>> NBC'S RICHARD ENGEL LIVE FOR
US THIS MORNING FROM UKRAINE'S
CAPITAL CITY.
RICHARD, THANKS SO MUCH.
>>> SO, JOE, YOU COULD HEAR AN
INCREASED URGENCY YESTERDAY AND
LAST NIGHT IN PRESIDENT
ZELENSKYY'S VOICE AROUND THIS
ATTACK AT THE NUCLEAR PLANT.
HE SAID THEY'RE READY TO NOT
ONLY CONTROL NUCLEAR POWER
AROUND EUROPE, BUT PERHAPS TO
SHUT IT DOWN AND PERHAPS TO BLOW
IT UP, WHETHER ACCIDENTALLY OR
NOT.
THE THAT FIRE IS OUT THANKS
GOODNESS AT THE NUCLEAR PLANT.
BUT YOU CAN HEAR ZELENSKYY IS
BEGGING FOR MORE HELP FROM THE
WEST.
>> WELL, ZELENSKYY OBVIOUSLY
TERRIFIED AS ARE THE PEOPLE IN
UKRAINE AND I WOULD GUESS
ANYBODY REASONABLE AND RATIONAL
IN EUROPE AND ACROSS THE WORLD
ALSO CONCERNED ABOUT THE FACT
THAT VLADIMIR PUTIN IS NOW
ATTACKING NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS.
IT IS A FRIGHTENING SCENARIO
THAT CONTINUES TO ESCALATE.
LET'S GO OVER TO THE MAP, TO THE
BIG BOARD AND TALK TO CLINT
WATTS.
HE IS THERE FOR US.
FORMER INFANTRY MAN, NOW A
DISTINGUISHED RESEARCH FELLOW AT
THE FOREIGN POLICY RESEARCH
INSTITUTE.
ALSO A NATIONAL SECURITY AN LIST
FOR NBC NEWS AND MSNBC.
CLINT, LET'S START WITH THE
NUCLEAR POWER PLANT.
SHOW US WHERE IT IS AND THE
SIGNIFICANCE OF ITS LOCATION.
>> THAT'S RIGHT, JOE.
ZAPORIZHZHIA IS WHAT WE WERE
TALKING ABOUT LAST NIGHT.
A FEW KEY NOTES ABOUT IT.
WE SAW SOME VIDEO YOU MIGHT HAVE
SEEN OUT ON SOCIAL MEDIA OF A
FIRE FIGHT IN AND AROUND THOSE
REACTORS.
WHAT DID THE RUSSIANS WANT TO
DO?
THEY WANT TO TAKE CONTROL OF THE
ENTIRE ENERGY SECTOR BECAUSE
THEY CAN DO IT WHEN THEY'RE
DOING SIEGE WARFARE LIKE WE'RE
SEEING IN MANY CITIES AROUND
UKRAINE TO TAKE CONTROL OF THE
POWER SERVICES.
THE MORE IMPORTANT POINT MIGHT
BE PSYCHOLOGICAL, INJECTING FEAR
INTO AUDIENCES.
WHILE WE'RE TRYING TO GET TO THE
BOTTOM OF WHAT HAPPENED HERE
LAST NIGHT, IS IT SAFE, I WOULD
BET RUSSIAN DISINFORMATION
BROADCAST BACK AT HOME IS SAYING
THIS IS THE UKRAINIAN'S POSSIBLY
USING SOME SORT OF NUCLEAR
MATERIAL OR CAUSING A BLAST.
WE SAW IT LAST WEEK WHEN
CHERNOBYL WAS TAKEN BACK.
THE LAST THING I WANT TO ADD
FROM A MILITARY PERSPECTIVE IS
WE KEEP SEEING DISCUSSIONS OF
NUCLEAR SITES.
NUCLEAR SITES ALSO HAVE MASSIVE
RAIL HEADS.
IF YOU ARE AN INVADING ARMY WITH
LARGE ARMOR FORMATIONS, YOU ARE
BOGGED DOWN LOGISTICALLY AND YOU
WANT TO MOVE THINGS QUICKLY OVER
TIME, TAKING RAIL HEADS,
PARTICULARLY THOSE OUTSIDE OF
CITY, IS EXTREMELY IMPORTANT.
THERE'S ANOTHER LOGISTICAL
COMPONENT FOR THEM BECAUSE
THEY'RE NOT DOING WELL ON THE
ROADS RIGHT NOW.
THE OTHER THING THAT I WANT TO
BRING UP HERE IS WHILE WE'VE
TALKED ABOUT THE FIRST WEEK AND
TWO DAYS THE RUSSIANS REALLY
STRUGGLING, UKRAINIANS
OVERACHIEVING, THE RUSSIANS ARE
NOW USING THE COMBAT POWER TO
TAKE HOLD.
SEVERAL THINGS HAVE HAPPENED
OVER THE LAST 48 HOURS.
FIRST THIS UNIT IN CRIMEA, THE
PENINSULA THEY SEIZED IN 2014,
IT HAS CREATED A LAND BRIDGE TO
ITS FORCES HERE IN DOMNBAS.
THESE ARE SURROUNDING THE TOWN
OF MARIUPOL.
THIS IS TOTAL SIEGE WARFARE,
INDIRECT FIRE, CUTTING OFF
INFRASTRUCTURE.
THESE FOLKS ARE IN FOR ABSOLUTE
DISASTER RIGHT NOW.
SEPARATELY, KHERSON, THE OTHER
BREAKAWAY MIKA WAS TALKING
ABOUT.
KHERSON IS ESSENTIALLY THE MOUTH
OF THE RIVER AS IT ENTERS INTO
THE BLACK SEA AND THERE IS A
BRIDGE HERE IN KHERSON WHICH
ALLOWS THE RUSSIAN MILITARY TO
MOVE TO THE WESTERN SIDE OF
UKRAINE.
IF THEY CAN DO THAT, THEY CAN
POSSIBLY MARCH ALL THE WAY TO
THE MOLDOVAN BORDER, ESSENTIALLY
SEALING OFF THIS ENTIRE AREA
HERE.
THERE WOULD BE NO SEA RESUPPLY,
NO WAY TO GET LOGISTICS IN AND
IT ALLOWS THE RUSSIANS TO USE
THINGS LIKE LANDING CRAFTS TO
BRING IN MORE FORCES MORE
QUICKLY IN THE SOUTH.
BRINGING IT BACK TO THE BIGGER
PICTURE, I THINK THAT'S WHERE
WE'RE AT THIS MORNING.
WE HAVE BEEN TALKING A LOT ABOUT
THE CONVOY, THAT IT HAS BEEN
STUCK THERE UP IN THE NORTH, BUT
I THINK THERE'S SOME BIGGER
THINGS TO THINK ABOUT.
THEY TRIED THIS INITIAL MOVE
RIGHT HERE, TRYING TO GET INTO
KYIV.
YOU MIGHT REMEMBER A FAILED
AIRBORNE ASSAULT WHICH SEEM TO
HAVE BEEN AN ATTEMPT TO TAKE
DOWN AND TOPPLE THE GOVERNMENT
REAL EARLY.
THAT CONVOY WHILE BOGGED DOWN,
YOU ARE SEEING THEM STARTING TO
MAKE GAINS IN THROUGH HERE.
THERE WAS INDISCRIMINATE KILLING
YESTERDAY.
NOT PARTICULARLY SIGNIFICANT
UNLESS YOU ARE BUILDING UP HERE.
YOU WANT TO TAKE THE REAR AREAS.
YOU PROBABLY HEARD DEFENSE
SECRETARY KIRBY YESTERDAY
TALKING ABOUT THESE TOWNS.
IF YOU ARE MOVING A MASSIVE ARMY
IN AND TRYING TO TAKE KYIV YOU
DON'T WANT TO BE FIGHTING
INSURGENTS IN YOUR REAR AREA.
YOU WANT TO SECURE YOUR
LOGISTICS BASIS.
THAT BRINGS US TO THE END.
THEY'RE NOT MARCHING FROM THE
SOUTH AND FROM THE EAST.
THEIR ULTIMATE GOAL IS TO
ENCIRCLE KYIV AND CUT OFF ALL
RESUPPLY OVER THE GROUND FROM
POLAND.
>> SO, CLINT, LET ME ASK YOU, IN
THE AREAS THAT ARE SHADED
PINK -- AND I DO FIND THAT AN
INTERESTING COLOR SCHEME FOR
RUSSIAN TROOPS.
IN THE PINK AREAS, IS THAT --
ARE THOSE AREAS WHERE THE
RUSSIANS HAVE ACTUALLY MOVED
THROUGH, RUSSIAN TROOPS HAVE
MOVED THROUGH OR WOULD YOU SAY
THAT THOSE SHADED AREAS ARE
AREAS THAT THEY EFFECTIVELY
CONTROL, BECAUSE AS YOU KNOW
THERE'S A BIG DIFFERENCE.
WE CERTAINLY FOUND IT OUT IN
VIETNAM AND THEN IN IRAQ AND
AFGHANISTAN.
IT IS ONE THING FOR YOUR TROOPS
TO MOVE THROUGH AND WIN BATTLES
AND KEEP MOVING TO A CITY.
IT IS QUITE ANOTHER TO CONTROL
IT.
WHAT ARE WE LOOKING AT HERE WHEN
WE LOOK AT THIS MAP?
>> YEAH, SEVERE MISCALCULATION
BY THE RUSSIAN ARMY, JOE, ACROSS
THE BOARD.
THEY TRIED TO MOVE IN WITH A
VERY DAUNTING SORT OF BLITZKRIEG
TYPE OF ATTACK, THEY DIDN'T
INTEGRATE IN THE AIR AROUND THEY
DIDN'T SECURE THE REAR AREAS.
THESE CITIES WILL BE FILLED WITH
INSURGENTS.
IT WAS MENTIONED THAT HUNDREDS
OF THOUSANDS OF TROOPS WOULD BE
NEEDED TO SECURE THIS.
IT MEANS THAT PUTIN'S PLAN WHILE
AUDACIOUS IS FLAWED.
>> CLINT, THAT'S WHAT I WANTED
TO BRING UP TO YOU.
AGAIN, THIS IS NOT WISHFUL
THINKING.
I KNOW THERE'S A LOT OF WISHFUL
THINKING IN EARLY DAYS OF THE
WAR, BUT CAN YOU EXPLAIN TO OUR
VIEWERS HOW THERE JUST ARE NOT
ENOUGH -- THERE ARE ENOUGH
RUSSIAN TROOPS TO BLOW UP
BUILDINGS AND KILL A LOT OF
PEOPLE, CAUSE A LOT OF MISERY,
BUT THEY DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH
TROOPS TO CONTROL A COUNTRY THIS
SIZE, DO THEY?
WHEREVER THEY GO, THEY'RE GOING
TO HAVE INSURGENCIES COMING UP
BEHIND THEM, AROUND THEM, UNLESS
THEY FLATTEN THE ENTIRE COUNTRY.
EVEN THEN YOU SOMEHOW SENSE THE
UKRAINIANS ARE GOING TO FIGURE
OUT A WAY TO DO WHAT THE IRAQIS
DID TO US IN 2004, '05, '06,
'08, '09?
>> THAT'S CORRECT.
INVASIONS ARE EASY,
COUNTERINSURGENCIES ARE
EXTREMELY DIFFICULT.
THEY FOUND THIS OUT IN
AFGHANISTAN.
WE FOUND IT OUT IN IRAQ.
WHEN YOU WATCH WHAT THEY'RE
DOING HERE, THEY'RE TRYING
ESSENTIALLY TO JUST DESTROY
MAJOR POPULATION CENTERS IN
HOPES OF GETTING RID OF ANY
POTENTIAL FUTURE INSURGENTS.
YOU HEARD NEGOTIATIONS ABOUT
CREATING PATHWAYS FOR PEOPLE TO
LEAVE THE CITY.
FROM THE RUSSIAN'S PERSPECTIVE,
THE FEWER PEOPLE IN THE CITY THE
FEWER POTENTIAL INSURGENTS OVER
THE HORIZON AND THEY CAN USE
DIRECT FIRES, INDIRECT FIRES TO
JUST CRIPPLE THE CITIES BUT THAT
WILL NOT WORK.
WHAT WE'VE SEEN FROM THE
UKRAINIAN PEOPLE IS THIS IS AN
INSURGENT FORCE.
NOT ONLY ARE THEY VERY WELL