coronavirus disease 2019 aka covid 19 for short which is caused by the SARS coronavirus - still
at the time of the making of this video is considered an epidemic and not a pandemic so here
are the latest numbers of confirmed cases this is as of February 20th at 5:43 p.m. so we have 76199
total cases and the vast majority are in mainland China as of right now there's 15 in the US they
actually temporarily changed this from 29 to 15 so it actually went from 15 and then they had
those 14 cases that they brought from the cruise ship but they're considering that not us because
of the location where they were first found to be confirmed case so actually they changed that from
29 back to 15 these are the total number of deaths 2247 only nine of these deaths
have occurred outside of mainland China totally recovered 18,000 177 when you calculate the case
fatality rate based on these numbers it's gonna be two thousand two hundred forty-seven divided by
76199 which off the top of my head I don't know what that is but I think it's around two maybe
slightly higher than two percent now it's fair to say that these numbers are being under reported
but the ones that are being disproportionately underreported are the total number of cases
here's why it's easier to track a death because a death is obvious it's easy to track deaths from
coronavirus in hospitals and if someone dies at home it's relatively easy to make a post-mortem
diagnosis at the autopsy so the number of deaths from covid 19 are more accurate in the total cases
because it's a lot harder to make a diagnosis in someone who has little to no symptoms because
the people with little to no symptoms are less likely to seek medical attention so when someone
is infected with stars coronavirus - the symptoms can range from no symptoms at all to mild disease
to moderate disease to severe disease and then it can be at its worst when you have respiratory
failure with septic shock multi organ failure and some might say yeah but they're screening
some people in some cases which is true but the vast majority of people who are being tested are
symptomatic also there's a higher potential for a false negative when someone is asymptomatic
or has very mild symptoms this is at least part of the reason why the CDC has certain criteria
on who to test and as of right now that criteria includes people who have symptoms who have been in
close contact with someone with a confirmed case or someone who's been in contact with someone who
has recently been to China so knowing that there's a lot of cases that are not being diagnosed mainly
because people with little to no symptoms don't seek medical care typically that means that our
case fatality rate is going to be much lower than the one I mentioned earlier in this video
many epidemiologists think that the case fatality rate is going to be about one percent well let's
take a look at the largest covid 19 study today which just came out the other day February 17th
it looked at seventy two thousand three hundred and fourteen cases of covid 19 these were either
confirmed or suspected cases the study was done at the Chinese CDC and published in the Chinese
Journal of Epidemiology so looking at the numbers in this study forty-four thousand six hundred
seventy two out of seventy two thousand three hundred fourteen patients were confirmed cases of
the virus so 62 percent ten thousand five hundred sixty-seven cases were clinically diagnosed so
that's 15 percent and there were sixteen thousand 186 suspected cases that's 22 percent also of
the 72,000 314 patients there were eight hundred eighty-nine cases of patients who had no symptoms
the ones that were deemed clinically diagnosed cases those are patients who demonstrated all the
symptoms of covid 19 will have either not been able to get a PCR test or I believe to have a
false negative test in about fourteen percent of cases the virus caused severe disease including
pneumonia and shortness of breath in about five percent of cases patients were critically ill with
respiratory failure a RDS septic shock multi organ failure all of the forty 4672 confirmed
cases they were 1023 deaths which gives us a case fatality rate based on these numbers of point
three percent but to do some people having mild to no symptoms and not seeking medical attention that
case fatality rate would be expected to be more like one percent in 2003 SARS had a CFR of nine
point six percent which is much lower than the CFR of MERS which was thirty five percent but because
SARS was much more contagious it caused almost the same amount of deaths as MERS SARS had 774
MERS 828 the virus that's causing Covid 19 has infected at least 76,000 people so far and despite
having a lower CFR than SARS and MERS has actually caused more deaths than those other corona viruses
combined with the influenza virus the CFR is 0.1 percent but so far influenza has killed twelve
thousand Americans this year and on average it's responsible for 500,000 deaths worldwide that
speaks to just how contagious the influenza virus really is but let's get back to the coronavirus
disease covid 19 we've mentioned that it probably has a CFR of 1% or so and that it caused 2247
deaths many of those deaths have been among older people and/or those with medical conditions that
make them more susceptible to being critically ill from viral infections this large Chinese CDC study
found that among patients aged 80 and above the CFR was fourteen point eight percent and for those
with pre-existing conditions such as those with heart disease the CFR was ten point five percent
that means for younger adults without any medical conditions the CFR for them is less than the total
CFR as a whole so what that means is for younger adults who don't have medical conditions their
CFR is gonna be less than one percent now let's talk about the healthcare workers in the wuhan
area 3,000 hospital staff or other medics had been reported to have covid 19 based in this study and
90 of them died so that's a CFR of 0.3% for those health care workers who were infected now in China
the number of new cases per day is starting to level off maybe even trend down you can see the
total daily deaths kept going up and up and up and then February 12th looks like it feet here
and then it's kind of leveling off here maybe maybe going down so is the total daily deaths
going to trend down don't know yet it's still too early to tell we'll covid 19 become a pandemic
also too early to tell at this point I think we'll have a better idea in the upcoming week or so oh
and one more thing that came out of this study is that covid 19 rarely affects children if you found
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