time now for an in-depth look at the market news this afternoon and for that i'm joined
on the line by mr daniel yu global strategist at yuanta securities mr yuke good to have you
back on this week thank you for making time good afternoon well let's start with wall
street where the post christmas rally took a breather with a lot of focus on the spread of
the omicron variant shares of pfizer and moderna interestingly were both down around two percent
the dow though was up for a fifth straight session what's the story in the markets and what should
investors be watching right now yes if you look at the uh overall this market uh trend uh it's
kind of a bit of a soft week in terms of economic releases uh and therefore uh we saw somewhat of
a weakness that happening in a uh say nasdaq and with regard to the santa claus rally uh it's just
it seems to be taking a bit of a breather for the time being uh if you look at the overall this year
smp 500 is up more than 28 percent and nasdaq is up about 23 percent dow which ones was up about
uh 19 so uh we have not many days left for trading and we are taking we're seeing quite a bit about
breeder for the time being as you said uh there's bit of a concern about the omicron variant
but market seems to be fairly resilient in the sense that tao have showed fifth straight days of
rising trend while the nasdaq is the only index that showed a 0.6 drop if you look at the global
corporate 19 cases it is hitting record high level continuously on a daily basis and we're
seeing many countries imposing restrictions and and there are several studies indicating that the
new strain is highly contagious but luckily in a little bit and luckily that the the cases of
illness seems to be less severe per se so that is affecting the market to be a bit of a light
trading days and that seems to be affecting globally if you look at chinese market it did show
quite a bit of decline where shanghai was down by 0.9 percent and shenzhen component is down by 1.2
percent uh this is all because of the concern about the uh country battling against the worst
corporate 19 surges that we've seen in the 21 month there's a possibility of closing down of
factories or specific cities per se the northern city of shan showed 30 million residents entering
the six days of home confinement so all that seems to be affecting overall global market pers
in overall we have to watch out for how this plays out in the future well today in korea we saw the
cosby fall back below 3000 points we discussed yesterday how a lot of retail selling had to do
with capital gains tax and today we have the ex-dividend date a lot of individuals buying
an institution selling shares of samsung back now below 80 000 won tell us about the domestic market
right um as we saw retail investors selling over three trillion one worth of korean equities
yesterday today right after the dividend payout and also the tax related issues disappeared we saw
local investors buying 1.8 trillion one worth of cosby and also for costa 1.7 trillion one worth
of uh equities so if you add those two that's over 3.5 trillion so whatever they sold yesterday they
rebound today that's kind of very unfortunate that such a short-term related trading is happening due
to the these issues we see some policies changing towards local investors using the equity market as
a bit of a long-term investment rather than this type of trading oriented short-term investment
if you look at the overall cost p it was down by uh zero point eight nine percent uh kostek
was up slightly by 0.06 but this is after the uh the stock dividend payout uh uh corrections so uh
if we look at in that way we did see overall market rising as you know a dividend payout for
last year probably around two percent plus of the overall market so uh cosby should have
declined by more than 50 points but it declined by only 27 points that means uh actually it net
uh rose uh because of the dividend payout per se uh all in all we need to look into the futures
where what's happening to the economic front everybody is concerned about the producer in
flight inflation the ppi numbers are coming in at 13 years high people might be concerned
about how that will affect the overall margin for the exporters the manufacturing industries
uh because korea is heavily dependent on export and in terms of domestic
consumption related wise we continue to be burdened by the rising interest rate environment
as well as high level of the consumer debt overall fundamentals seems to be quite intact in terms of
the valuation of the korean companies but we do need to watch out for how the margin plays out
uh in year 2022. right and great point about the net asset value after the dividend today
and to switch gears for a minute we see oil prices continuing to back bounce back from
their recent lows and the main benchmarks like west texas and brent at their highest in a month
a gold inching back up to what's behind these moves and your outlook for these two
yes the commodity price seems to be quite resilient as we go near the air and
if you look at the oil price it's slightly up uh 76 dollars per barrel wti index wise
uh brent oil is also up about four five percent to seventy nine dollars uh in terms of the gold uh we
did see quite strong move and it did go up to as high as eighteen uh eighteen hundred plus uh but
we do see today that it has shown some short-term corrections of about 0.46 percent uh obviously
the oil as well as the gold all is affected by the inflation pressure that we are seeing
in the global market uh and as far as a particular concern about the oil prices uh the energy sector
related is highly affected by what's happening to the fourth industry revolutions where we need
a lot more energies electricities uh in order to carry on these advancement uh but on top of that
we did see uncertainty about the the uh supply side uh as you know that uh russia and uh ukraine
uh as well as u.s are all involved in terms of how uh this possibility of russia attacking uh ukraine
uh that is a key issues uh if that happens then uh the supply side becomes quite a bit of a problem
and therefore that results into highly speculative price rise for the oil as well as natural gas
that seems to be happening for the time being we do know that these parties will be having
conferences uh meetings uh in january 10th of next year
until then the uncertainty will remain quite high as russia cut down the
supply to europe in regards to natural gas all involving these political issues about ukraine
and the u.s is trying to help the europe by sending the lng shipment
quite aggressively and obviously u.s will be involved in terms of how they will supply the
energy for your continent so all in all we need to watch out how the political arenas plays out
in order for these uh prices changes that we've seen so far as oil have recovered from 60 dollars
around level as a low and now to above 78 dollars per barrel as high as on wednesday we think that
uh supply and demand picture is in such that price should be remaining at where it is for the timing
well speaking of uncertainty uh mr you according to the bank of korea
business sentiment is up slightly this month despite the service sector taking another hit from
social distancing but the outlook for next month is less certain what do you make of these numbers
yes once again there's quite a bit of divergences happening it seems to be the case for most of the
uh countries with a highly manufacturing based economy if you look at the korea business
conference index the business conditions for the manufacturing sector rose to 95 in december after
three consecutive months of study at 90 plus this is the highest level that we've seen the past five
months and also if you look at a country like taiwan we saw market rising to record high level
uh obviously they are heavily focused on manufacturing of conductor businesses so
we are seeing uh upon the sports industry revolution that high demand is happening
regarding the semiconductor and anything related to electric cars and etc so all that
is affecting positively for the manufacturing industries however as far as korea is concerned
the retail side seems to be quite uncertain as you know we are seeing high-level consumer debt as a
percentage of gdp right now household or much less optimistic about the current state of economy as
a lot of the corporate 19 cases spurring out right now we are continue to see highest level
of infection that's happening and we did see some shutdowns happening right now there's no gathering
after 9 pm so all that means is a continuation of uncertainty about the domestic consumption related
industries and that is definitely affecting the sentiment of the korean consumers
so there's diversity between manufacturing sector versus the consumer sector so we need to watch out
how that plays out hopefully by the beginning of next year sometime the medicines to control the
these infections can be supplied well and the vaccine becomes effective if that happens then
economic growth rate recovery should be quite certain but for the timing we're still concerned
about these high cases of corbyn 19 cases all right mr eubank will leave it there for this week
we at adiron news would like to thank you for all the insights you've shared with us this year
we hope you have a happy new year and we'll see you in 2022 thank you very much happy new year