On 24 August 2021, Algeria's foreign minister announced that
his country had broken off diplomatic relations with neighbouring Morocco.
Marking a serious deterioration in relations between these two
important North African states, the move comes after months of escalating tensions.
So, what caused it? And what is it likely to mean?
Hello and welcome. If you're new to the channel, my name is James Ker-Lindsay and here I take an
informed look at international relations, conflicts and the origins of countries.
There are many ways that states can express their displeasure towards each other.
These can range from issuing a formal statement of protest, through to withdrawing diplomats,
introducing trade restrictions, imposing sanctions or even closing borders.
But, short of armed conflict, perhaps most serious step
is a decision to break off diplomatic relations.
While the two countries continue to recognize each other as states, they cease official contact.
While this often represents the most serious escalation of a dispute,
it can sometimes be the prelude for armed confrontation.
It's against this backdrop that Algeria's announcement that it's broken off
diplomatic relations with neighbouring Morocco is a cause for real concern.
Coming after a year of rising tensions over a range of issues, it naturally prompts the
question of whether we could be on the verge of seeing a more serious escalation of the situation.
Algeria and Morocco lie in northwest Africa, along the Mediterranean.
At almost 2.4 million square kilometers, or 920,000 square miles, Algeria is the largest
country in Africa and the 10th largest of the 193 members of the United Nations.
In comparison, Morocco is less than a fifth of its size,.
At 450,000 square kilometers, or 170,000 square miles, it's the 57th largest UN member.
In terms of population, they're rather more closely matched.
Algeria has around 43 million inhabitants,
as compared to Morocco's 36 million - putting them in 34th and 40th place, respectively.
In terms of GDP per capita, they are also similar;
with Algeria standing at around $3,300 to morocco's $3,000.
Culturally both countries are predominantly Arab-speaking,
with significant berber-speaking minorities, and largely Sunni Muslim.
They're also both members of the Arab League, the Organization of Islamic Cooperation,
the African Union and the 120-member Non-Aligned Movement of developing countries.
The roots of the current tensions stretch back to the end of colonial rule.
In 1956, Morocco regained its independence after 44 years as a French protectorate.
Six years later, and after a notoriously brutal war,
Algeria won its independence from France as well.
Almost from the start, problems emerged.
First and foremost, Morocco laid claim to two areas that it argued
had been unfairly awarded to Algeria by the French colonial authorities.
In September 1963, it invaded Algeria sparking
a short and relatively low-level conflict known as the Sand War.
While a peace agreement was eventually reached, and Morocco dropped its claim to the areas,
the dispute would cause lasting damage to bilateral relations.
Perhaps the most significant result was Algeria's decision to throw its
support behind Western Sahara's attempts to secure independence.
I've covered this issue at length in other videos and so I won't go into details again here.
But, by way of summary, as Spain faced growing calls to decolonize Western Sahara in the 1960s,
Morocco and Mauritania argued that it should be ceded to them.
When Spain finally left, in early 1976, they seized control of the territory.
In response, the Polisario Front - the Western Saharan national
liberation movement - launched an insurgency.
Crucially, this was backed by Algeria, which provided the organization with military
and financial support and allowed it to operate from its territory.
All this would see the first break in diplomatic relations between the two countries;
although they were eventually restored in 1988.
But while Western Sahara has had the greatest effect on relations,
tensions have also been exacerbated by other developments.
For example, in 1994, as Algeria sank deeper into a civil war against Islamist militants,
two Algerian insurgents were involved in an attack on a Moroccan hotel
that left two Spanish tourists dead.
In response, Morocco announced that Algerians would now need visas to enter the country.
In retaliation, Algeria closed the border - which remains closed even to this day.
On top of all this, relations were also strained by their rather different political outlooks.
While Morocco was a conservative Islamic monarchy,
Algeria emerged as a socialist republic espousing secular Arab nationalism.
Given these long-standing difficulties,
what's caused this latest dramatic deterioration in relations?
In essence, it comes down to a series of developments over the course of 2020 and 2021.
As ever, Western Sahara figures highly.
Although Morocco and Polisario reached a UN-brokered peace agreement in 1991
that envisaged an independence referendum, the vote has never taken place.
Amidst growing frustration, in November 2020, Polisario announced it was ending
the 29-year ceasefire and launched a series of attacks on Moroccan forces in the territory.
Given Algeria's long-standing support for Polisario,
Morocco argues that this could only have happened with direct Algerian approval.
Meanwhile, in December 2020, the Trump Administration recognised Morocco's
claim to Western Sahara; thereby reversing decades of U.S. policy.
Given that the growing number of African countries also appear to be moving in the same direction,
with more and more countries opening consulates in Laayoune, the capital of Western Sahara,
Algeria is no doubt nervous that Morocco's claim is now starting to gain real traction.
The second major factor is Israel.
In return for Washington's decision to accept Morocco's sovereignty over Western Sahara,
Morocco announced that had formally recognised Israel.
While the two countries have long had relatively good relations behind the scenes, like most of
the Arab world, Morocco had refused to formally acknowledge Israel since its creation in 1948.
Indeed, up until 2020, just three members of the Arab League had recognised Israel:
Egypt, Jordan and Palestine.
However, over the course of late summer and autumn 2020, Washington brokered a series of agreements
that saw the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Sudan, and, finally, Morocco accept Israel.
As a long-standing advocate of the Palestinian cause, Algeria was extremely critical of these
moves and was quick to condemn Morocco's decision; arguing that it was in fact all part of a plot
by Israel - or "the Zionist entity", as it calls it - to move closer to its borders.
To add to all this, tensions have overflowed into other areas.
In July 2021, a row broke out after Morocco accused Algeria of hypocrisy by calling
for Western Sahara's self-determination, but refusing to consider it in the case of Kabylia;
a large Berber-inhabited area in the north of Algeria that seen a growing independence movement.
Indeed, just a few months earlier, Algeria had designated the Movement for the
Self-Determination of Kabylia, MAK, a terrorist organisation.
Furious at this interference in its internal affairs, and arguing that the two cases were
very different, Algeria recalled its ambassador from Morocco in protest.
More recently, these various trends came together when Algeria accused Morocco,
Israel and MAK of starting a series of major forest fires that have ravaged the country.
Additionally, tensions have also grown following
revelations about the widespread use of Israeli-made Pegasus surveillance software
by various governments to spy on internal and external targets.
In its announcement that it was breaking off relations,
Algeria accused morocco of having used the technology against its officials.
So, just how serious is the situation?
By all accounts, relations between Morocco and
Algeria now appear to be at their lowest point in over 50 years.
Given that both countries remain highly militarised and heavily armed, fielding the
second and third largest armed forces in Africa after Egypt, this surely gives rise for concern.
That said, any talk of conflict between Morocco and Algeria needs to be treated with caution.
For a start, Morocco appears to have little wish to provoke a military confrontation.
Indeed, at the end of July, before relations were cut, the Moroccan king explicitly called
for an easing of tensions between the two countries, including the opening of the border.
Moreover, following Algeria's announcement that it was ending diplomatic relation, Morocco was quick
to deny what it called "absurd" accusations and made a deliberate attempt to sound conciliatory.
Given that Morocco also seems to be gaining on the diplomatic front,
it would seem to have little reason to want to escalate the situation.
Of course, the renewed attacks by Polisario are an issue.
But there seems to be little indication that this is a serious problem for Rabat, especially
given the fortified sand wall it has built in Western Sahara to keep out Polisario forces.
In this sense, the real concern would seem to lie with Algeria.
Here the picture is rather more worrying.
There's no doubt that it feels on the back foot, both politically and diplomaticall.
Its influence is clearly not what it once was, especially in a wider African context.
Quite apart from the fact that Morocco seems to be gaining
ground in encouraging African states to support its position on Western Sahara,
the recent decision by the African Union to admit Israel as an observer, despite strong
opposition from Algiers, will also have signalled a sense that it's becoming more marginalised.
Also, the fact it will certainly have endorsed the recent renewed attacks
by Polisario or Morocco is a worrying sign that things are becoming more militarised.
That said, there are also grounds for cautious optimism.
It's also important to note that throughout the long history of the Western Sahara dispute,
Algeria has always made sure that it's never been directly involved in fighting.
And there's little indication that this has changed.
But perhaps the greatest hope that it too is hoping to keep things in the realm of politics
comes with the detail in its announcement that it was breaking off diplomatic relations.
Rather than the full and complete break of all ties with Morocco,
it noted that it would retain a consular presence.
Such small things can send big messages.
But all this also needs to be understood in terms of continuing political instability in Algeria.
After two years of protests, there's a sense that the Algerian decision is
designed to appeal to a domestic audience, especially as it cracks down on dissent.
Needless to say, this adds an unwelcome element to the situation.
While the government may not want to see an escalation of tensions,
one could argue that it has now backed itself into a corner.
It may not want war, but there is little more it can now do diplomatically.
Again, this contributes to concerns about the recent announcement.
Algeria's decision to break off diplomatic relations with neighbouring Morocco marks
a serious new deterioration in relations between these two north African states.
Long strained over a range of issues, not least of all the Western Sahara,
ties have become increasingly tense since the end of 2020.
The question is what happens now?
While it may simply herald another step in a long-standing cold war between the two countries,
there will obviously be fears that the two may be edging closer to armed conflict - especially if,
as some fear, Algeria sees no further room for manoeuvre.
In this sense, while it's important to stress there's
little sign that either side wants to see an armed confrontation,
there's nevertheless the sense that things could yet head in that direction.
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