AMNA NAWAZ: Iran's most prominent scientist, the man described by U.S. and Israeli intelligence
as the architect of that country's covert nuclear weapons program, was killed in an
apparent assassination today.
Nick Schifrin reports on who he was and why his death is so significant.
NICK SCHIFRIN: Amna, Iranian media reports that Mohsen Fakhrizadeh was driving east of
the capital, Tehran, when a car bomb exploded near his car and gunmen shot and killed him.
Analysts say he was the J. Robert Oppenheimer of Iran's nuclear program, its lead scientist,
coordinator and manager.
Western intelligence assessed the program was shelved in 2003.
But, in 2018, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu unveiled a stolen archive of Iran's
pre-2003 nuclear plans, and said Fakhrizadeh was responsible for continuing the program
secretly.
BENJAMIN NETANYAHU, Israeli Prime Minister: A key part of the plan was to form new organizations
to continue the work.
This is how Dr. Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, head of Project Amad, put it.
Remember that name, Fakhrizadeh.
NICK SCHIFRIN: Nobody has taken responsibility for his death, but, today, Iranian officials
accused Israel.
To discuss this, I'm joined by Norman Roule, who had a 34-year career at CIA, including
as station chief in the Middle East, and was the national intelligence manager for Iran
until September 2017.
Norman Roule, welcome to "NewsHour."
What's the significance to his killing and what is the impact on Iran's nuclear program?
NORMAN ROULE, Former U.S. Intelligence Official: Good evening.
The killing of the 59-year-old Iranian official removes from Iran its greatest institutional
memory on its weaponization program.
It will be very difficult for Iran to replace this, and it will actually impair their ability
to reestablish a weaponization program, should they decide to do so.
NICK SCHIFRIN: What's the message being sent by whoever killed him, and not only today,
but the recent death of a top al-Qaida figure reported in Tehran and mysterious explosions
throughout Iran, including at one of Iran's top nuclear facilities?
NORMAN ROULE: These incidents, as well as the killing of IRGC Quds Force General Qasem
Soleimani earlier this year messaged to Iran is that their most sensitive individuals,
personnel and issues are not beyond the reach of Western security services.
Ideally, it would tell Iranian officials that they should not undertake a covert nuclear
program or terrorist activities or maintain a broader relationship with al-Qaida, because
doing so would quickly come to the attention of Western institutions, intelligence organizations,
and Western governments would take immediate action, which Iran cannot prevent.
NICK SCHIFRIN: Critics of these kinds of killings have an argument, that they don't stop Iran's
nuclear program, in fact, they can create an incentive for iron to pursue a nuclear
program, and that assassinations might create short-term successes, but can have long-term
negative consequences.
What do you think about those criticisms?
NORMAN ROULE: I think it is questionable as to whether or not his assassination will encourage
Iran to undertake a nuclear weaponization program.
I think, in Tehran right now, anyone they might put in his place is probably wondering
at what point he or she would fall under the focus of Western institutions who might undertake
a similar assassination.
NICK SCHIFRIN: President-elect Biden and his team say they want to reenter the Iran nuclear
deal.
What do you make of the timing of this attack, just 54 days before inauguration?
NORMAN ROULE: A couple of points.
First, an attack of this nature would have taken a lot of time to plan.
So, this isn't something that would have initiated in the recent few weeks.
At the same time, I think its sends a message to the Iranians that regional players will
take security into their own hands if they believe the U.S. is unable or unwilling to
do so.
NICK SCHIFRIN: And so, therefore, does this have an impact, do you believe, on president-elect
Biden's plans to return to the Iran nuclear deal?
NORMAN ROULE: For the Iranians, the primary impetus to return to a nuclear is their need
for financial relief.
Particularly, they need to bolster their reserves to maintain their currency and the health
of their banking institutions.
I think, for the Biden administration, looking at this deal, they're going to have to respect
the security concerns of regional actors to a greater extent to avoid other incidents
such as this upsetting nuclear negotiations.
NICK SCHIFRIN: You mentioned Iran's main goals.
Given those goals, how likely is it that Iran responds in a major way?
NORMAN ROULE: There is certainly going to be a heated discussion with Iran regarding
response.
There will be some who thought the response to the death of Qasem Soleimani was insufficient.
And then, of course, you have had the reports of explosions, the death of a senior al-Qaida
official, and now this.
Iran will need to reestablish deterrence.
Iran will need to show national pride has been protected.
At the same time, they won't want to undertake an action that risks a conventional war or
upsets the prospect of the financial relief that would come from a return to the nuclear
deal.
So, Iran is going to have to decide exactly what they do that walks a very fine line.
NICK SCHIFRIN: Norman Roule, thank you very much.
NORMAN ROULE: My pleasure.