- This picture is from Fifth Avenue in New York City
in the year 1900.
All horses and one car.
This is the same street 13 years later.
All cars and no horses.
We went from horses to cars in just 13 years.
When we find a technology that's a lot better,
things move a lot faster than we think.
And if you think the only change
when self-driving cars arrive
is that there won't be a driver in the front seat,
you are wrong.
Self-driving cars will change everything.
This is a major change in society
and will have an impact on all our lives.
One of the biggest disruptions in a generation,
a total game changer that creates a lot of opportunities.
- [Announcer] This is "Raw Startup".
- I'm the founder of Vivino,
the world's largest wine app and community
with over 60 million users all over the world.
Building Vivino, I've seen what opportunities
these disruptions can create.
We built Vivino on the smartphone,
and I think the self-driving car can change
the world as much as the smartphone.
This is about disruption,
and this might be the biggest disruption in a generation,
especially in a country like the US,
which is kind of a car country.
And just to clarify here,
I'm talking about when we get to full autonomous driving,
when cars drive around by themselves,
pick up people, and move them somewhere else.
We're not talking Tesla self-driving
where you have to sit like this and look at the road
while you're self-driving.
We're talking no driver and no steering wheel.
I do not know when this is happening,
but we're getting closer every single day.
It's happening right now in San Francisco.
Multiple companies are doing actual rides
with no driver or any operator.
This is real self-driving in the wild.
And Cruise, one of the companies doing this,
are so far now they actually charge for it.
No testing, this is real.
Breakthrough technologies have a tendency to move slow,
slow, slow, slow, and then boom, they take off.
AI was kinda boring, not much happening,
and then boom, you got ChatGPT.
We also have rumors of Apple building a self-driving car.
Bloomberg claims that Apple wants to have
a fully self-driving car by 2025.
Now, that's ambitious and very big news.
Apple has a tendency to release products exactly
when the technology is ready, take the iPhone.
This is not gonna be a small thing.
Hey, look, nobody's driving the car. Cool.
No, this is a total change in how we live our lives.
Sure, you may think this has taken too long already,
but when things happen, they happen fast,
history has told us that.
We sometimes forget how big a shift this is gonna be,
so you better get ready.
Finally, in the video,
I will also talk about what jobs
will be impacted by this change.
I'm not just talking about truck or taxi drivers here,
it's gonna have an impact all over.
I'll make a full list.
Now let's have a look at how it all changes.
You will not own a car.
Yes, I said it, car ownership is over.
You will not be going to a dealership every few years
to get a new car.
Once we get the self-driving car,
it just won't make sense anymore.
Let me explain.
In the past 100 years, we've had car ownership,
and we've actually had an incredibly high price
for that convenience.
The car is usually the second-largest purchase we make
in our life, only second to whatever we live in,
so this is a really big investment.
However, we only use it about 8% of the time.
92% of time it's parked.
That obviously isn't very efficient.
Once we have self-driving cars,
we'll have cars roaming around wherever you live,
and they'll be available within 90 seconds.
We'll have the convenience of having our own car,
but we won't have to pay as much for it.
I'm not quite done explaining this,
as the next one is also related to this.
Transport costs will come down by at least 75%,
and yes, I said 75% less cost,
so just 25% of what we pay today.
Some people even say 10% of today,
so a 90% discount.
And this is also why car ownership is over,
the cost will just come radically down.
The current estimated cost for one mile
in a fully autonomous vehicle is 20 cent.
If you take a taxi, total cost is around 2 to $3 per mile.
But we should really compare to driving your own car,
and that cost is around 80 cent per mile.
So yes, if we compare a fully autonomous vehicle
with owning a car, costs go down from 80 to 20 cents,
a 75% discount.
Now, do you still wanna own a car?
Probably not.
Decision is simple.
Say you spend $1000 now, you'll spend $250 with autonomous.
What do you wanna do?
You probably don't want to own a car.
On top of that, these autonomous vehicles
are pretty convenient.
Things like, you can take a big car when it's a full family,
and a small car when alone,
and maybe even a sleeper car some days.
You can work or watch Netflix as you drive around.
You can actually drink and drive,
as you're actually not really driving.
Again, do you still wanna own a car?
I hear some people say, "Yes, I love cars."
Great, you should have a car.
Just don't use it for transport
because that's not gonna make any sense at all.
It is true there will always be cars around,
just like there are horses around,
we just don't use horses for transport anymore.
We will have car stables like we have horse stables.
Just like horses, cars will be a beautiful and fun hobby.
Also, an expensive hobby just like horses are today.
And don't expect to be able to drive them on regular roads,
you will not be able to afford that.
Human drivers are such a high risk
that the insurance will be insanely high.
Also, a bonus here on the cost
is that shipping costs will come way down.
It will probably be close to zero,
a big change for e-commerce,
and also a game changer for retail.
I know I'm putting some radical predictions out there,
and if you disagree, put 'em in the comments.
Also, if you like what you see, please subscribe,
it really helps me a lot.
At least 1 million lives will be saved every year.
Every year, 1.3 million people die in traffic.
Every single death is obviously a tragedy.
Most people believe that 90% of those lives
will be saved when we have self-driving cars.
This means 1 million lives saved every single year.
I believe that number might be even higher.
I think maybe 99% of all lives might be saved
when we have fully autonomous cars.
You think, how the heck can that happen?
Well, because 94% of all accidents are due to human error.
Yes, 94% is human error.
You take the human out of the equation,
and suddenly you lose 90% of the accidents.
Think about the big killers in traffic.
Computers don't get distracted,
they don't drink alcohol, they don't speed,
and they will follow instructions.
Speed and alcohol are the big killers here,
and they will not be a part of an autonomous future.
No cars parked in the cities.
This is a big deal.
We use our best real estate in the cities for parking,
or should I say storing cars.
It makes no sense at all.
Imagine a world where there are no cars parked in the city.
That is coming.
Cities in the US are 30% parking spots,
and there are eight parking spots for every single car.
This will create some great opportunities
for real estate developers.
What will happen to all that space?
Almost all the cars in the city will be driving,
and when they need charging or storage,
they'll go out of the city where it's less expensive.
This can mean a total redesign of our cities
as all this space becomes available.
Now, please, let's use it wisely,
it really is a great opportunity
to make our living space better.
A bonus here is also no gas stations.
Cars will probably drive out
of the very expensive urban areas to recharge.
Take LA today, you have all these massive streets
with five, six gas stations.
All that space is gonna free up.
In a second, we'll look more at the job market
and what jobs could be lost.
Stay tuned, you might be surprised.
Faster and more comfortable travel.
Yes, obviously transport will change a lot.
We won't own a car,
and you'll use different cars for different occasions.
Sometimes you'll be on a budget
and you'll be in a bigger car with other people,
sometimes you'll have a small car as you want to be alone,
sometimes you wanna sit and work,
and sometimes you might have a sleeper car for longer rides.
Added fantastic bonus here.
No traffic lights and no traffic bumps. Not bad.
I am in the wine business, and in the future,
you will be able to get a glass of wine
before you go driving because you're not
really driving the car.
I'm not sure if the cars will be faster in the cities,
but on the freeways, they will definitely be faster.
With no humans messing things up,
things will be more consistent with fewer stops.
In the end, I do believe we'll get faster from A to B.
New freedom for millions of people.
Most people in the world do not have access to a car,
mainly for two reasons.
They can't afford one or they can't drive one.
The affordability is a big deal here.
Having a car costs a lot of money,
and most people in the world cannot afford that.
With the cost coming way, way down,
this problem will be solved for a lot of people,
especially outside the western world.
The other group are people that aren't able to drive a car.
It could be a disability, a medical condition, or their age.
I'm not talking old people here,
you actually have to have a certain age
before you can drive a car.
And this will also change.
You can take your six-year-old,
put them in the back of an autonomous car,
and actually look at a screen
and watch them on the backseat
as they go visit their grandma.
So this will be a game changer for millions,
maybe even billions of people.
They will get more freedom,
a total game changer in their life.
More cars might give us some other problems,
like the environment.
We'll probably have to solve that
before all those people hit the road.
Take a look at this list, and I say again,
self-driving cars will have a massive impact
on everyone's lives, there is no doubt about that.
It will also create a lot of opportunities.
We're not done yet, let's have a look at the jobs
that will be impacted the most.
Obviously, taxi, ride hailing, and truck drivers.
Delivery drivers.
Parking and valet attendees.
This might even happen faster,
as the cars start parking themselves.
Auto mechanics.
There will be fewer accidents
and therefore we need fewer people fixing cars.
Auto insurers.
Same here, less accidents and no car ownership,
not the same need for insurance.
Car manufacturing workers.
As we will not own cars, we probably need fewer cars,
this could be compensated by more people driving.
That remains to be seen.
Finally, car salespeople.
I say good riddance.
Globally, that's tens of millions of jobs.
And in the US alone,
probably around 5 million jobs.
This all sounds bad,
but self-driving cars will probably create
the same amount of jobs.
I'm honestly less worried about this.
Some people have to be retrained, go to new jobs,
but usually, we create new jobs at the same level.
All in all, I think we should be cheering on
the self-driving car.
It will make our lives so much better.
A lot of jobs will be lost,
but history shows us that they usually
be created somewhere else.
I'm less worried about that.
We're talking millions of lives saved,
a lot of money saved, freedom to a lot of people.
Most of this is good.
Let's celebrate the self-driving car.
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