In March 2020, Arsenal announced that Jaeson Rosenfeld was leaving the club. Rosenfeld
is credited with having revolutionised the club’s use of data and analytics, and departed
to take up a new position at FIFA, under the club’s former head-coach, Arsene Wenger,
who is now the governing body’s head of global football development.
Rosenfeld was the founder of an organisation called StatDNA, whose history with Arsenal
dates all the way back to 2011 and was necessitated, in part, by a record for poor transfer dealings.
The partnership originally began on a consultancy basis, with Arsenal paying a fee of $250,000
for exclusive use of StatDNA’s services, which included talent identification and the
gaining of tactical insight.
In 2012, however, that relationship changed. At the behest Ivan Gazidis, then chief executive,
and Hendrik Almstadt, the former head of business development, Rosenfeld and his team led a
presentation to Wenger which culminated in Arsenal purchasing StatDNA for £2m and integrating
the company into their footballing structure. Over time and with the organisation in house,
Rosenfeld would become one of Wenger’s most trusted advisors. Rather than simply being
a tool with which to guide transfer activity, the department – ultimately rebranded as
Arsenal Data Analytics – would become fundamental to many of the club’s technical processes.
According to reporting by The Athletic’s David Ornstein and James McNicholas, this
extended to aiding opposition analysis, with Rosenfeld providing a twenty-page dossier
prior to each game. While, away from match preparation, his data evaluation was also
used as part of performance monitoring and injury prevention.
Other clubs have also leaned heavily on data analysis. Damien Comolli stressed the importance
of analytics during his time at Tottenham, then later at Liverpool, and one of his mentees
– Michael Edwards – has achieved great success as the club’s current sporting director.
As of April 2020, Manchester United are also in the process of building their own data
analysis team and continue to advertise for the various positions ahead of a presumed
Summer start date.
Arsenal can no longer be described as holding a technical advantage in this area and, on
the basis of relatively inefficient transfer deals towards the end of Wenger’s tenure,
that seems to have been the case for some time.
In a 2017 article by Rory Smith of the New York Times, it was revealed that StatDNA’s
work had raised concerns over the potential signing of Antoine Greizmann, then a winger
at Real Sociedad, and also the physical durability of Kevin de Bruyne, prior to his move to Manchester
City from Wolfsburg.
Neither verdict has aged particularly well, nor has the decision in 2018 to appoint Unai
Emery as Arsene Wenger’s successor, which Rosenfeld and his team were part of, but not
ultimately responsible for.
To this day, supporters remain sceptical. The original acquisition of the company occurred
in almost absolute secrecy and when it was revealed by Gazidis, two years later at a
2014 AGM, it was to a mixed reception. The club’s general performance in the years
since has done little to quell those doubts.
In mitigation, however, Stat DNA’s work was also partly behind the decision not to
extend Emery’s contract in 2019 and, as a further asterisk, it was revealed by The
Athletic that their agency appears to have diminished since Wenger’s departure and
that certain decisions were taken which were not led by their research.
In fact, in a July 2019 interview with Germany magazine 11Freunde, former technical director
Sven Mislintat revealed this to be one of the reasons behind his departure.
“Previously we had a strong systematic approach to transfers, a mixture of watching things
live as well as quality data and video analysis” he said. “However, the new leadership work
more strongly with what they are offered from clubs or agents through their own networks."
A good example of that previous approach would be the signing of Lucas Torreira, in the summer
of 2018. According to reporting by Adam Crafton, Torrerira’s desirability was informed by
data, which – through models employed by the club - revealed similarities with Chelsea
midfielder N’Golo Kante.
But Mislintat’s 2019 remarks speak to the widescale restructuring that has occurred
in the past few years and the lack of clarity that has been its result. Mikel Arteta is
now the head coach and he arrived from Manchester City, another club with a strong analytics
culture. Around him, though, the landscape has changed dramatically since 2011.
Ivan Gazidis left in December 2018 to become the chief executive at AC Milan. Following
his departure, Raul Sanllehi – who had been appointed Head of Football Relations in February
2018 – was promoted to Head of Football. As suggested by Mislintat, it’s also believed
that Sanllehi prefers a more traditional approach to transfer dealing and that, at the point
of Rosenfeld’s departure for his new role, his influence had waned.
The department will still need a leader, though, and Arsenal must move quickly and effectively
to replace Rosenfeld. The club remain at a significant financial disadvantage to clubs
like Manchester City, Manchester United, Chelsea and Liverpool, and without regular Champions
League football since 2016, their income has remained worryingly stagnant.
With the club also struggling under the weight of a vast wage bill, the premium on transfer
market efficiency has arguably never been greater and the outbreak of coronavirus and
the expected effects of the pandemic on football club finances are only expected to exaggerate
that dependency.
The task for Rosenfeld’s successor is not only to excel within the specific job specifications,
but also to fight for the department’s voice and relevance, and to ultimately reclaim an
advantage which hasn’t quite been surrendered, but certainly isn’t being maximised.