HOW BIG WILL FOREIGN-POLICY SHIFT IF WE GO FROM THIS
PROGRESSIVE ADMINISTRATION TO A CONSERVATIVE ONE? SOO:
THE EXPECTATION IS THAT, WITH A CONSERVATIVE ADMINISTRATION, WE
ARE GOING TO SEE RECALIBRATION TOWARD A HARDER LINE ON NORTH
KOREA. I THINK THAT IS GOING TO BE
POSSIBLE. BUT I ALSO THINK THAT IN LIGHT
OF ALL THESE OTHER GEOPOLITICAL ISSUES, IT IS GOOD TO TAKE TIME
FOR A CONSERVATIVE ADMINISTRATION TO BRING BACK
INTER-KOREAN RELATIONS AND OUR DEALINGS WITH NORTH KOREA ON
THE NUCLEAR ISSUE, BACK TO WHERE IT WAS CIRCA THREE TRUMP
ADMINISTRATION. SHERY:
HOW IS THE UKRAINE WAR AFFECTED THE NARRATIVE INSIDE SOUTH
KOREA AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE VOTE? SOO:
OF COURSE, IT IS GOING TO SHIFT THE DIALOGUE, AS IN ANY COUNTRY
DEALING WITH NOT JUST THE BROADER IMPLICATIONS OF THE
RUSSIAN-UKRAINE WAR, BUT QUESTIONS AS TO WHAT WOULD
HAPPEN TO SOUTH KOREA IF, LET'S SAY, NORTH KOREA WERE TO RAMP
UP PROVOCATIONS TO A POINT WHERE WE SEE ARMED
CONFRONTATION BETWEEN THE KOREAS?
AND I THINK THAT IS GOING TO ENCOURAGE PEOPLE TO THINK ABOUT
SECURITY.
ECONOMIC SECURITY IS IMPORTANT, BUT WE HAVE TO THINK ABOUT HOW
WELL SOUTH KOREANS WILL BE ABLE TO FEND FOR THEMSELVES IF A
BIGGER CRISIS ERUPTS ON THE KOREAN PENINSULA. HAIDI:
ARE THERE ALREADY IMPLICATIONS FOR U.S.
INFLUENCE IN THE CREDIBILITY OF THE U.S.
ALLIANCE IN ASIA, GIVEN HOW WE MIGHT EXPECT YOUR SITUATION TO
PLAY OUT? SOO: I DO THINK THAT, IN SOME
CIRCLES OF THE ELITE, THERE ARE CONCERNS ABOUT POTENTIAL
BACKLASH ON THE ALLIANCE. AS I MENTIONED, LET'S SAY THERE
IS A CRISIS ON THE KOREAN PENINSULA, WOULD THE U.S.
BE ABLE TO ASSIST SOUTH KOREA IN THE WAY SOUTH KOREA EXPECTS
IT? WE DON'T KNOW WHAT IS GOING TO
HAPPEN, BUT WE HAVE THE ALLIANCE THAT HAS GUARANTEED
SOUTH KOREAN SECURITY FOR SEVEN DECADES.
THERE IS GOING TO BE HOPE THIS WILL SUSTAIN THE RELATIONSHIP
AND ALSO SUSTAINED SOUTH KOREA'S SECURITY.
OBVIOUSLY, IT IS NATURAL, I THINK, FOR SOUTH KOREANS TO
DOUBT THE U.S. SECURITY GUARANTEES.
BUT I DO THINK THAT THE ALLIANCE, DUE TO THE TIME IT
HAS TAKEN TO PRESERVE THE ALLIANCE AND RELATIONSHIP, THAT
SOUTH KOREANS SHOULD BE IN GOOD SHAPE IF SOMETHING WERE TO
HAPPEN. BUT NOBODY KNOWS WHAT IS GOING
TO HAPPEN. HAIDI: WHAT ABOUT THE ROLE OF CHINA?
SOO: SO, CHINA IS THE STICKING
POINT, I THINK, AND SOUTH KOREA'S RELATIONSHIP WITH THE
UNITED STATES. SOUTH KOREA DOES NOT WANT TO
TAKE A FIRM POSITION EITHER WAY. THE SECURITY ALLIANCE IS THE
MOST IMPORTANT THING. BUT YOU CAN'T IGNORE ECONOMICS.
AND WE KNOW SOUTH KOREA ENJOYS A ROBUST TRADE RELATIONSHIP
WITH CHINA. AND FOR SOUTH KOREA TO TAKE A
FIRMER POSITION EITHER WAY TOWARDS THE UNITED STATES ON
SECURITY, THEY ARE GOING TO BE CONCERNED BEIJING IS GOING TO
SHOW A BACKLASH SIMILAR TO, LET'S SAY, THE THAAD INCIDENT.
LET'S SAY WE DO SEE A CONSERVATIVE PRESIDENT.
THE EXPECTATION IS THAT WE WILL SEE SOUTH KOREA BE MORE
UNEQUIVOCAL TOWARD THE ALLIANCE. BUT ON THE FLIPSIDE, I DON'T
THINK THIS RESETTING OF SOUTH KOREAN FOREIGN POLICY IS GOING
TO TAKE OVERNIGHT. SOUTH KOREA HAS TO TAKE INTO
CONSIDERATION NOT JUST SECURITY NEEDS, BUT ALSO THE ONGOING
CRISIS WITH CORONAVIRUS, THE RUSSIA-UKRAINE CRISIS AND MANY
OTHER THINGS WE HAVEN'T ANTICIPATED UNTIL NOW. SHERY:
HOW DOES KOREA PLAY INTO PRESIDENT BIDEN'S INDO PACIFIC
STRATEGY ANNOUNCED LAST MONTH? WE HAVE REACTION FROM BEIJING
WARNING AGAINST AN ASIAN VERSION OF NATO. SOO:
HOPEFULLY, KOREA WILL PLAY, I WOULDN'T SAY A LEADING ROLE IN
INDO PACIFIC A STRATEGY, BUT I DO THINK THAT BECAUSE OF THE
SEVEN-DOCKET ALLIANCE AND SOUTH KOREA'S GROWING STATURE THAT
THERE WILL BE A ROLE AND AN EXPECTATION THAT SOUTH KOREA
WILL PLAY NOT JUST A PARTNER, BUT A LEADING COUNTRY.
SO, WASHINGTON AND I THINK ALL THE OTHER COUNTRIES SURROUNDING
THE REGION WOULD EXPECT AND WANT SOUTH KOREA TO STEP UP TO
THE PLATE. BUT IT DEPENDS ALSO ON WHETHER
WE SEE A CONSERVATIVE OR PROGRESSIVE ADMINISTRATION.
AND I THINK THAT WILL MAKE THE CALL. SHERY:
DO WE SEE FURTHER SABER RATTLING -- HAIDI: DO WE SEE
FURTHER SABER RATTLING FROM THE NORTH, SINK THAT IT SEEMS TO BE
TAKING THAT GLOBAL UNCERTAINTY AND USING THAT OPPORTUNITY? SOO:
YOU KNOW, NORTH KOREA IS ALWAYS GOING TO LOOK FOR OPPORTUNITIES.
I WOULD SAY WITH THE RUSSIA-UKRAINE CRISIS, IT IS
ANOTHER SCENE THAT NORTH KOREA WOULD WANT TO EXPLOIT.
BUT I ALSO WANT TO SAY NORTH KOREA WON'T CONTINUE TO PLAY BY
KIM JONG-UN APOSTATE -- WILL CONTINUE TO PLAY ALONG KIM
JONG-UN'S TIMELINE AND THAT COINCIDES WITH THIS SATELLITE
DEVELOPMENT THAT WILL BE DONE AT A TIME AND PLACE THAT KIM
JONG-UN DETERMINES. INTERNATIONAL CRISES ARE AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR KIM, BUT I ALSO THINK HE IS GOING BY THE
TIMELINE HE SET HER HIS NUCLEAR WEAPONS PROGRAM, AND HOW
ADVANTAGEOUS THESE INCIDENTAL OCCURRENCES HAPPEN TO BE FOR
HIS STRATEGIC INTENTIONS. SHERY: DOES NORTH KOREA EVEN MATTER
NOW? AND I AM TALKING ABOUT SOUTH
KOREAN VOTERS GOING TO THE POLLS.
IT SEEMS NOT ONLY NORTH KOREA, BUT FOREIGN POLICY IS NOT
REALLY HIGH ON THE AGENDA OF A LOT OF KOREAN CITIZENS OUT THE
MOMENT. SOO:
YOU KNOW, AND YOU CAN'T
BLAME THEM BECAUSE WE HAVE BEEN GOING THROUGH TWO YEARS,
POSSIBLY THREE YEARS OF THE COVID-19 CRISIS AND
ECONOMICALLY, IT IS NOT JUST THE BUSINESSES, BUT INDIVIDUAL
SOUTH KOREAN CITIZENS THAT HAVE BEEN IMPACTED SO, THE FIRST
THING ON THEIR MIND IS NOT GOING TO BECOME IS NORTH KOREA
GOING TO BE MORE AGGRESSIVE TOWARDS OUR COUNTRY?
THEY HAVE BEEN LIVING WITH THE NORTH KOREAN THREAT.
AND THAT IS NOT TO DOWNPLAY THE POTENTIAL FOR GREATER TENSION
BETWEEN THE TWO COUNTRIES, BUT YOU HAVE TO THINK ABOUT, WHAT
IS THE AVERAGE SOUTH KOREAN MORE CONCERNED ABOUT?
AND FOREIGN POLICY, IF WE HAD THE LEISURE RIGHT NOW TO THINK
ABOUT IT, IT WOULD TO BE TOPPING THE AGENDA.
BUT RIGHT NOW, IT IS THE ECONOMY, THE COVID CRISIS, FROM
THE U.S. PERSPECTIVE, OF COURSE WE WANT
TO SEE RESETTING OF THE ALLIANCE, IMPROVED RELATIONS,
ABOUT THE BIGGEST FACTOR IS