In two or three months from now, is it possible that under the orders of Vladimir Putin, some
of the top generals in the Russian army will be taken to the side and filled with bullets
courtesy of a Putin- enlisted firing squad?
Is mutiny within the Russian ranks on the way?
Is Putin even thinking about using a tactical nuke, in his home country, no less?
This might sound utterly fantastical, but that’s what some of the US media was saying
recently.
Is there any truth to it, or is Russia playing some kind of mind game?
The battlefield is one thing, but there’s also a war of propaganda wrapped around the
bloody conflict in Ukraine, with all sides showing themselves to be adept at constructing
narratives from a palette of truths, half-truths, and outright lies.
You have to admit, mutiny, executions of top generals, and nuclear strikes aren’t exactly
small stories, but are they tall stories?
The reason we are talking about this is because of Yevgeny Prigozhin, a rich Russian oligarch,
a mercenary, and at times a misinformation maverick.
He’s the guy talking about mutiny and firing squads and nuclear weapons use.
Prigozhin is reportedly the chief farmer of Russia’s infamous troll farms that have
assiduously worked to plant narratives Russia hopes will grow into people’s beliefs, especially
American people.
This is partly why it might be better to treat what he says with a pinch of salt.
Then again, maybe Prigozhin has just cracked up under all that stress of fighting, and
maybe he’s such a maverick that he doesn’t mind dissing the commander-in-chief, Mr. Putin.
He does, after all, have quite a colorful past, which might encourage a person to believe
that Prigozhin just doesn’t give a damn.
Maybe he will state the truth, regardless of what Putin thinks about it.
We need to know more about him and his relationship with Putin before we consider the truthfulness
of his words.
In 1981, when Prigozhin was just 20, he was arrested and charged with a litany of crimes,
including burglary, panhandling, prostitution, gambling, and the nasty-sounding crime of
using minors to live “parasitically.”
He was a drunk, a wayward kid from the wrong side of the tracks, who, after spending nine
years behind bars, ended up selling hotdogs with his mother and stepfather at the local
flea market in Leningrad.
The boy did well, and as the years passed, he got involved in the grocery store business
with a school friend.
The two then opened “The Old Customs House,” what was said to be St. Petersburg's first
elite restaurant.
They then spent $400,000, a lot of money in the 90s, to covert and remodel an old ship,
creating another fancy restaurant, this one called “New Island.”
Prigozhin is obviously a bit ashamed of his criminal past.
News reports show that he’s filed 15 different lawsuits against Yandex, a search engine mainly
used in Russia, in an attempt to rub his name off the internet under the “right to be
forgotten” laws.
On a summer’s day in 2001, he met someone who would change his life.
President Vladimir Putin walked into his New Island restaurant with the then French President
Jacques Chirac.
A year later, Putin dined on that transformed ship with none other than US President George
W. Bush.
Putin even had a birthday party there.
He and Prigozhin became close.
Much later, Prigozhin led a catering contract worth over a billion dollars to feed Putin’s
soldiers.
Later, Prigozhin became the head of Russia’s infamous “Internet Research Agency,” an
outfit that is basically a troll farm, writing stories that Russia hopes will turn into full-blown
narratives, planting seeds Russia hopes will create disharmony and disunity in the USA.
We’re not going to do a full bio here, so let’s just say that Putin was mightily impressed
with Prigozhin’s life story and attendant successes, and the two hit it off.
They became as thick as thieves.
It was a match made in heaven… or hell, depending on where you stand.
Just keep this in mind as you watch the rest of this video.
Are these two good friends now virtual enemies?
Is Prigozhin sincere when he says what he says about everything going wrong in Ukraine?
Most people have heard of Prigozhin not because Western presidents once wolfed down expensive
wine and foie gras at his maritime-themed restaurant, but because he leads Putin’s
private army, the Wagner Group.
This is not part of the giant Russian army, although it receives equipment from the Russian
Ministry of Defense.
The group doesn’t just provide mercenaries, it works with Russia's military intelligence
agency too.
It’s incredibly useful for Putin, not just on the battlefield.
It has its long fingers in a lot of pies.
In the words of Russia’s Main Intelligence Directorate (GRU) former Chief of Staff Nikolay
Makarov, such formidable and dangerous private military companies can be used “for delicate
missions abroad.”
Wagner is one of a few such mercenary companies that have been involved in conflicts around
the world in the name of defending Mother Russia.
In 2018, it was discovered that the Wagner Group shared a facility with the 10th Separate
Special Purpose Brigade of Russia’s GRU, located in Molkino, in Russia’s Krasnodar
district.
The Wagner Group is a lot more than hired mercenaries and released convicts who can
shoot a gun, even though the reported 50,000 soldiers on its payroll are certainly useful
in that regard.
So, we know Prigozhin and Putin are very close.
The level of trust Putin awards him is as high as it gets.
There is a lot we don’t know about the Wagner Group, but we know enough to understand it’s
very important.
That’s why it can be hard to believe that not long ago, Prigozhin said in a video that
he expects in two to three months, there’s a chance that Russia will suffer losses and
some of Russia’s leading generals will be given the firing-squad treatment.
As we said, he also talked about Putin using a nuke.
We’ll come back to the nuke talk later.
For now let’s focus on Prigozhin’s most notable battle in Ukraine, the Battle of Bakhmut.
This eastern Ukrainian town was home to what’s been called the longest and bloodiest fight
in Russia's war on Ukraine so far.
The place has been flattened.
Its landscape has been turned into a scene perfect for a Hollywood dystopian movie.
Bakhmut is the depressing result of a war of attrition, the kind of war some people
believe suits Russia, yet others say it will bring Russia’s doom.
Depending on which analyst you’re reading, you might hear that Bakhmut was a trap set
by either Ukraine or Russia, to weaken the other side.
Pro-Ukrainian pundits of this war will say Russian combat power was reduced in Bakhmut;
all the while, Ukraine was just waiting for Western weapons to arrive.
In this case, Ukraine set the trap.
But you could also make the case for Russia holding out until Ukraine’s forces were
severely weakened.
At the same time, Russia preserved its natural army and let the mercenaries do all the work.
Russia lost a lot of convicts, which was no big loss.
The question is, which side actually lost in this battle?
Whose resources were dangerously depleted while the other side went about strengthening
other facets of its forces, ready for an all-out attack later?
Was the so-called pit of death of Bakhmut as “strategically insignificant,” as many
media outlets portrayed it?
First, it’s doubtful that Bakhmut was as strategically insignificant as was made out.
Otherwise, it wouldn’t have been fought over the way it was.
It was reported that for Ukraine, Bakhmut provided a “unique opportunity to kill a
lot of Russians” and weaken Russia’s forces, but for Russia, the fighting was purely symbolic.
In this case, it was a huge mistake for Russia, but that’s only one way of looking at it.
It’s hard to believe that maybe 20 or 30,000 Russian men have died because Mr. Putin is
afraid of a symbolic loss.
Then again, many of the men fighting were convicts, which makes them expendable in the
eyes of Putin.
Reports state that Ukraine also lost big, although again, different sources paint vastly
different pictures.
Some sources say way less than Russia; others say just as many Ukrainian soldiers died.
Ukraine certainly put a lot of men there.
It’s thought in total, Bakhmut saw 37 Ukrainian brigades, 2 regiments, and 18 battalions.
Would Ukraine have sacrificed so many men, some think 20 to 30,000, just like Russia,
as a way to wait for weapons?
In one of his rants, Prigozhin said that Wagner had lost 20,000 men in Bakhmut, but he also
said that 50,000 Ukrainians had been killed in action.
This was after his famous rant when he threatened to pull his men out of Bakhmut unless they
received more support from Russia.
Later, he extolled what he said was Ukraine’s “high level of organizational skills, a
high level of training, a high level of intelligence.”
He added, “They have different types of weapons and, what is most important, they
can easily and successfully work with all systems -- Soviet, NATO systems, you name
it.”
He was basically telling the world that his enemy was superior.
In fact, he’s blasted Putin and other Russian military big-wigs so much that there’s talk
that he’s trying to get the people behind him so he can make a play to replace Putin.
His men have videoed him with their phones, showing him enlisting prisoners to fight or
proudly walking through corpse-filled streets in Bakhmut, looking like a fearless soldier.
Was this just propaganda to get the Russian people on his side so he might oust Putin?
If so, why didn’t Putin just have him killed?
Not only that, he’s criticized high-ranking officials in Russia for corruption, saying
such men swan around in Dubai as their children avoid the draft and good men die on the battlefield.
Analysts are calling this the “Prigozhin brand.”
One of his latest comments was, “We are at such a point that we could BLEEPING lose
Russia - that is the main problem....
We need to impose martial law,” he said.
He concluded his rant by saying that the "scenario for us will not be good, and that is why we
need to get ready for an arduous war.”
It’s hard to know what to believe.
The New Yorker interviewed Ukranian men on the frontline in Bakhmut who said they were
totally outgunned.
Some reports show that Russia had superiority in artillery.
In February, a former US Marine who was in Bakhmut said that men on the frontline had
a life expectancy of just a “few hours.”
It’s very likely that both sides suffered a similar number of casualties, although most
of Russia’s casualties were those former prisoners.
Nonetheless, just the other day, a soldier from Ukraine's third assault brigade said
the Russians had been pushed back.
Still, he said Ukraine is still using Soviet-era weapons that date back to when his parents
were his age.
More weapons and Russia could again be pushed out, he said.
Prigozhin opened his mouth again the other day and said some things that could be construed
as shocking.
He said the Russian army, the men that had arrived in Bakhmut after his Wagner men had
secured the city, were suffering heavy losses.
He explained, “Now part of the settlement of Berkhivka has already been lost, the troops
are quietly running away.
Disgrace!”
Berkhivka, which is located about two miles northwest of Bakhmut, was taken by Wagner
in February.
Prigozhin was furious that the Russian army lost it.
All that hard work for nothing!
So, he believed the Russian army was much weaker than his mercenaries, and he let it
be known.
He went further than that, saying, “The Ministry of Defense’s main goal is to pretend
that everything is ok and that we are advancing.
In reality, what is happening now ... will result in significant tactical defeats in
two weeks' time.”
Time and again, Prigozhin has criticized Russia’s Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, as well as
throwing fire at the country’s chief of the general staff, Valery Gerasimov.
If things couldn’t get any crazier, in June, Prigozhin’s mercenaries captured the Russian
commander of the 72nd Brigade, Lt Col Roman Venevitin.
They interrogated him, with the camera switched on, of course, and made him admit that he’d
been drunk on the job and had ordered his troops to fire on Wagner men in a convoy as
they were leaving Bakhmut.
Venevitin admitted that he didn’t much like the Wagner guys, and then he issued an apology.
Prigozhin, who we’ll remember is a master of misinformation, said he’d found bombs
that the Russian defense ministry had planted, bombs that were intended to blow him up.
In what sounds like a movie called “Laurel and Hardy Go To War,” or maybe “Carry
On Ukraine,” Prigozhin then said that the Wagner Group would not sign any more contracts
with Russia’s forces.
It was like a playground fight, all on video for the world to see, which made Putin’s
Russia seem imbecilic.
It looked like Russia’s war effort was falling apart from the inside, with Prigozhin gladly
airing Russia’s dirty laundry in public.
Then it got even more ridiculous.
Prigozhin called the generals “smelly scumbags,” which would be funny if it weren’t for the
fact that thousands of men are dying and Ukrainians are seeing their towns turned to rubble.
He then screamed, “Shoigu, Gerasimov, I urge you to come to the front, raise your
pistols at your men to make them go forward.
Come on, you can!”
Putin, meanwhile, doesn’t seem concerned about this.
But why?
You’d think he’d be furious and have his good friend Prigozhin torn to pieces by a
firing squad, something he could do quite easily.
One analyst believes the reason Putin lets the mud fly is to keep “the army on its
toes.”
He added, “The presence of Prigozhin's media persona not only receives acceptance but is
even encouraged.”
Still, the Western press says that, for the most part, Prigozhin’s meltdowns are a sign
that Moscow’s war machine is in tatters, on the verge of a breakdown.
CNN said this is great news for Ukraine as the country moves along, if slowly, with its
offensive.
A CNN reporter said gleefully, “If Prigozhin didn’t exist, I think the Ukrainians would
have wanted to make him up.”
Then again, is CNN seeing the bigger picture here?
Are we being advertised a narrative?
Is Russia really that cartoonishly incompetent?
Or, has this narrative actually been made up by people who excel in doing such things?
On the face of it, there does indeed look like there’s been a total breakdown of order.
In one of his latest videos posted on the Telegram app, Prigozhin said Moscow will “execute’
top generals for losing Ukrainian territory.”
He explained, “I think we are two or three months away from the firing squad.”
Meaning, after Ukraine mows through Russia’s forces like a hot knife through columns of
butter.
Prigozhin went as far as to say that Russia might use nuclear weapons in Belgorod, a border
town where there are pro-Ukrainian Russian volunteer units.
This would mean Putin nuking his own country, upsetting the international community, and
possibly starting a nuclear war.
It would at least meet the criteria for escalation.
CNN suggested he’d do it and use it as a false flag.
The question is, why?
CNN didn’t bother with that part…It would make zero sense and would be extremely dangerous.
CNN might not be the best place to look for detailed, intelligent analysis, but we thought
we’d tell you what’s been said, anyway.
If some of you think Prigozhin’s latest rants sound like theater, you wouldn’t be
alone.
We don’t imagine US intelligence watched that video with any amount of concern or interest,
certainly not enough interest to make any strategic decisions over.
Nonetheless, you have to ask the question, is this close friend of Putin, a trusted ally,
really vying to get the Russian people on his side and perhaps replace Putin?
After all, the videos look real to Russians, too.
Has Prigozhin really lost the plot?
Is there so much disunity and chaos on the frontline that Ukraine will walk right through
this next offensive?
If Prigozhin is telling the truth, that should happen, but are things really as bad as he
makes out?
The answer, according to some analysts, is that it definitely won’t happen like that.
Ukraine won’t just walk right through Russia’s troops with ease while their leaders squabble
like children.
Many of those people think this will be a protracted war of attrition.
Some of them believe Russia is in a better position to win a war of attrition since it
has more soldiers, especially after Ukraine lost many of its soldiers fighting in Bakhmut.
Others say Ukraine is better suited to a war of attrition, but no one is walking through
anyone.
You have to ask, then, what the hell is Prigozhin up to?
Some pundits have said his ranting is related to the Russian expression “maskirovka.”
This literally means mask or masking, but in the military and strategic sense, we can
say it’s all about confusing the enemy and its supporters.
An analyst explained, “It’s a public spectacle to shape the perception of those external
actors watching.”
After all, while Prigozhin might look dumb, life is not a Hollywood movie.
He’s obviously very smart, and he obviously has a background in psychological operations.
Russia pretending its army is in disarray is not exactly a genius bit of misdirection.
Still, it seems some people believe it – much of the Western media has ran with this narrative,
reporting it to make Ukraine look like it’s on the verge of winning the conflict.
In short, Prigozhin might be orchestrating an exaggerated disarray that Putin wants Ukraine
and the West to believe because believing your enemy is weak when it’s not is a powerful
thing in a war.
The Western media might be selling the disarray as real, so people believe the war is almost
won when it certainly isn’t.
It’s very hard to discern what is real in this war, and anyone who says they know exactly
what the truth is would be lying.
Just recently, the Kakhovka dam in the Kherson region was blown up, a dam already in the
hands of the Russians.
This is a new kind of threat to Ukrainian civilians.
Tens of thousands of people had to be evacuated while flooding destroys not just houses but
agriculture.
It’s a terrible thing to happen to the Ukrainian people, with the whole event being called
“ecoside.”
It makes Russia look really bad.
But who did it?
The same question we asked about the Nordstream II pipeline, and we got different answers,
with accusations being thrown around depending on what media and, more importantly, which
genuine experts you read.
Ukrainian security forces said they had proof, a phone call they’d intercepted, which suggested
the Russians blew up the damn.
A spokesperson said, “The invaders wanted to blackmail Ukraine by blowing up the dam
and staged a man-made disaster in the south of our country.”
Poland came right out and said blowing up that dam should result in more sanctions against
Russia.
The US just said it's “constantly monitoring” the situation.
Russia has denied it, of course.
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said the attack was “planned and carried out by order
received from Kyiv, from the Kyiv regime,” with the aim to “deprive Crimea of water”
and to distract from what’s happening on the battlefield.
There’s a video that has been making the rounds of social media that shows a Ukrainian
blogger talking to an alleged Russian soldier, with the soldier saying the Russian army mined
the Kakhovka dam, although the evidence is weak.
There’s no proof the guy is even a soldier.
Some have said he’s actually a Ukrainian impersonator named Yehor.
Then you have the other side of the tale.
In December 2022, The Washington Post published an article in which a Ukrainian commander
talks about blowing up dams.
The Post wrote: “The Ukrainians, he said, even conducted
a test strike with a HIMARS launcher on one of the floodgates at the Nova Kakhovka dam,
making three holes in the metal to see if the Dnieper’s water could be raised enough
to stymie Russian crossings but not flood nearby villages.
The test was a success, Kovalchuk said, but the step remained a last resort.”
You have to ask which side the blowing up of the dam serves the most.
The answer is very likely the side that did it, despite what else you might hear.
It’s very possible that Prigozhin’s prediction of the imminent collapse of Russian forces
and subsequent executions of generals by firing squad, or even that nuclear attack, won’t
come true.
If it happens, we’ll be shocked.
Prigozhin and Putin might just be playing games here.
It seems Ukraine has certainly advanced in its offensive – we’ve seen videos of flags
being raised in different liberated towns and villages across the front– but these
successes, at least when we started making this video, have been small.
The day we started making this video, Putin said Ukraine’s offensive is a failure, telling
a bunch of war correspondents that Ukraine had suffered “catastrophic” losses.
Meanwhile, Ukraine said it had just killed 680 Russian soldiers and taken out eight tanks
and an air defense system.
Putin then had his shot at the narrative and said, “They (Ukraine) lost over 160 (tanks),
we lost 54 tanks, and some of them are subject to restoration and repair.”
He said since June 4, Ukraine had lost ten times more soldiers than Russia had.
And back and forth the story goes on like this, with the narrative changing shape like
10,000 birds in a giant murmuration,
while the soundtrack in the background is Prigozhin, as mad as a hatter, either away
with the fairies, actually angry, or just playing his part in his misinformation operation
as Putin smiles in his Moscow office.
Right now, it’s too early to tell with any confidence what’s true and not true when
it comes to many matters involving Ukraine.
It’s likely this war will go on for a long time to come, and everything we hear needs
to be scrutinized.
The truth is out there, but it’s never delivered to us in bite-sized parcels that make everything
seem very simple.
Read the news like you’re trying to complete a difficult puzzle, reading into angles and
counter-angles as if you’re playing chess with a grandmaster because things are rarely
as simple as they are reported.
Now you need to watch “Why Russia Will Run Out of Soldiers Before Ukraine.”
Or, watch “Real Reason Why Nazi Officers Fled to Argentina After WW2.”