LAST WEEK, WALKING AWAY FROM NEGOTIATIONS WITH NORTH KOREAN
LEADER KIM JONG UN.
WITH THE WORLD WATCHING THE HANOI SUMMIT, THE PRESIDENT
SOUGHT TO REACH A DEAL, CALLING FOR FULL DENUCLEARIZATION.
I SAT DOWN WITH PAUL MUSGRAVE, A PROFESSOR OF POLITICAL SCIENCE
AT UMASS AMHERST, TO FIND OUT WHERE THE U.S. GOES FROM HERE.
>> WELL, I THINK PRESIDENT TRUMP CAME INTO THE HAFOR MY SUMMIT
REALLY HOPING FOR SOMETHING THAT WOULD BE A DRAMATIC CONFIRMATION
THAT HIS NEW POLICY OF PEACE AND ACCOMMODATION WITH KIM JONG UN
HAD BORNE FRUIT.
THAT MIGHT HAVE BEEN SOMETHING AS DRAMATIC AS AN OFFICIAL
DECLARATION OF THE END OF THE COKOREAN WAR WHICH HASN'T ENDED
AND THE RETURN OF AMERICAN REMAINS.
THERE'S THOUSANDS OF AMERICAN REMAINS IN NORTH KOREA OR AT
LEAST IT MIGHT HAVE BEEN A JOINT STATEMENT ABOUT WHAT MARKERS,
WHAT FURTHER PROGRESS COULD BE MADE AND IT SAYS PRESIDENT TRUMP
GAVE NONE OF THAT.
HE WALKED OUT OF THE SUMMIT.
HE SAID IN HIS STATEMENTS THAT THE NORTH KOREANS HAD ASKED TOO
MUCH AND SOMETIMES YOU JUST HAVE TO WALK AWAY AND I THINK THAT
EVEN THOUGH THIS ISN'T THE WORSE OUTCOME IT'S CLEARLY NOT WHAT
PRESIDENT TRUMP HAVE HAPPENED.
>> BUT HE HAD A NEGOTIATOR BUT IT WASN'T ON HIS TERMS AND HE
WALKED AWAY AND I KNOW THE NORTH KOREANS WANTED ALL THE
SANCTIONS LIFTED BEFORE GIVING ANY COMMITMENT.
HE SHOULD HAVE WALKED AWAY, SHOULDN'T HE HAVE?
>> I THINK AS I SAID NOT THE WORST OUTCOME.
IT WASN'T WHAT HE WANTED.
THERE'S NO QUESTION ON EITHER SIDE THAT THE SANCTIONS ARE
GOING TO BE LISTED.
THIS IS REALLY A DEBATE ABOUT THE SEQUENCE IN WHICH THEY WILL
BE LIFTED AND THE UNITED STATES WANTS TO KEEP THEM IN PLACE
UNTIL NUCLEAR FACILITIES ESPECIALLY THE NUCLEAR FACILITY
IN THE NORTH KOREAN AREA HAVE BEEN DISMANTLED AND THE
NORTH KOREANS WANT THE SANCTIONS LIFTED AS A SHOW OF GOOD FAITH
BEFORE THEY DISMANTLE THAT SO THAT'S KIND OF AN IRRECONCILABLE
DISPUTE AND I THINK NORMALLY WHAT YOU'D SEE IN A HIGH-LEVEL
SUMMIT LIKE THIS OVER THE MOST INTENSE INTERESTS THAT TWO
COUNTRIES CAN HAVE YOU WOULD HAVE WEEKS AND CAN SEE WOULD AND
MONTHS AND MONTHS OF CAREFUL BACKGROUND DELIBERATION SO THAT
WHEN THE TWO LEADERS MEET ALL THESE ISSUES WOULD HAVE ALREADY
BEEN ADDRESSED AND THEY WOULD HAVE BEEN NEGOTIATING OVER THE
FINAL DETAILS.
INSTEAD, WHAT WE SAW WAS SOMETHING VERY RARELY YOU SEE IN
HIGH STAKES DIPLOMACY, TWO LEADERS BOTH NEGOTIATING WITHOUT
THAT KIND OF STAFF SUPPORT AND FINDING THAT THE KIND OF MAJOR
PRINCIPLES THAT YOU WANT TO HAVE AGREEMENT ON WERE ACTUALLY AREAS
OF SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT.
SO PRESIDENT TRUMP HAS MADE CLEAR THAT HE WANTS THE
NEGOTIATIONS TO CONTINUE AND THAT'S ONE OF THE REASONS WHY
HE'S BEEN SO PEXUBERANT MUCH KIM JONG UN BUT OVERTURNED
HAVING A SUMMIT LIKE THIS BLOW UP WITHOUT EVEN A SIMPLE
AGREEMENT.
>> BUT HE DID LEAVE THE DOOR OPEN, OF COURSE, FOR A THIRD
SUMMIT NOT UNUSUAL, THOUGH, WHEN REAGAN MET WITH GORBACHEV HE MET
BEFORE THE TREATY WAS SIGNED SO IN THIS CONTEXT IT'S NOT A TOTAL
LOSS.
>> WELL, A LOT OF PEOPLE HAVE GONE BACK TO THAT 1986 SUMMIT
BETWEEN PRESIDENT REAGAN REAGAN AND GORBACHEV IN REYKJAVIK WHERE
THEY CAME UP WITH A PLAN TO ABOLISH NUCLEAR WEAPONS AND
UNITED STATES DECIDED NOT TO GO FOR IT HOW IT WOULD AFFECT
PRESIDENT REAGAN REAGAN'S STAR WARS PROGRAM.
THAT'S AN EXCEPTION AND NOT HOW THESE THINGS WORK.
THE THINGS I LOOK FOR PRESIDENT TRUMP PRESIDENT NO
OBJECTION APPROACHED NEGOTIATIONS WITH CHAIRMAN MAO
AT THAT TIME A RADICAL COMMUNIST LEADER OF A COUNTRY THAT WAS
ESTRANGED FROM THE UNITED STATES WITH A MAJOR NUCLEAR PROGRAM,
SOUNDS FAMILIAR, AND BEFORE THAT SUMMIT, THERE WERE MONTH OF
INTENSIVE TOP-LEVEL CONCENTRATED DIPLOMACY HAMMERED OUT WHAT
WOULD BE AGREED BEFORE NIXON ARRIVED IN BEIJING.
THE REAGAN SUMMIT IN 1986, THAT WAS SOMETHING WHERE THE TWO
SIDES KIND OF UNDERSTOOD THE RULES OF THE GAME.
RIGHT NOW, NORTH KOREA -- THEIR A NEW NUCLEAR PLAYER, THE
UNITED STATES HAS EVERY INTEREST TO MAKE SURE THAT THIS DISPUTE
IS RESOLVED SPEEDILY AND KIM JONG UN CAN AFFORD TO WAIT.
>> AND KIM JONG UN DID SAY WHEN ASKED, YOU KNOW, THROUGH AN
INTERPRETER HE WOULDN'T HAVE BEEN THERE IF HE WASN'T WILLING
TO DENUCLEARIZE SO DOES THAT GIVE YOU SOME SORT OF HOPE THAT
HE'S, YOU KNOW -- IF THERE'S ANOTHER SUMMIT IF AND WHEN THAT
THERE'LL BE SOME MOVEMENT?
>> I THINK THAT SORT OF EXPRESSION, I THINK THE
PHOTOGRAPHS OF THE TWO LEADERS LAUGHING AND TALKING -- YOU
KNOW, PRESIDENT TRUMP, I THINK, IS JUSTIFIABLY GETTING A LOT OF
CRITICISM BECAUSE HE'S DOWNPLAYING THE NORTH KOREAN
GOVERNMENT HUMAN RIGHTS ABUSES.
ON THE OTHER HAND, CONSIDERING WHERE WE ARE RIGHT NOW WHERE
WE'RE TALKING ABOUT THE FAILURE OF A SUMMIT COMPARED TO WHERE WE
WERE CURRENT TEMPERATURES AGO, WHERE IT LOOKED LIKE A VERY REAL
POSSIBILITY THAT THE NORTH KOREANS AND THE AMERICANS
COULD STUMBLE INTO A NUCLEAR WAR.
THE DIPLOMATICALLY TRACT HAS PROGRESSED DRAMATICALLY THEN.
THAT BEING SAID, EVERY WEEK THAT GOES BY THAT NORTH KOREA
CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN AND GROW AND DEVELOP ITS NUCLEAR ARSENAL
IS ANOTHER WEEK THAT NORMALIZES NORTH KOREA'S NUCLEAR CAPABILITY
AND INDEED SOME OF THE CONCESSIONS THAT PRESIDENT TRUMP
MADE A LONG WAY TO TREATING NORTH KOREA AS JUST ANOTHER
NUCLEAR STATE, NOT A STATE WHOSE POSSESSION OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS IS
AS PREVIOUS PRESIDENTS HAVE SAID FEBRUARILY ILLEGITIMATE AND
THAT'S ONE OF THE REASONS WHY KIM JONG UN CAN AFFORD TO BE
GRACIOUS, CAN AFFORD TO BE GENEROUS BECAUSE THE LONGER THAT
DIPLOMATIC TRACT PLAYS OUT THE AMERICA CAN KEEP THE SANCTIONS
IN PLACE AND THE COALITION AND HE GETS THE RECOGNITION THAT HE
WANTS.
>> THE CRITICISM FOR TRUMP, YOU KNOW, BEING CHUMMY WITH HIM NOW,
WHICH IS A STARK CONTRAST FROM HIM CALLING HIM THE LITTLE
ROCKET MAN A FEW YEARS AGO, IS THAT SOMETHING THAT HE KIND OF
HAD TO TURN AROUND IN ORDER TO TRY TO BRING THIS GUY TO THE
TABLE?
>> I THINK THERE'S A REAL LOGIC TO HOW PRESIDENT TRUMP HAS
ADDRESSED THIS.
I DON'T THINK IT'S THE OPTIMAL NEGOTIATING STRATEGY BUT I THINK
IT IS LOGICAL THAT WHEN THINGS WERE REALLY GETTING OUT HERE
HAND, PRESIDENT TRUMP WAS MAKING THREATS IN AN EFFORT TO COMPEL
THE NORTH KOREANS TO COME TO THE BARGAINING TABLE AND NOW HE'S
MAKING THEM PROMISES FOR THEM TO STAY.
ALL HIS TALK OF MAKING NORTH KOREA RICHER AND MAKING
NORTH KOREA GREAT AGAIN IS ABOUT MAKING A BID FOR THE
NORTH KOREAN TO LEAVE THE CHINESE ORBIT AND COME TO THE
AMERICAN ORBIT.
THIS IS REALLY HIGH STAKES POLKER BUT IT'S NOT CLEAR WHAT
CARDS PRESIDENT TRUMP HAS IN HIS HANDS.
IT'S ALSO NOT CLEAR THE DEGREE TO WHICH THIS KIND OF FIRE AND
FURY VERSUS BFF FOREVER OSCILLATION IS REALLY SHOWING
THAT THE UNITED STATES IS A SERIOUS DEDICATED AND
MARA-A-THON RUNNER IN THIS NEGOTIATES AS OPPOSED TO A
PLAYER WHOSE INTERESTS ARE IN THE HEADLINES THERE.
>> THERE WAS NOT MISSILE TESTS IN 16 AND WHATEVER HE'S DOING
IT'S WORKING.
>> THIS IS WHERE ARE WE GOING WHAT ARE THE NORTH KOREAN GOALS?
FUNDAMENTALLY THE NORTH KOREANS WANT TO HAVE THE U.S.-LED
SANCTIONS LIFTED.
THEY WANT RECOGNITION OF THEIR SECURITY INTERESTS AND A
GUARANTEE THAT THEY'RE SOVEREIGNTY WILL REMAIN
UNCHALLENGED AND PEOPLE ALSO WANT TO ENJOY THE BENEFITS OF
OPENING UP TO THE REST OF THE WORLD.
KIM HAS SEEN HOW CHINA HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE LAST 40
YEARS.
ALL OF THOSE POINT TO A STRATEGY OF THE NORTH KOREANS MAKING SURE
THAT THEY ARE A CREDIBLE NEGOTIATING PARTNER, MAKING SURE
THAT WHEN THERE'S SOME SORT OF RECIPROCATION, THEY'RE WILLING
TO RECIPROCATE.
BUT THOSE GOALS ARE ALSO WAY MORE McMIS THAN WHAT THE
UNITED STATES SEEMS WILLING TO SKIED, AND SO EVEN THOUGH 2018
AND SO FAR 2019 HAVE SEEN DIPLOMATIC PROGRESS, IT'S NOT
LEADING TO THE SORTS OF GOALS THAT PRESIDENT TRUMP ENTERED
INTO THIS NEGOTIATION WITH.
IN FACT, THERE SEEMS TO BE A STEADY CLIMBDOWN IN WHAT THE
U.S. WANTS OR -- AND THIS IS THE DANGEROUS THING, HARDLINERS
WITHIN THE ADMINISTRATION LIKE NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISOR JOHN
BOLTON WHO SAYS THE NORTH KOREAN CAN'T BE TRUSTED AND PLAYING FOR
TIME WILL EVENTUALLY WIN AN ARGUMENT AND WE'LL SEE A
SNAP-BACK TO WHERE WE WERE IN >> AND SOUTH KOREA HAS BEEN
WAITING ANXIOUSLY TO SEE WHAT'S GOING ON.
>> THIS IS THE RISK OF WITHOUT HAVING THAT STAFF WORK AND
HAVING THE GLOBAL CONSULTATION THAT AMERICAN PRESIDENTS OFTEN
GO IN WITH BECAUSE WITH PRESIDENT TRUMP THINKING ABOUT
THE EFFECTS ON SOUTH KOREA, ON PRESIDENT MOON OF BLOWING UP THE
SUMMIT, OF BLOWING UP PRESIDENT MOON'S PEACE STRATEGY, I TEND TO
DOUBT IT.
I TEND TO THINK THIS IS A DECISION HE REACHED, AGAIN, NOT
THE WORST OUTCOME BUT SOMETHING THAT SIDELINED AN AMERICAN ALLY
AND HAS ALSO LEFT PRESIDENT MOON A LITTLE BIT ISOLATED BECAUSE
NOW HIS PEACE PROJECT ISN'T SHOWING THE RESULTS THAT HE
PROMISED.
>> ONE OF THE THINGS THAT WAS BROUGHT UP WAS THAT COLLEGE
STUDENT WHO WAS DETAINED FOR 17 MONTHS.
WHO CAME BACK HOME AND DIED A FEW DAYS LATER AND KIM JONG UN
SAID, OH, OH, I DIDN'T KNOW ABOUT IT AND TRUMP HAS SAID, OH,
WELL, WE DIDN'T KNOW ABOUT IT.
I'M SURE PEOPLE ARE GOING TO TAKE ISSUE WITH THAT.
>> I'M SURE PEOPLE ARE.
PRESIDENT TRUMP'S ANSWER ON THE OTTO WAM BEIER QUESTION ALMOST
LIKE A CLUMSY DIPLOMATIC LIE.
NORTH KOREA IS A TOTALITARIAN STATE THERE'S NO QUESTION THAT
THE NORTH KOREAN LEADER WILL KNOW ABOUT THIS.
THIS IS AN ISSUE IN NEGOTIATIONS FOR A YEAR.
PRESIDENT TRUMP IS TRYING TO AGAIN COLUMNSLY PRESERVE THE
SORTS OF ACTS TO HAVE DIPLOMACY GOING FORWARD SO THERE'S A LOGIC
THERE BUT ALSO -- WHEN YOU'RE DOING THIS SO COLUMNSLY,
ESPECIALLY ON AN ISSUE THAT WAS SO DEMAGOGUED BY HIS BASE, IT
DOES TEND TO ZAP YOUR CREDIBILITY AS TO SOMEBODY WHO
CAN REALLY DRIVE A HARD DEAL WITH PYONGYANG.
♪