In Tifo’s Sensible Transfer series’, we analyse teams, identify problem areas, and
suggest solutions in the form of incoming transfers. We don’t follow gossip, rumours
or conjecture, we don’t have inside information, and broadly speaking we don’t consider the
brand value of players – merely their suitability to the team in question.
Some of our choices might be a touch niche, and some of them would be unlikely to ever
happen – but the game isn’t to make predictions; it’s to make suggestions.
So, how do we come up with these suggestions? Well, in much the same way that football clubs
do. By scouting. Now, Tifo doesn’t have the budget to send Alex Stewart all around
the world, nor does Tifo have enough Alex Stewarts to send – but we can at least mimic
the modern football club’s approach towards video scouting, and whittle a long list of
players down to a short list. Here’s how that works for a club. And to explain this,
we’re going to create a hypothetical club with a transfer requirement, so we can take
you through step by step.
First, we’ll have to assume certain things to make it plausible and interesting – the
club is professional but not a dominant side domestically; it has access to video and data
scouting tools, but does not outsource this; and the manager works alongside, or even under,
a Director of Football.
Let’s call our team Winchester Wanderers. The Wanderers are a mid-level Championship
club in England and their manager, Craig Davison, has to work within certain financial constraints
that mean he can’t simply scour Europe’s top five leagues and secure the best talent.
Craig works with his Director of Football Elliott and Head of Recruitment Pete to set
transfer priorities and then leaves Pete to implement a structure and method for this.
Craig likes to play 4-2-3-1, retain possession with a high volume of passing, and likes pace
in his players. He’s not afraid to play directly into the channels and so wants his
wide players to be able to run with the ball and cut inside. This is relevant because Elliott
and Craig have identified their long-serving right winger as the club’s weak link and
have ear-marked this position as their priority for the coming transfer window. Strategically,
this makes sense: replacing a weak link is likely to strengthen a team more than signing
an upgrade in a position that’s already well-stocked.
As Director of Football, Elliott briefs Head of Recruitment Pete on these requirements,
and adds in a few of his own. For financial reasons, the club cannot look at Europe’s
top leagues, but wants to sign players from leagues that are competitive enough that the
player will not find the transition too hard.
Elliott therefore focusses on several others – let’s say the four English professional
leagues, Bundesliga 2, the Austrian Bundesliga, the Danish Superliga, and the Swedish Allsvenskan.
In addition, Elliott is happy to let Pete investigate France’s third tier, the National,
and the Serbian SuperLiga, as he believes there is value there. This automatically narrows
the field.
Pete is well versed in how Craig likes to play, but Elliott emphasises a few characteristics
that both feel are key besides dribbling, speed, and creativity. He wants a player under
24 years of age, ideally who has played left wing as well as right, and looks to cross
late rather than float the ball in, as Winchester do not have any tall strikers. If the player
speaks English or is home-grown under registration rules, this is a bonus.
At this point, then, Pete has three key pieces of information that allow him to begin searching:
• Winchester’s own style of play, into which the player must fit
• The profile and position of the player sought
• A list of leagues to search, narrowed by relative quality and likelihood of delivering
value
The first stage is fairly straightforward (and is our process for the Sensible Transfers
series). Using data from various providers, for example Opta, Statsbomb, or Wyscout, Pete
generates an initial set of prospects. These players are selected because of their age
and position initially, before being further screened by the data. If Pete is feeling particularly
assiduous, he’ll add in wing backs and full backs, because sometimes these players can
play further up the pitch in wide areas.
Based on what he’s looking for, Pete will use the following metrics as his main guide:
• xG and xA vs actual goals and actual assists – these are always worth considering as
an overall value for a player’s attacking contribution and its sustainability
• Dribbles per 90 and successful dribbles as a percentage
• Deep completions per 90 – the number of successfully completed passes that find
a teammate 25 yards or less from goal • Key passes and through passes per 90
• Crossing metrics, with a focus on deep completed crosses, again per 90
Pete also considers the number of minutes played – if a youngster is starting and
getting regular minutes for a side, that’s a strong indicator they could be successful
providing their other metrics bear this out. Again, if a player does superbly in their
per 90 data but is barely playing, that could show various things: a manager who doesn’t
trust younger players even if they’re talented; stat-padding against weaker teams who’ve
tired; or a player who is excellent but doesn’t get selected for other reasons, perhaps issues
with teammates or discipline. If Pete has access to any physical data, this will go
into the mix, but it’s unlikely, and things like speed and stamina will have to be judged
by eye later in the process.
He's also likely to look at the style of the team the player plays for. If they’re too
far removed from Winchester’s current system and approach, the player could find it hard
to adjust.
Having created a list of several hundred possible from the first set of instructions – position,
age, and possibly playing time – Pete now has a list of 40 or so players who might merit
further investigation.
At this point, Pete and his team, assuming he has one (unlike our Alex Stewart), will
begin video analysis of the players. The scope of this will be determined by how many staff
Pete has and how near the window is – the sheer logistics of funnelling this many players
and recording data and observations is staggering and time could be of the essence. Assuming,
though, that Winchester are ahead of the curve and making their plans early, it’s likely
that these players will all be watched in a number of games on video. A tool such as
Wyscout can also highlight key actions, but what a player does without the ball, how they
scan the pitch, communicate with others, their body language, their persistence and so on
– all these are qualities that one could only start to get a handle on by watching
full matches. Video scouting just allows this to happen in a far more pragmatic and time-sensitive
way, but the principles of observation are the same as watching the player in the flesh.
The downside, of course, is that camera angles mean the player is not constantly in view,
and this is why video scouting is one element, but not the sole means of assessing players
by eye.
By this point, any player that has made it to this stage has had the following things
assessed: • Age
• Position • Current league and team
• Playing time • Current team’s style and tactics
• Data set showing key metrics • Off-the-ball behaviour, communication,
positioning etc (by video)
The original set of several hundred possible players has been filtered in two stages, first
by data, and second by video. It’s likely that at this point, the team will be putting
together a short presentation on each player combining playing history, data, and clips,
to show to Director of Football Elliott, before sending scouts out to watch players in person.
Elliott now assigns scouts to watch each of the ten shortlisted wingers in person. And
this is where Tifo parts company, for the reasons of the aforementioned lack of budget
and lack of Alex Stewarts. The club would go on to whittle the list down from this point,
and then make their selections and attempt a signing. For the purposes of the Sensible
Transfer series; you, the viewer, are our Director of Football. We are merely presenting
you with a list of possibilities.