The American Japanese military alliance has played a crucial role in determining the course
of events along the coastline of the China Seas in the last sixty years.
The USA firmly established itself as the protector of the Pacific region, forcing Bejing to
acknowledge Washington's military supremacy in the area.
But now China's military aspirations are growing and Japan and the US are strengthening their
military co-operation as a precautionary measure.
We ask a leading military analyst in Japan what lies behind China's strategy.
"I would refer mainly to the problem of Taiwan.
China seeks to inhibit the autonomy and independence of Taiwan using its air force and navy. In
addition China wants to safeguard its access to military resources.
Chinese officials aspire to establish their nation as the stabilising power in the Far
East. But this threatens US supremacy in the region. Bejing's military build up could spell
the end to this."
With three and a half million soldiers China has the largest army in the world, numerically
more than twice the size of that of the USA. Thanks to an upturn in its economy, China
will also be able to increase its military spending over the next few years.
The Chinese navy intends to build five Jin class atomic submarines. They are to be armed
with modern nuclear intercontinental missiles, which will also be capable of hitting the
USA. Once China installs this system at sea and on land, it will be able to respond to
a nuclear attack.
Chinese military experts themselves admit that this Jin submarine will considerably
alter the balance of nuclear power.
"The Chinese have a desperate craving for
nuclear power. China should never be occupied again. In addition, re-unification with Taiwan
is our paramount objective. During the last decades, American and Japanese armed forces
have been operating close to Chinese provinces. Militarily speaking, this has put considerable
heat on Bejing."
Washington feels that this rearmament is directed at it. China is increasingly seen as a potential
military rival. Therefore it must be discouraged, says the military analyst Michael Green.
"I don't think were panicked, there is not deep anxiety, but its worth watching, and something to be focused on.
And with good reason. The USA has global security obligations
some heavily expensive military operations in Iraq and Afghanistan. What we do not want
to happen is the Chinese developing the military capabilities and a change in the balance of power locally in North East Asia.
And also with their nuclear weapons, so that the PLA could one day
go into some Chinese leader and say "we believe we can hit Taiwan with missiles to punish them...
or we believe we can use military force against a neighbour like India.""
Strategic surveillance from space is becoming increasingly relevant militarily. Control
of troop movements and crisis areas through satellites, radar, computers and sensors are
progressively becoming major factors in the military arena.
China is fast catching up. Since the beginning of the year Bejing has developed its own groundbreaking
satellite technology. In theory it is finally in a situation where it can monitor
American observation satellites.
European peace campaigners insist that negotiations must start in order to set limits on the spiral
of rearmament in the Far East
"It is generally known that right now, the Americans are more or less against everything
when it comes to arms control. That is nothing new.
I think, for the last 15 years, China has pushed for the banning of anti-satellite weapons
in space. This can only be achieved through an international treaty.
But the Americans didn't even respond to that. They didn't even think about it.
Then in January, the Chinese launched a weather satellite, which is basically a satellite
test but they keep it a secret. Which is a terrible situation as this huge piece of metal
is just floating in space.
But you can also say that it is nudge aimed towards the West, because
I mean that we are also dependant on mobile phones and communication mediums, which we
use the satellites for. That is a hint in order to say 'hey guys we need to work something
out here."
Taiwan has the potential of becoming a global hot spot. Around 1000 Chinese missiles threaten
this island. As far as the regime in Bejing is concerned, Taiwan is an integral province
of their country and the dispute over the island is a domestic political issue.
Way back in 2005, a high ranking Chinese general had already warned that a conflict with America
could not be excluded, should Washington intervene in the event of a Chinese occupation of Taiwan.
"The most preperation for the PLA today, I think is still focused on the Coast
across to Taiwan island. I think this is a core issue for China and the PLA,
and is the most important task for the PLA to keep the unification of the country"
In Japan, Prime Minister Abe is keeping a wary eye on the question of Taiwan and the
rearmament of China. Tokyo responded politically to the dilemma.
The government adopted new defence directives in which for the first time China and North
Korea were specifically identified as threats. Together with the USA, Japan is investing
millions in the construction of a missile defence shield.
The rearmament of Japan is only a matter of time. Even the matter of nuclear arms procurement
is now being discussed. Japan has the technical know how to develop warheads and carrier systems.
Until now Tokyo had been keen to concentrate on the security policy for the region.
"Japan would like to be prepared in the event that the American defence shield would not
suffice to protect us any more. The USA however would not keep any nuclear weapons there.
In addition, as a small island state, Japan would not have any substantial advantages
if it were to possess nuclear arms since a large section of the country could easily
be destroyed in retaliation. Japan would thus make itself the prime target of other countries.
Our security would be severely jeopardised."
However, China is set on strengthening its nuclear weapons, in order to adjust obvious
weaknesses with its conventional armed forces. Chinese military strategists are concerned
about its nuclear armaments. China owns an estimated 400 nuclear warheads, a mere fraction
when compared to those controlled by the US.
"It is very alarming to note that the Chinese are increasing their military capability in
order to attack Taiwan, and their military ability to threaten the US or Japan, should we
in some way get involved, and all of that creates new capabilities, new scenarios
for which the US and China do not have new ways of doing business. President Bush and Hu Jintao have
a very good relationship, and manage our bi-lateral relationship at a political level very well,
but if we had an actual crisis, we don't have the understanding or transparency with China, or the crisis
management experience with China that we developed with the Soviet Union.
Till now, military manoeuvres in China did not particularly alarm the Western world.
Now though, Bejing seems to be set on an arms race that will be very difficult to stop.
Unlike Europe, in the Far East, there are no arms control mechanisms, nor alliance networks
with which peace can be secured.