We also measure the relationship between the two, the spread analysis.
You know what we measure, silver, weekly or monthly against the price
of gold.
We also do momentum studies of that.
Well, our momentum studies indicate to us that silver actually shifted
to positive after multiple years of degradation between 2011 and 2016,
server lost value, versus gold was not the place to be.
The process what's been going on in gold and silver since well,
actually the 2015 low, the low close and gold monthly close was in
December, two, thousand, fifteen thousand sixty.
So in the next five years, it doubled in price, and if you stand back
and look at it, there was no particular, excuse headline, type of
event. In fact, for instance, the commodity explosion in price.
We've seen really began in late 2020.
That's where most Commodities start up and broke out by our metrics
global commodity index, for example, so you really didn't even have
quote commodity inflation sparking, the goal move, gold knew it was
coming.
I think what gold is fully aware of his one.
It's been money for thousands of years.
So, you know, you could have if you were an alien and dropped onto the
planet Earth, 500 years ago, and ended up in the darkest part of
Africa or in a city.
In Europe, you would have found.
They could they do it?
Gold was okay.
It was almost universally has been Universal central banks, creating
paper that's worthless and not backed by anything, but their promises.
Money units that expand like a river flow.
In fact, since 1959 M2 is going up above double almost every decade in
quantity recently.
It's gone parabolic that's not true with gold nor was both quantity
increases every year, but minuscule, you know, it's hard to find more
of it.
So
It is the alternative that has always been there and it senses.
It's okay.
It's been around 3,000 years.
SPS been around the 70 years.
The central bank's been around just less than 200 years, the Federal
Reserve.
So these things are infantile institutions and metrics, but when they,
since 2009, since the FED went into Q, he's and all the magic they
could come up with.
They put their the floor into the pedal to the floor and kept it
there.
You can get an M2 chart from the Federal Reserve St.
Louis. Just go online.
Check in type, in m, to Federal Reserve St.
Louis also check in and get a Fed funds rate chart.
This is the cost of money is determined by the central bike.
And you'll see over 40 years.
You just staircase down to the point where, you know, it basically
laying at theoretical 04 Dozen Years.
Yes.
That naturally created a situation where investors put that paper
somewhere to work that River flow.
And they happen to choose the stock market in 2009, when the stock
market was in the 600's.
I'm talking SP.
Okay. There was a good argument for.
It was beat off the page in a drop from 1570.
2660 d8 or something.
So, it was cheap was a goodbye.
Okay, can we go with that?
We were bullish, then to, but the
For to extend.
The Dozen Years, parabolically is unheard of.
It is largely created by monetary policy and that monetary policy.
Ultimately can't drive it forever.
We've learned over 100 Years of stock market history that there are
booms and busts largely based on monetary policy when they come undone
because they get priced too high for too long.
Smart money says, okay.
Great.
I'm out.
I'm going to find something else.
I want to move my money to something safe, spigot continues, but by
the central bank, but the investors, don't put it where they want
them.
The FED wants them to put it and we think that's been going on.
Now, since the commodity upturn in late 2020.
We argued that the Commodities, which we've been in a deep hole
between 2016 and 2020 to weird prices when almost any commodity.
You look at was just so low for so long.
It's like a submerge Beach Bowl that, finally investors who say hey
had enough of this one.
I'm going to go to this one.
So they started buying commodity stocks oil stocks.
Fertilizer companies.
You name it?
They've gone parabolic.
It's been a repricing of assets out of the expensive.
High price bubble into the asset categories that are depressed and
have less risk and more reward.
That's the perception and they were right more and more investors are
now making that
Asian, blatantly, but they're doing it.
You can see if you flip on CNBC, and you now have Talking Heads
actually, favoring gold or favoring oil stocks, etcetera, etcetera.
Therefore no matter what the Central Bank does and if they try to
tighten their going to worsen the bubble break the bubble that they
created and is now coming Unwound in phases, not in a crash type mode,
most bear markets and stocks, do not begin with crashes their arm
wrestling match.
Has that goes out 10 15 %, rally 5 down 15, so no crashes.
That's what we've been seeing since December, that same type of arm
wrestling Behavior with teasing rallies in between, but as it becomes
more apparent to investors asset managers and to the FED that all this
thing's Coming Undone, and there are certain other asset categories
adjacent to the stock market, how you'll corporate debts one.
It's one that the FED is outright bought, they bought ETFs.
There were also buyers of Muni.
It's the support state and local governments.
Well, if you look at the charts of such ETFs is that say Hy G + J and
K.
Those are high, you'll corporate debt.
ETS.
Their melting off.
The page fed.
Can't stand that.
Muni Bond mu B is an ETF of Muni bonds.
Take a look at it.
It's been leading the stock market down.
These are asset categories that the central banks cannot allow based
upon their their Assumption of their duties to go into meltdown.
Because they're just going to have to print more money to make state
and local governments function or help Court keep corporations to
going under.
So they're talk about right?
Raising rates.
Look, what gold is done in the face of that.
You would think gold would sell off.
Well, it did in mid June of last year, when they first announced the
determine tapering and a even raising rates you had four distinct
sell-offs in gold from the 1800's down into
1700s.
Most of those sell-offs were redundant mean after you get to sell off
the go right back up and then they sell it again, you know, another
fed spokesman etcetera etcetera and now we're two thousand dollars and
we actually made a new intraday High 2078 the other day set, eight
bucks above the 2011.
I so it got up here despite the fact that the FED doesn't want it up
here once you to buy stocks.
Fight the threat of raising rates on you and therefore fighting
inflation, goal doesn't believe it because I think what it knows is
this and that is that the bubble is breaking the dryer bubble of a
dozen years.
And if that comes Unwound, the central bank will have to totally
reverse policy in some sort of dance, step posture from tapering and
raising rates to oh, we've got to be careful here.
And in fact, we've noticed in a lot of speeches by current.
Governors and exfat Governor's over the last week or so, especially
the word caution has been used.
Meaning, we've got to be cautious about this rate rise.
They were thinking, you know, half percent on the First Rate, rise
coming up next week.
Now, they're saying, oh, no, it's only quarter guaranteed.
They may even regret that and I think gold knows.
Because if these other asset categories descend into into breaking
bubbles,
The central banks will go back to panic mode again, and gold knows
that and knows what that means to monetary policy wise.
And in terms of what the value of Fiat, money is, but gold knows the
ultimate outcome.
It's a Wise Market.
It's looking broadly.
It's not looking at today's headlines.
We think that Advance was silver, went through about 24 and a half is
where our trigger was pulled.
We said, okay the corrections over we're now back in bold mode.
Look at gold first.
If you go back 45 years when gold was legalized in 75, 47 years.
In fact, just before that.
We've always a 20 30 bucks and in with the 200 in 1975, there have
been three major bull markets in Gold that each has created a multiple
of seven to eight fold times, the bear market price, that preceded,
the bull market.
Okay? 7 to 8 volts.
Well, we made a low in 2015 and 1050, something intraday low.
Well, you do the math 7, 8 V, you know, put you up eight thousand
dollars or so, so we have an even match the yet.
The normal logarithm of the ratio scale bull market that gold is
produced three times and last 40 years, but because of the nature of
the events that are going on out there and I don't mean Russia.
I'm talking about the monetary events, the culmination of massive
mispricing with a certain asset category primarily socks.
That when that comes undone, gold will drive much higher than a normal
bowl Market.
We don't know where that's going to be.
I suspect you 8 to 10,000.
That's easy.
That's no big deal, but it could be something well, beyond that
because of the nature of the events that are going on in the other
side of asset categories, as for silver.
We know that.
Historically if you go back again, that 4 plus decades and measure
silver, as a percent of the price of gold.
You'll say that there were four distinct times in that 40 plus years,
where silver price Rose to at least three percent of the price of gold
at that time.
In fact, two of the times what it was six and a half percent of the
price of gold.
Another time.
It was at four percent plus and two other times three percent plus
well silver right now.
Was just below 1.4 percent of the price of gold.
So even if gold just stood still in 2000 and silver said, okay, I'm
going to just exhale and go up to the three percent level.
Again, you know, fifth time in 50 years.
Let's say it be $60.
Just matching the old ratios.
And if God were 8,000, will you do the math?
It's got $100 for soul.
So we measure not just the net trend of gold, and silver and time
their terms, which we now Define as a resumption of the bull Trend,
but we also measure the relationship between the two, the spread
analysis, you know, where we measure, silver weekly, or monthly
against the price of gold.
We also do momentum studies of that.
Well, our momentum studies indicate to us that.
So
Actually shifted to positive after multiple years of degradation
between 2011 and 2016, server lost value, versus gold was not the
place to be.
But in that upturn in 2020, MIT 2020 was sober went from the teens to
thirty dollars in about six weeks, the spread broke out meaning to
that point, silver ratio to Gold turned into a positive zigzag Trent
now,
the last year or so silver has pulled back again in relation to
But it's still in a positive trend.
In other words that pullback is a downturn in an uptrend.
It now that up Fern Has resumed again, just like the net trend of
silver and gold just re-engaged over the last week or two couple weeks
same with gold miners.
The ratio of silver to gold is also turned back to clearly positive.
When we think that, that process of getting up to the normal three percent.
Let's say,
Is it under way again?
So we face?