match. Don't get discouraged because as more people test,
experience of having match with other people to be able to help
how the two of you match up. I hope this video is helpful in
you probably much further back than seven generations. Even if
generations and unless you have an extensive family tree on
That's because most of these people are actually related to
thumbs up so they can reach more viewers. Don't forget to
the amount of DNA they have says that they're within that
you're going to be able to find more and you'll have that
so that's why when you're looking at a lot of these
helping you know how many people you're actually going to
both of your sides, you're probably not going to find out
seven generations, most of them are outside that seven
databases are showing thousands of people that you potentially
probably only about 400 in the seventh generation time frame
smaller amounts and it will make people look like fourth
passed down several generations without being broken down into
cousins who are really eighth or 9th or 10th cousins even and
pretty random. We know from a group standpoint, it's 50%. It
averages out to 50%, but from on an individual standpoint
it's different so you can have large segments of DNA that are
genealogy. If you like this video, be sure to give it a
subscribe so that you won't miss another episode of Family
others as they test and they get to be part of this genetic
match even though from the numbers we've just shown it's
gets passed down to different generations individually is
of thousands and with seven cousins you had 400, 000 and
400, maybe 450 people that you're potentially related to
already said that we don't know how many Second Cousins we have
it's still only about 120 of them that you're going to be
little bit but certainly not near as much because it's just
have 1, 000 or 1500 or 2000 or 2500 matches Well, it really
even family tree DNA when you look at your matches you may
3% of those totals and you can see by the time you get to
has to do with the randomness of DNA. All these numbers in
you don't have that many second cousins that number is going to
trees I have found one second cousin in all of that so one
actuality none of my first cousins have tested at all. So
your first through your seventh cousins it's only going to be a
I match with zero of them. With my second cousins I had
cousins and fourth cousins the numbers are starting to go up a
multiply by 3% I'm probably only going to match five of
in numbers you can see from my first cousins. Even though I
162nd cousins, maybe I have a lot less when we get to third
of the population of the United States that has changed. So I
databases 23 and me and Ancestry. com right now there's
now have to take the Cousins that I could potentially match
those so how many people have tested now in the two major
probably only going to match with one person. And in
have thirty-two first cousins which may seem like a lot. I'm
people some of them are not from the United States but
to we're only going to match those that have actually
tested. And then again only going to match fraction of
be even less so why is it then that ancestry in 23 and me and
and if you don't have that many first cousins or if you know
trying to calculate how many potential matches you could
it's still in the thousands so you would think that by testing
and fourth cousins but you maybe looking at your list from
with DNA we'd still be able to find all the second and third
Cousins that you're in the hundreds. So why is this? Why
third cousins I said there was only a 90% probability so even
cousins. I'm going to match somewhere with all of them same
with all of my 160 -second cousins then we get to our
them five that's it and from all of my DNA testing that I've
out of those possible five so most likely my second cousins
able to match with so all told if you add those numbers up
potentially 160 that I could match with because I gotta
it gets to 9 million with 9 million people that's about 3%
to 9 million to make the math really easy and so that I don't
may have thousands of cousins that we potentially can match
tested. Because DNA is a record that you hold inside of you
don't we match up with that? Well, it's because of the third
variable. We also need to look at who's actually had their DNA
the predicted relationship there's only one or two second
them so now we have the number of cousins that we match and
Ancestry. com or from 23 and me and you maybe seeing that hey
100%. probability so we can multiply those across so my 32
even at seventh cousins where I have 400007th cousins
we have. So, like I said, first and second cousins it's about
about 400, 000 of and it gets into the millions of eighths
already talked about what's the probability that you actually
share DNA with any of those cousins and so to find the
means I have about 8 hundred third cousins and I have 4004th
many second cousins as you do first cousins how accurate is.
of my second cousins. I don't know them. Now, that may be
times how many second cousins. So, you can see me starting off
and without mapping all that out, I'm not going to find out
number of cousins that we could actually match to, we gotta
Well, over large populations that's probably about accurate
depending on how large your family is just like with your
instance, I don't know because I don't know my second cousins
number it really all depends so for the rest of us who don't
until you test you haven't actually created that record
they even know almost all of their second cousins and
cousins and there's you know a handful of third or fourth
cousins and and it's not until you get to the six seventh
aren't into DNA testing near as much or I don't really have
have are based off of some theoretical numbers. We've
because already have 32 first cousins and so there was no
done so far and checking with matches and trying to build
out there that I could possibly match with but remember, we
about 720 of them and we continue on to we find that
theoretically I'm probably only going to match about 4, 000 of
sixth cousins 3% is only 120 of them even though you had tens
cousins and on down til I get to seventh cousins which I have
and ninths and tenths cousins. So, there's a lot of cousins
and so we're taking estimate of that but the amount of DNA that
need to get to know all these other second cousins because I
tight knit, you probably don't know the majority of your
going to start with 32 in building up my table. Now, the
with and I need to multiply that by 3% to see who's
actually tested that I'm going to match with. And as we fill
have to redo this video with new numbers in six months when
that's a good starting point I'm actually going to round up
about 7 million samples now some of these are the same
those people that we share any DNA with. So, the vast majority
zero first cousins. So, we gotta have an idea of where to
fourth cousins. We share it with about 15% of our fifth
the child of parents who were both only children, you have
into a database that can match with anybody else. So while we
when you're looking at genealogies. Over my specific
with but then we get to third cousins and the numbers go
grandparents kids now I myself I have 32 first cousins I can
with 32 first cousins, I have 160 second cousins and that
testing of you and of them is not going to help find that
cousins and again, just using a rule of thumb, I would use five
though that number is 800 I'm only going to be able to match
people they do know some of their second cousins and maybe
So, there's 10% of our third cousins that we share no DNA
multiply the probability times by the number of cousins that
and I don't want to do that. So, then we get two third
already have this huge family to begin with but for some
commented that they have 120 first cousins 120 first cousins
second cousins. I honestly can't think of the names of any
of all of our cousins, we don't share DNA with and so DNA
know who our second cousins are we just have to use a rule of
thumb and the rule of thumb I use is you got five times as
first cousins that maybe a small number it may be a large
next is our second cousins. Unless your family is really
count them all up my wife on the other hand she only has
how many first cousins they have those would be the
start with and First Cousins is a good place to start. So, I'm
get to seventh cousins and beyond, it's less than 1% of
on them, we're never going to be able to match up and it gets
worse from there. We share DNA with forty-five percent of our
so it really varies widely family to family and if you are
cousins and only about 5% of our six cousins and once you
four first cousins I remember on one of the videos somebody
match. So, the second thing that we need to know is how
many cousins do we have? Everybody probably knows about
with and no matter what DNA testing we do on ourselves and
and second cousins, all of them we share some bit of our DNA
cousins, hundreds, thousands, even millions but it's not
actual testing, we haven't ever found any second cousins that
we go to the statistical models, it's actually pretty
don't share DNA. So, it's probably 100% also. So, first
going to share DNA with every single one of our first
down. We only share DNA with about 90% of our third cousins.
actually related to?
first cousins that is 1 00percent. We are always
close to 1 hundred percent, more than 99% and so far from
sharing DNA with any random cousin actually is. Now for our
cousins. So that's real easy to calculate. Second cousins, when
cousins we're actually going to be able to find from our DNA
cousins you can expect to actually find through DNA
segment of DNA. Today, we're going to talk about how many
that we need to know beforehand in order to figure out how many
because of the way that DNA is inherited. There's some things
The first thing is we need to know what the probability of us
calculate how Cousins we can hope to find from our DNA test.
test. Now, there's three things we need to know in order to
you you have all these matches. Well, how many of them are you
History Fanatics.
testing. Now, this might seem like it could be any number of Howdy, I'm Andy Lee with Family History Fanatics and this is a
So, you've tested your DNA and now the companies are telling