Sunday Eric both thank you for sparing
the time to join us the day after the
government published its immigration
plans to those people who are saying
what people wanted was control not
necessarily a drop in the numbers we we
had someone from vote leave on the
program last night saying that all they
wanted was control we had Nigel Farrar
saying no they wanted numbers down who's
right and does it look like this policy
will do them what they hope it'll do
different leaders wanted different
things and so does control mean reduce
for Boris Johnson's view is that control
is what mattered those people want
reductions in immigration are selective
reducers they don't want to reduce
students they don't want to reduce
high-skilled immigration they don't want
to reduce scientists they want to have
more immigration of the type that the
Prime Minister is letting in some people
then say but the numbers really need to
fall and other people are saying if I've
controlled the flows I want that's what
I was doing so ago we've got a much more
granular immigration debate which comes
down to the politics of low skilled and
semi-skilled immigration from the EU
there's actually a big consensus across
parties now with the government having
dropped the net migration target that
students guild migration or what we're
debating that's where the public always
were so I think Boris Johnson has
shifted in the direction of the public
there's a bridging agenda there probably
half of the leave vote felt very
strongly that they wanted big reductions
in numbers other bits of the leave vote
thought that it was the pace of low
skilled and semi-skilled immigration
they were worried about okay do you
think this does the trick politically
from serving the voters that helped
Boris Johnson win the referendum and win
nealandjune lives well I don't think it
is about control only actually I think
it means you look what I think's
happened is you've got a liberalisation
of attitudes within a part of the
British electorate that voted remain or
they voted for the Labour Party or
Liberal Democrats but you haven't seen
that liberalisation in the part of the
electorate that voted for Johnson they
voted for brexit for example this is the
kind of polarization party polarization
of immigration attitudes we see in the
United States and Canada for example I
think something similar is occurring in
Britain you compare 2010 and 2019 from
what I've seen the
gap between labour and conservative
voters on the question of whether
immigration should be reduced has
doubled in size so I think those voters
for Johnson and for brexit do want a
reduction and I don't think that
question is gonna go away but what I
would say is that we're in an unusual
moment now because brexit and the
economic future of Britain and the
political future of Britain what people
are talking about and so quite naturally
the immigration issue has dropped down
the agenda the question we need to ask
is in perhaps a year's time when if
brexit is a success economically and
that's a big if but if it is a pretty
successful
the sort of leave voting Brooks's or
johnson supporting side you're going to
see the profile of immigration rising
the salience what we would say is how
long how high a priority is immigration
yes you want less of it but as an issue
compared to health care and the economy
where does it rank for you and I think
you you will see a higher ranking if
brexit is an economic success has gone
down from issue number one to three to
issue number ten also hasn't it than
some of the polling at the moment you
think what's gonna bring it back up well
so so the priority of an issues
determined by a number of things I mean
one is his immigration numbers a second
is competing issues so if you're in an
economic recession or brexit happens
that's dominating headlines immigration
is not in the headlines it's gonna drop
as a priority but if these other issues
particularly brexit drops off the
headlines there is a question what then
replaces it as the issue people are
talking about I would suspect that
immigration will be an issue that is
going to be talked about more
if economically brexit is is fine and
people stop talking and worrying about
it so in a way the salience of brexit
has crowded out the salience of
immigration we can see similar dynamics
if we look at the EU little fugitives I
think all the things I think other
things have changed salience if you go
back to 2010 11 and 2/3 of the
electorate was saying we don't talk
about this enough I'm not sure we're
allowed to talk about if you're at the
very liberal end of the debate you see I
don't want been banging on about it for
decades I don't think that's true it's
much much harder on people much less
likely to say now when
allowed to talk about immigration
because we had to concern a bit yeah so
it's cathartic in a way and it felt
powerful to people that were the prime
minister or the treasurer we thought you
should vote one way they could vote the
other way once you do that you've got
the control you've got a much more
pragmatic granular debate because people
want control selectivity but they want
to be pragmatic therefore care but
that's a big part of the job done as far
as you see it yes it's still polarized
politically because the voters that were
anti migration and labor have drifted
the Conservatives some of the
conservative remainders have gone to the
Liberal Democrats and so on but the
salience stopped and this is very
different from America where would Bob
Donald Trump tweeting about it the
Democrats very excited about it
both sides are really you know flaming
up there's a lot more people in Britain
most people in putting up balancers most
people in Britain see pressures of
immigration gains of immigration are
making distinctions between immigration
that they don't have a problem with at
all and immigration where it makes a
contribution but you want to control it
i I think there's definitely some truth
to what you say in terms of which
categories of immigration the voters are
keener on and less keen on but I think
even within that there is a desire for
for limited numbers that is important
and I think it's important electric
Electra Li in America again it's the
Republican side where you have very high
salience of immigration much more so
than the Democrat side and similarly
here that issues going to matter a lot
more to your leave voter for example
Jones and voter I think the the other
thing to bear in mind is that because a
lot of brexit a lot of brexit voters
think that once you have control numbers
are going to fall the expectation is
that yes we have control but control
also means reduced numbers in some of
the surveys that I've done for example
if you tell people that post brexit
numbers are not going to fall who are
you gonna vote for a lot of the voters
for exactly this was in 2017 a lot of
the voters from you clip that went over
to the Conservatives are gonna said they
would go back to you Kip and so I
suspect there is a very significant and
important group of voters who if after
brexit someone says hey look the numbers
haven't come down the government's in
control but they're admitting these
numbers it's not a real it's not what we
voted for and we've already seen
editorials from the
like Sabine Duncan Smith saying you know
we're importing a million people every
three years and so on Boris Johnson in
the referendum campaign said we're
importing the city the size of New
Castle Obama's Johnson's changed his
mind this time in office so on day one
he says the net migration targets bond
it's quite sensible to ditch it you've
missed it 39 quarters it's not about
money it's not credit at all I'm not
going to play a numbers game and
actually enter the general election
campaign saying we will curb low-skilled
immigration it's during the campaign
they then say and overall numbers will
fall never tell you yesterday was saying
no visible form and this is what they
couldn't tell us by yes you buy her mark
and I'm thinking when if you read their
manifesto the policy package won't cut
the numbers it will give you different
controls because the immigration is
going to cut out you low-skilled
immigration has fallen away a lot since
the referendum because the value of the
pound and so on and they are they are
loosening the policy on popular non-eu
skilled migration that their policy is
to increase the flows of the immigration
that is currently high and to curb the
immigration that dropped significantly
and if 24 is going to be allowed to even
go first abroad and look abroad for
skilled workers and not here and these
are then Eric something that you think
voters will be okay with weird as
another way of asking where does the
concern about immigration really come
from well I mean what I would say is the
academic literature shows pretty clearly
that the main driver of immigration
tends to be psychological and cultural
rather than economic so late can we put
that in layman's term okay so so care
around the community in feigning people
that look like you well ethnically do
ethnic change yes ethnic change now it's
not it may not be race it could be
language it could be religion but what I
would say is so just as a sample
question I'll give you a question which
says if you ask brexit voters how
important an issue for you is pressure
on public services zero not important at
all 100 extremely important you get
about a 49 or 50 out of a hundred
moderately important issue if you just
drop two words
putting pressure on public services it's
up to sort of 70 or 75 so why would
obviously the part of the problem of
pressure on public services accounted
for by immigration must be smaller than
the problem of public services it makes
no sense except if you if you understand
that the immigration attitudes are
formed for views on public services and
public services then come to be colored
by one's views on immigration so it's
not the pressure per se on economics or
competition for jobs that's driving
these attitudes it's much more about
these subtler psychological and cultural
drives and that's one of the reasons why
I'm very skeptical of the idea that
talking about skills or the economic
impacts is really getting at the drivers
that are actually shifting politic but
if the people who are coming into the
country are blatantly super middle-class
better-better earners highly skilled
contributing to the National Treasury
take and the rest of it through their
taxes and by definition you think not
putting a pressure on services because
they're actually their contributions
outweigh the pressure people still gonna
go with that because that seems to be
the gamble that Boris Johnson is making
you you say not I really don't think
they will I mean I think they will to
some extent obviously yes if immigrants
by the way who already generally are
contributing more than they're taking
away so I actually but this won't paid
once yes yeah but I think though that
it's ultimately these material factors
are not what drive opinion and so for
example I've done another study where
we've said okay do you you know if
immigration remains the same after
brexit same levels or even increases
slightly but the skill mix goes up are
you happy with that and that does reduce
opposition to some degree to immigration
but when you introduce for example that
this is gonna bring a faster rate of
ethno-cultural change then all of a
sudden you get a shift by 20 as much as
20 25 points in attitudes because once
that framing comes in it changes
people's outlook so I think yes people
want skilled compared to unskilled but
within a context in which that cultural
change that they're seeking to slow down
occurs so I'm
the question I can't predict exactly
when we're gonna start to see this new
narrative it's not necessarily gonna be
framed in cultural terms because that's
very contentious and that can be easily
labeled as racist so it's gonna be very
difficult there will be a narrative it
might be that we were betrayed and we
voted for brexit we didn't get them do
you think it's coming let's see what
what the wheel driver was over 15 and 20
years was that the British public lost
confidence in whether their governments
were competent on the question of
immigration and they had good reasons to
lose confidence you had you had Labor
Government's that had no idea at all
that the flow of East European migrants
was going to come and then the public
feel they were very slow to respond to
that 2004 2008 you then heard a
government with David Cameron and too
easily and they said we've got a plan we
will sort that out hundreds of thousands
out tens of thousands in leave it to us
and of course the opposite happen so
there is good evidence the public that
the politicians have not had a grip and
said things no confidence no so do you
get your answer and why is a point
system and Australians hard point
systems so incredibly resonant everybody
has heard of that it stands for control
it sounds for selectivity and it stands
for pragmatism almost everyone in this
country knows somebody who lives in
Australia or something else as well I do
remember something on the boat leave
campaign telling me to maybe go there
that the word Association of Australia
was white country no that's that's
inaccurate I think because the
skills-based preference is across NGOs
that smells like they can have that
perception but the skills preference is
across ethnic groups so black and Asian
voters will say we prefer skills and
obviously they won't say my country
doesn't look like my country anymore and
other voters might say we prefer skills
in the comparative data the British
public has the strongest skills
preference of any of any European public
there are some ethno-cultural
preferences when we start to think about
when we start to think about family
migration flows of assignment on the
whole the skills preference seems to be
real and therefore if you you split the
sampling your four people Pakistani
doctors and Polish doctors and Pakistani
plumbers and Polish plumbers there
driven a lot by the skill level when
they make the choices so as Eric says
there are you know difficult issues
people have about adjusting to change
but if you go and offer them would you
like some ethnic preferences in your
immigration policy that's the last thing
we want we actually have got away from
that we're trying to treat everybody
fairly and the breaks it voters feel
their own reputation for fairness is
actually at stake if you start saying to
them is it really racial about they want
to say no it really isn't it's about
it's about integration and pressure on
services and you know integration people
should join our community and become
like us yeah I think we need to as say a
social scientists step away from what
people say necessarily and look at sort
of correlations with attitude so people
might say in the brexit vote say it was
about sovereignty but we know the
correlation with immigration attitudes
is actually just one strongest
correlations in these girls say it was a
bang operation they will say it's about
immigration but then well they mean
control they don't they don't mean any
newsletters though I will say India and
Australia I'm not just shown to be a
couple of things one is social
desirability what is it more acceptable
rationale right it's much more
acceptable to say it's about pressure on
services then it is about cultural
change the other thing is that when you
ask a question compare immigrant one to
immigrant - the only difference is color
that's a different question of course
people are gonna choose the skilled
person but when you talk about aggregate
effects then this is what's going to be
the aggregate shift of immigration not
immigrants but immigration that's gonna
change the nature of the answer now so I
just there are two problems without
exposition I think one is I had a very
interesting experience of this where
Lord Ashcroft had 100 members of the
public we have me and migration watch
presenting and then the final migration
watch slide was a slide that said with
high immigration by 2050 there won't be
a white majority in this country anymore
and it wasn't the Liberals in the group
that actually pushed back on that it was
the migration skeptics they said we've
stopped with D linked it from race
you're making it all about race don't do
that so Eric might be true that they've
got an underlying desire but if they
then say we don't we don't want that if
you wanted an immigration system that
preferred white migrants but didn't say
it was doing that you would choose
European free movement where nine-tenths
of the migrants who
be white but you've got a perfectly good
rationale of the single market access
and so on and people didn't want that
they actually wanted a balance between
European migration and Commonwealth
migration which is both Australian and
India what I would say is that when you
actually even asked leave voters about
levels coming from the EU and outside
the EU which in their mind might include
you know North America Australia even
though those sources don't actually send
any significant numbers you will find
actually a slight preference even
amongst leave voters for EU migrants
over known to you what I will say here
is that again you have to get away from
what is an acceptable or socially
desirable thing to say wanna see then
just eject it well just a second I say
I've been so busy I don't want them
because it's not socially designed no
but what they do into quite what the
reason that I'm in why I would argue the
reason that they prefer lower numbers is
because of this pace of cultural change
and incidentally if we do look at
countries i'm canadian if you look at
canada if you look at Australia in New
Zealand the immigration issue is
actually an important issue there and is
very much a partisan issue and again and
it's just the narrative is different it
may not be as much about competition for
jobs but it will be about population
pressure housing prices
social cohesion so it's a different
narrative the other thing to point out
is of course that the numbers are
considerably higher in those societies
under a point system so I don't know
what I would say is I would expect the
UK debate to move more in the direction
of the Canadian New Zealand type
immigration debate and less in a debate
over safe low-skilled plumbers or
something like that but you you've
written a bike shift which is talking
about what you think the simile is for
the foreseeable future an ever-present
anxiety amongst white populations in
North America in Europe that they're
going to be outnumbered well right so
this is the backdrop this is really the
backdrop now what I'm saying is you know
solution to that is to sort of start
thinking about a trans racial racially
mixed majority group but that takes time
and it takes assimilation and so the
question is
it's a question of speed of assimilation
versus speed of immigration and and yes
ultimately this is a cultural
predominantly cultural issue and not in
my view of predominantly economic issues
and other bases this beast the
immigration issue is going to be with us
according to your definition for a very
long time and and yesterday was an
insignificant blip in it in the history
is that I think it I think we're not in
a normal time in the sense that the
brexit debate is elevating concerns over
the economy and that with the
relationship with the EU other things
are in the news and people's
expectations about what's gonna happen
immigration post brexit are shaped by
this idea once we have control
immigration will be what I think I'd
like if that doesn't materialize I don't
know we don't materialize I think we're
going to have a different political
situation and I think the Johnson
government could be vulnerable to a you
kippa brexit party style force on its
right flank like we see in continental
Europe and I think that would change the
politics of the UK incidentally I should
say that electorates in the West are
realigning very much on these cultural
issues around national identity
immigration I don't think Britain is
that different you say we'd saw in the
December election yeah I mean if you
compare 2010 and 2019 and you look at
the shift in constituencies towards the
Conservatives I mean these are
constituencies that have the
conservative views on immigration that
tend to vote leave exception I think the
answer to the anxieties that Eric is
talking about is when you've been got
the immigration system that seems to
make those choices is then to say why
don't we have an integration debate as
well because we've never had an in
generation strategy in this country go
back 50 years to Enoch Powell and the
somatic by-election what the
conservative candidate made
controversies maybe garlicy say we don't
want integration go away I don't want
those people to live next door to me and
be like me and obviously integration is
now a positive thing and people's
confidence in integration in Britain in
France in Austria in Germany affects
their appetite for for for further
immigration if you feel that people are
integrating them we'll carry on with
that but then if you want the migrants
to be able to become us they're part of
your group I think Whitney is a bit
different in this populist
strand from some of the other
continental European countries because
we've had a different race debate over
the last two or three generations than
they've had in some European countries
Nigel Farage's at the edge of the
mainstream in Britain he's a populist in
the European Parliament he's gotten the
most multi-ethnic group of any of the
party groups not just among the populist
parties but among the Christian
Democrats and he celebrates that because
the British populist party has to
observe British race norms in a way that
the French National Front probably
doesn't have you're saying this is all
about white communities
feeling threatened but actually the
immigration make the makeup of his group
has was in the European Parliament and
the boat that win for breaks it some of
it driven by immigration is you know
there were lots of be any people who
saying they were concerned about
immigration as well right so you really
have two units of analysis one is the
sort of majority ethnic groups which is
might be the white British and the other
are is the nation say Britain as a whole
the territorial nation and you will have
ethnic minorities who are attached to
Britain
perhaps in its present form who will
also feel that an influx is gonna change
that it's not the only concern they have
but part of it is that it's their nation
to which is changing and they too can
respond their national identity is
affected as well what I would say is the
Sanders right that the key to this is
integration but my worry is that we have
very very few successful examples of
scaleable national integration policies
that have worked I mean there have been
a lot of lots of discussions for 50
years about these integration policies
there is what I think actually matters
more is a simulation that is
intermarriage and mixing at the deep
level which can take a number of
generations to actually occur
that is really what lowers the
temperature on the mixed-race desolation
in Britain I mean I've got Irish an
Indian parents it's doubled from one
since the last it will double again
that's not the only time a helicopter so
10 attentive relationships in this
country or or mixed ethnicity and so
that's again it so it's a different
thing but you know we we've got a mixed
record on integration in Britain in
different ways but with the own
country with the level of ethnic
minority presence across the political
spectrum left and right in the British
Cabinet I'm you know we've got two Asian
Chancellor's two Asian home secretaries
I mean hopefully non Asian people get
the chance to be chance from the Home
Secretary as well so basically it's the
crisis the long crisis the Arab forces
stretching people confidence then is
there is a great deal of social distance
and concern about Muslim integration and
then there is a great deal of concern
among Muslim communities about where the
British Muslims are being offered a fair
shot equal opportunity equal ident
you'll have to jump extra bars that
Hindus and Sikhs don't get the job so
there's a conversation we need to have
about the people we feel most distant
from the people we don't know what do
you think Eric was talking there about
how the Tories need to make sure that
they're not outflanked on the right or
on this and that has been very much a
governing sort in right-wing parties in
the bank of Merkel headed over in
Germany and I think it's fair to say to
reason they probably had it here are you
impressed so far by the rhetoric of
Boris Johnson you say that we need a
different agenda talking about
assimilation if we're going to talk
about immigration
he hasn't is it fair to say recently
used some of the language which you
might have expected of a leader who
wants to own that bit of didn't
political terrain and make sure there's
nothing to the right of him are you
impressed youth what do you think is his
direction of travel he has a self
conception himself as a moderate liberal
global facing people his opponents will
say why did you say that about
letterboxes and so on and I think he
will behave differently as Prime
Minister than he did as a columnist and
so on but that that issue of you know he
he's aware that sort of political
correctness going too far and not being
allowed to say things that people want
to hear that he's allowed to say what he
says he's also aware I think that we
that we observe norms that the
Conservative Party of the Johnson may
Cameron era is is a is a transformed
party because it wanted to be open
Parliament airily to people from every
ethnic background people from every
class background people said the
Conservatives would never do that
they're actually the only European
center-right party that has done that
and that is a point of pride
him and you know that that's that that's
quite important so I think I think he
has in his own mind he's you know he
sees the future of Britain as
multi-ethnic and then you want a
confident wave Union Jack sort of London
2012 Olympics view of that the left says
he isn't there at all and actually he's
playing some dark agenda I mean the
proofs the proofs in the pudding I've
you say darker for judges and lawyers
than he is to go for some long term
basis yes I do think there's a
difference between the Johnson strand of
the brexit movement which i think is
actually relatively narrow in terms of
if we look at the brexit voting base I
think it's it's quite different from the
outlook of the sort of libertarian
global Britain type who tend to be in
the elite of the movement and the real
question is whether that contradiction
can be maintained as we go forward I'm
not sure without strong pressure on the
brexit issue that that can that
contradiction can be maintained I think
right now the the base is giving him
give it cutting him slack because you
know he's fighting for Britain and
getting wants to get a good deal for
Britain I would think it would might it
would be a different landscape once that
deal has been inked if brexit is an
economic success I just I think that you
know you can look at certainly there's
been assimilation and mixing
particularly the afro-caribbean
community but I I think the way these
things play out tends to take a long
time and if you look at the American
example if you take the Catholic
large-scale Catholic wave of immigration
to the United States I mean he actually
took from the late 19th century right
through till john f kennedy's election a
little bit later for that group to
become completely assimilated into
American life and concerns over
immigration to really really abate I
just skeptical that in yes we have
plenty of examples of very well
integrated economically integrated
minorities and that's fantastic and
that's to the good but I don't think
that's the issue I mean the issue is
this deeper ethnic cultural assimilation
and it's question is how diverse how
much diversity and how how rapidly are
things change Erica's your demography
canals
an economic question with a big sweep of
history can we afford not to have the
sort of migration that we now look like
we're stopping given the demographics of
this country other countries as well um
I think so I mean I think ultimately
it's you know democratically uh it's
it's up to the population to decide
democratically if they go for a lower
migration option and the economy really
is damaged a debate can occur and people
can say okay let's increase the numbers
I don't think though that the issue that
immigration can address the aging
problem that's that's just not
demographically the case in the sense
that I think the EU did a report you
would have to bring in sort of tens of
millions of people to keep the age
structure the way it is because
immigrants come in and they age too and
therefore it's kind of like a house of
cards you all you're doing is delaying
the inevitable the the solution
ultimately is to get you know has to do
with the retirement age groups that are
not represented in the workforce need to
be in the workforce immigration is just
not a there's another way that the the
demographic cleavage which is wheeled if
demographic change is misunderstood it's
perceived as an argument between the 80%
white majority in the 15 20 % ethnic
minorities it's actually a big split
among the white population with a third
of the white population the younger
group the graduates have no interest at
all in a sort of white ethnic identity
and being celebration of diversity a
third of the white group really having
these very strong anxieties about the
pace of change and a large part of the
white group and the majority of the
ethnic minority group in the middle with
this balanced view yes the pace of
change is high if we work hard on
integration let's have people become
citizens
let's celebrate the monarchy and the NHS
and so on but a large part of the group
will go with that another part the group
will never go with that and you get some
very dark stuff on the ends of the
internet if you're thinking politically
you're not going to chase that group
which is shrinking without also thinking
oh I've got an intergenerational divide
we've got a growing number of graduates
got a fifth the first time voters who
are ethnic minorities and so having
built this worn off coalition for big
sit Boris Johnson is then thinking can I
ever get the children of Tory voters in
the South of England can I ever get
those
Asian and black voters who are paying
the top rate of tax are they going to be
offside and the Trump party has taken
one route which is to go there the
Canadian Conservative has taken another
if you're a British conservatives I
think you're going to want a
multi-ethnic voting coalition that
reaches and bridges those correct I
think that might be the case down the
road but I don't think that future has
arrived I think you're right that that
amongst the young population in amongst
the university educated population there
is a more liberal attitude a more Pro
diversity attitude but it is only a
tendency so there's still a significant
restriction estroux pwith in the young
within the university educated so I
think it's not not right to see those
groups as monolithic either and likewise
with ethnic minorities there's a
significant restriction estroux as we
see with say particularly Latino and
Asian Trump voters who are also very
restriction Astana migration so this is
you're right that there's change
demographically coming and perhaps the
median voter will be a bit different in
the future but certainly for the
foreseeable next few elections that
calculus is unlikely to play don't it
Cummings once articulated what do you
hope to achieve in this country as
avoiding what he thinks Europe's gonna
collapse under the pressures of its
internal contradictions not least the
fact that it has an awful lot of
migrants coming into it who can then
move around freely inside upsetting a
lot of the voters that you're talking
about Eric in your book
he thinks that brexit will Lance that
boil here and allow Britain actually
maintained some moderation in the great
scheme of history and a grateful nation
will no doubt carry him shoulder high
through the streets at the end of this
experiment does any of that sort of ring
true that maybe something has been
launched by brexit segments of
immigration has come down you say that
this approach that they're talking about
this week does address those issues the
Dominic Cummings may be on this one
right he's very effective political
campaigner take back control get breaks
it done these are very resonant slogans
what you didn't have after the
referendum in those frustrating three
years you then didn't have a government
with the mandates do it you found got a
vote leave government they've also got
to deliver the trade deals that go with
that
the immigration policy that goes with
that can you govern and remain populist
I think there were two very different
voices in the leave campaign you had
these well the moderate boys Johnson
Michael Gove Giesler Stewart sort of
it's about control it's about points is
about being welcoming we can launch the
boy you also had on the internet pushed
very hard this message about Turkey
watch out for Turkey watch out for the
Turks which obviously is the opposite of
the position right caused also and then
you you know you you sometimes just
combine those two messages so there are
these different audiences can a
government do that you know have
different voices for different audiences
or does it have to level on what is
going to do so I think I think you know
it is easy to is easier to campaign and
you know the other side of the argument
was all the bad at communicating with
the public but but you've now got to
take responsibility it's not just a
blame game you know to hung Parliament's
you weren't in charge now you'll say
it's the judges are measure well I think
I think it's very it's very early days I
think there's been a lot of over
excitement about the immigration reforms
yesterday I think the government said
this is really tough there'll be no low
skilled immigration business said much
the same thing it's actually it's it's a
much more sensible policy than they had
in the white paper because previously
there was going to be $30,000 cut off
and then if you're on a twenty thousand
job come for 12 months and go away again
you've actually if you're on 25,000
20,000 you'll actually be able to get
roots if you're a nursery teacher a
school assistant so and you'll be able
to get roots to settlement and
citizenships that's a better that's a
better policy there'll be a lot of
pragmatism a lot of devil in the detail
here whether you can sell that to the
voters who voted for control but control
is about what do you want then and
people are quite torn they want less
immigration but they want houses built
than they want care homes staffed and so
it's quite it's quite it gets more
difficult it gets more granular and
that's what takes the heat after the
debate breaks it happened Eric before
Trump was elected we were the we were
early adopters the country that was
supposed to be forever stable we seem to
sort of make what was labeled by some a
populist move at that time is it
possible we're first-in first-out
and that maybe it has launched the boil
I don't think so I think because this is
ultimately a structural thing and I
think we're only entering into a new
phase where cultural politics is gonna
have a higher profile simply because of
these demographic shifts and unanswered
questions about who are we right these
questions I do think brexit did play a
role though in deflecting some of that
sentiment into what you might think of
as more civic nationalism worried about
politics and economics rather than
cultural an ethnicity so in that sense
yes brexit did deflect but I don't think
it can do that job once it's off the
political agenda once it's off the
agenda we're into a new landscape and I
think that landscape will be less kind
to a Johnson style political globalizing
brexit and I think that's when you know
I think that's when we might see a more
continental style narrative emerging how
it emerges I I can't say for sure but I
would have thought that that all other
things being equal we might expect it
given what's going on in other a more
brazen populous well it may not be
brazen it may not be explicit it may
still use the language of it might use
the language of population pressure or
we're importing a million people every
three years or whatever it is a lot of
depend first of all on what is the
migration level what's going on with the
economy is brexit really off the table
in terms of a talking point whereas if
the government can pose as a defender of
brexit against the EU that can deflect
this sentiment but once that structural
narrative is gone then I think that's
when we are more likely to see this in
this kind of hot this is the great it's
the great challenge of politics in an
era of polarization and populism it's
really easy to have a 10% or 15%
project if you just want to speak to the
London Metropolitan and the Graduate
group about what a tragedy all of this
is if you just want to speak to the
hardest end of the brexit though you
don't do any compromising it's really
hard to have a governing project where
you're looking for 40 or 50 percent
that's the challenge for Kirsten or
Elise and Andy you know can the cities
and towns vote for the same live
government is exactly the same challenge
for Boris Johnson and Boris Johnson who
wants to go to the global conferences as
the mayor of London who believes you
know
and wants to represent and deliver for
Bligh Valiants about the cultural and
social distance in our country between
Kensington and Mansfield and Halifax and
Hampstead and so on but these are not
different planets both of these places
are voting for conservative parties and
labour parties and in some countries you
will see you know eight parties on 10%
each and then you've got to have a
negotiation so in Britain the job is the
job is to be a bridge er is Boris
Johnson going to be a better bridge
other than kir stahma
Lisa Nandi whoever the Labour Party put
up but those projects you're talking
about that might take away some of his
votes they're never going to govern the
country a sort of hyper cosmopolitan
agenda is never going to govern the
country but it can it can take away
votes that a governing party needs the
only thing I would say I agree with you
but I guess the issue is Johnson's
coalition now includes a very
significant number of brexit voting or
immigration skeptic voters in poor
working class what we seem to have seen
and we also saw it in the Trump vote is
that people who are skeptical about
immigration but are economically on the
Left seem to be more willing to go over
to the right than those who are
economically well-off but relatively
cosmopolitan so in that trade off the it
seems as though the sort of more
skeptical of immigration policy seems to
win out so my and and I guess just
looking at the Johnson Conservatives if
they're new voters are at risk of
leaving to a new formation and don't
forget brexit party you kept these these
have popped up very quickly voters are
quite willing you just drop the old
loyalties and go to new ones Ericsson
thank you very much indeed for sharing
your thoughts thanks very much very
grateful
you