Here’s another highly likely outcome of Ukraine winning the war: Russia suffers a total and
humiliating political and economic collapse. Ukraine is already marching down the path toward
democratic prosperity, an outcome that would be accelerated in victory. Ukraine’s heroic
fight has united the west in support against Russia. Consequently, Ukraine has come to enjoy
its closest diplomatic relationships with western officials in the country’s history.
Zelensky has traveled all over the world garnering support in their fight for freedom,
inspiring audiences and leaders whose countries have waged similar struggles against oppression.
Just as likely as it is for Russia’s political and economic system to shatter in the wake of
a Ukrainian victory, Ukraine’s democracy would likely flourish. On February 28,
2022, just a few days after Russia’s invasion, Ukraine officially applied to
join the European Union. At a recent EU-Ukraine summit—“the first to take place on Ukrainian
soil,” Ukraine expressed interest in securing EU membership within a “tight two-year timetable.”
Most EU members know this proposal is wishful thinking—with French President Emmanuel Macron
claiming it will be “‘decades’ before Ukraine joins,” likening their case to those of Serbia,
Turkey, and Montenegro who are still waiting for membership. But most people would have
dismissed Poland’s chances of ever joining the EU when it was locked in its own struggle
for freedom in the 1980s; within a decade after the dissolution of the Soviet Union,
Poland officially joined NATO in 1999 and the EU several years later. Other Baltic states
have a similar trajectory. All of them support Ukraine’s membership, for obvious reasons.
EU nations fear Ukrainian membership will “dilute their own powers and perks.” With
Ukraine and Poland boasting “a combined population of 80 million,” there is a
sense they “could team up to rival Germany as a political force in the European Council” or
“become an excessive drain on the EU budget.” Nobody can deny, however, Ukraine’s eagerness to
align itself with the West. Of course, nothing speaks louder than victory. If the process to
join the EU is merit-based, Ukraine will continue to strive to meet each of the EU Commissions’
conditions. It will become easier once it can focus more of its energies inward on rebuilding,
ousting corruption, and reforming its democratic systems after years of warfare.
So. What does it all boil down to? The outcome of Russia’s war in Ukraine
is sure to have massive consequences for the entire globe. These outcomes hinge on whether
Ukraine “wins big” or “wins small”—assuming it wins at all. But if victory is in the cards,
does that mean the end of Putin’s political future? Might NATO or EU membership be in
the offing for Ukraine? Will victory herald in an even greater embrace of western values
among everyday Ukrainians? What do you think? Let us know in the comments and don’t forget
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