In 2017 populism was in full flow around the world...
...but the election of French president Emmanuel Macron...
...seemed to signal its resounding defeat at least in France
But five years on, as the country heads to the polls once again, the French are fed up
Normally this despondency spells defeat for sitting presidents
But Macron is leading in all the polls
So why are the French so miserable?
It’s market day in Auxerre, a town about 200km south-east of Paris
Auxerre is a typical provincial city in France, but is also a bellwether
It’s backed the winner in every French presidential race for 40 years
And in 2022 there’s only one victor in sight
In 2017, Emmanuel Macron swept to power with a party that was little more than a year old
At 39, he was the youngest president in French history
He promised to unite the country and proposed sweeping reforms
His term in office has been turbulent, rocked by national and international events
But on Macron’s watch, France has also become more entrepreneurial and business-friendly
Incomes have risen and unemployment has dropped
Faced with the pandemic, his stimulus package helped deliver the strongest economic growth...
...since the late 1960s, ensuring a quick recovery to pre-pandemic levels
No surprise then, that Macron has been odds on to return to power...
...since The Economist began to forecast this year’s election
You can see our latest prediction by clicking on the link
But in Auxerre, the market shoppers don’t exactly seem overjoyed at the prospect
Gallic grumpiness may not seem a surprise
Some argue pessimism is part of the French psyche
There’s even a French word for it–
With the war in Ukraine, the cost of living post-pandemic and rising fuel prices...
...perhaps there is reason for much of the rich world to feel gloomy right now
But for the French this discontent runs deeper
A recent survey found that three-quarters of them thought France was in decline
For market traders like farmer Denis Chatelain, business is good...
...but he’s still fed up.
And it’s the president who bears the brunt of his anger
His farm on the outskirts of Auxerre is only a two-hour drive from Paris...
...but to Denis it’s a world away from the seat of the French presidency
As he sees it, Macron’s policies...
...have really been about looking after business leaders and shareholders
It’s not unusual for the French to blame their woes on whoever is president...
...it comes with the territory for leaders...
...who get to exercise the huge power that is bestowed on that office
But the mood in Auxerre points to a sense of disconnection that is not just political
Auxerre is in a sparsely populated band of France known as the “diagonale du vide”...
...or empty diagonal
Like many mid-sized French towns, it suffers from industrial decline...
...and with no fast train to Paris, its population is effectively cut off...
...from the job opportunities in France’s big urban centres
It was in places like Auxerre, where people rely on their cars...
...that the gilets jaunes or yellow vest movement sprung from in 2018
Originally a protest against a tax rise on petrol and diesel...
...that transformed into a wider anti-government rebellion...
...today the movement has somewhat dissipated
But many former members are still taking to the street to air other grievances
It’s this group’s 35th weekly protest in a row...
...this time against France’s covid restrictions
In an effort to get more people vaccinated...
...Macron banned many employees in customer-facing roles from working...
...unless they were jabbed
A policy which angered many
As with immigration and taxation...
...it’s another issue that has been taken up with relish by France’s populist politicians...
...deepening the divide in French society
More than 50% of voters say they’d vote for a populist candidate...
...in the first round of the election
Such is the support for populist parties that two different hard-right candidates...
...have helped define this year’s election
Marine Le Pen who faced Macron in the second round in 2017...
...and newcomer Eric Zemmour...
...a former journalist who was recently convicted for inciting racial hatred
Emmanuel Bertrand is Zemmour’s local co-ordinator in the region...
Today he and his team are door-knocking in Chablis...
...a town 20km outside
of Auxerre
Zemmour set up the Reconquest party just a few months ago...
...with a promise to slash immigration and taxes
It’s a blend that initially proved potent on the doorstep, tapping into a nostalgic
idea of France
Even if it’s now started to go a little flat
Zemmour—and to a greater extent—Le Pen’s popularity...
...points to the depth of the geographical divide in France, already apparent five years
ago
In the second round of the 2017 election, Auxerre voted for Macron
But the further away from the city you go the higher the vote for Le Pen
This same dynamic can be seen around urban centres throughout the country
In 2022, Auxerre offers another, less scientific, way of reading the state of
the nation
Grégoire Courtois runs an independent bookshop in Auxerre...
...and in the last few years he’s noticed a town that’s become increasingly disillusioned
Macron came to power at the head of a centrist movement...
...that took widespread support from the Republicans and the Socialists...
...the established parties of the mainstream right and left
Neither has fully recovered
In a recent survey, 30% of those who are considering voting for Macron...
...say it’s by default rather than choice, as no other candidate convinces them
Under the cover of darkness, Auxerre’s elusive Macron supporters are out postering
If he does win again it would be a symbolic moment...
...the first French president for 20 years to win a second term
And it would put him in good stead to introduce new reforms
But with a fed-up population, unimpressed by its president...
...there may be questions over the strength of his mandate
This could spell trouble when the political mood of the French public turns even gloomier
For Macron, however hard-fought this election becomes...
...winning it may prove to be the easy part
If you’d like to see more about our forecast for the 2022 French Elections...
...click the link
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