T-72 tanks speed toward Kyiv. Russian Troops fire on resistance fighters and civilians
alike. Special forces soldiers drop behind Ukrainian lines. In the early days of the
war between Russia and Ukraine, it looked like Russia was going to win. Putin had everything
going for him. But almost a year later, his invasion will go down in history as one of
the biggest military failures ever. What went wrong? Incompetence, miscommunication, and drugs.
On February 21, 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that the Luhansk and Donetsk
regions of Ukraine were independent states that wanted to succeed from the rest of the country
and become a part of Russia. This declaration was not accepted by most nations around the world,
including Ukraine. But Putin didn’t care; this would be the first step towards his
invasion of Ukraine. Putin claimed that in order to keep peace in the region,
he needed to send Russian troops into these parts of Ukraine. In reality,
he was just moving his troops into position for what was to come.
Putin claimed that the people of Luhansk and Donetsk mostly identified as Russian and,
therefore, wanted to be reincorporated into the motherland. Later, rigged elections would
be held where citizens were held at gunpoint as they voted to separate from Ukraine and be
enveloped by Putin’s Russian Empire. What is important in this series of events is
that Vladamir Putin created a narrative that suggested most Ukrainians desired reintegration
as they longed for the good old days of the Soviet Union. This, of course, was not true.
By creating this false narrative, Putin hoped it would eventually come true. And
looking back at the decisions made next, the mad dictator may have actually believed his
own lie. We know that Putin is a lunatic, but there are some very real reasons he
may have believed Russia could just roll into Ukraine, seize the capital,
oust the current government, and then the people would welcome him with open arms.
The first reason he probably believed this was because Putin has surrounded
himself with allies and friends who will tell him exactly what he wants to
hear. If Putin had confided in his inner circle that he wanted to invade Ukraine,
every one of them would tell him that not only was it possible, but that the Ukrainians would
welcome the opportunity to be brought back into the Russian Federation. Military generals and
those outside of Putin’s immediate network warned him that capturing Ukraine would be more difficult
than he anticipated and would require a lot of planning, but this is not who Putin listened to.
Another more surprising reason that Putin thought the war would go his way is that
a recent statement from Danish intelligence suggests the Russian President may have been
on drugs when the initial invasion was planned out. One Danish official released an anonymous
statement claiming Vladamir Putin might be taking hormones to treat thyroid cancer, which could have
altered his mental state. In particular, this analyst suggested that the hormone therapy could
have given Putin “delusions of grandeur,” which is one of the known side effects of such a treatment.
If this is true, the decision to invade Ukraine could have been driven by a drug-induced fantasy.
That being said, the past actions of Vladamir Putin indicate that he wouldn’t need to be on
drugs to invade a neighbor. The dictator likely wanted to incorporate Ukraine into
Russian borders to expand his power and build on his vision of a new Russian Empire. However,
if Putin was on drugs, it probably didn’t help.
On paper, the Russian military is massive and has some of the most advanced weapons in the world.
And although some of this is true, being powerful on paper is not the same as being powerful in real
life. If we were just going by statistics, Russia would have crushed Ukrainian forces in the early
days of the war. And during the initial attack, it looked like that was what was going to happen.
When Putin sent troops to Luhansk and Donetsk, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy
urged everyone to stay calm. He believed that the Ukrainian people could resist
the egregious actions of Vladamir Putin. Zelenskyy also probably believed that NATO
would step in and aid Ukraine. However, western nations remained stand-offish,
which only bolstered Russia’s belief that Ukraine would be an easy target.
On February 22, the Russian parliament authorized Putin to use military force outside of the
country. This decision was just a formality as Putin and his allies control the parliament,
so whatever he wants, he gets. When this happened, many NATO nations placed economic sanctions on
Russia. However, Putin’s invasion plan was based around his military seizing Kyiv,
dismantling the Ukrainian government, and incorporating the region back into Russia,
all in a matter of days. Therefore, the sanctions weren’t a big cause for concern.
On February 24, the invasion began. President Zelenskyy ordered a general mobilization of
the Ukrainian population, urging any citizen willing to fight for their country to come
forward. Contrary to what Vladamir Putin believed about the Ukrainian people, most of the population
was willing to fight for their independence. When the invasion started, the Ukrainian people took up
arms, joined the military, and began resisting the Russian onslaught flooding across their borders.
However, over the next few days, it seemed that Russia would quickly win the war,
and all hope would be lost. Russia had more troops, vehicles, aircraft,
and missiles than Ukraine could ever hope to amass. The Ukrainians were out-manned, outgunned,
and it seemed they would be receiving little to no support from NATO. It was these factors that
almost led to their defeat in the initial days of the invasion. But as we now know,
Ukraine would not give up without a fight, and against all odds, they would accomplish several
objectives that would keep Russia from winning the war in the early days of the invasion.
As the world watched on in horror, Russian forces roared through Belarus toward Kyiv.
This was Russia’s main target, and rightfully so. If Kyiv fell and the Ukrainian government
was forced to flee, there is a good chance the war could have ended right there and then,
with Russia putting a pro-Putin puppet in control of Ukraine.
This is why things looked grim as Russian soldiers moved closer and closer to Kyiv.
At the same time, Russian forces were also pushing into southern Ukraine through Crimea,
which it had annexed in 2014, and from across the Russian border to the southeast.
The initial success of these forces was not nearly as vital as the battles in the north.
The only way that Russia would quickly win the war was through dismantling the Ukrainian government
via the capture of Kyiv. Putin’s initial plan may have included his southern forces eventually
meeting up with Russian forces in the north, but they never got that far. Although, unless the
southern battalions were able to plow through the middle of Ukraine, this would have taken too long.
The only way the war could have ended quickly was if Putin’s northern invasion force succeeded.
Russian vehicles shot down the west bank of the Dnipro River to cut off any escape
to the west. Another force traveled down the opposite bank of the Dnipro to meet up with
Russian forces closing in from the east. The initial invasion forces steamrolled through
any resistance they came across until they approached Kyiv. Russian tanks and soldiers
moving along the Dnipro were ordered to surround the capital. If they had been
successful in doing this, the war would likely have ended right then and there.
However, the Russian forces coming from the north never completed this
objective. Putin’s invasion plan hinged on his men taking Kyiv within the first
week or two. And as the days progressed without word of victory, Putin must have
felt a sinking feeling in his stomach. The Ukrainian people did not welcome his forces,
his invasion was not moving quickly across the landscape, and the Ukrainian military was
putting up a fight on a scale that Russian intelligence had promised wouldn’t happen.
But even with all of these things going wrong, Russia still had a chance to win
the war. During the initial attack, Russia still had a massive amount of
tanks and artillery that were making their way toward Kyiv. The mechanized ground assault was
supposed to be complemented by paratroopers dropping into the capital to wreak havoc
from within. However, like many of the defeats Russia suffered during the war,
the failure to capture Kyiv was partially the fault of miscommunication and incompetence.
Communication between the different ground units broke down not because of technical
difficulties but because of how the Russian military is set up. Each force was given a
set of objectives but was not provided with a contingency plan if they met resistance. The
Russian military is set up to hit a target hard with a lot of firepower and then dig
in and hold the line. This tactic doesn’t really work if your objective is to push
across a country to seize a capital that lies hundreds of miles away.
As Russian tanks and vehicles tried to reach Kyiv, they met opposition almost
immediately. This slowed their progress, and the miscommunication among military leaders,
the government, and Russian soldiers led to confusion, resulting in entire battalions being
incapacitated or finding themselves out of position. If there had been clear
orders on how to deal with the unexpected resistance, Russian troops might have been
able to circumnavigate the Ukrainian forces while continuing to push toward the capital.
However, outdated tactics led to many tanks, infantry, and artillery units being bogged
down in skirmishes that slowed their advance and allowed the Ukrainian military to more effectively
protect their capital. Even at this point, it was still possible for Russia to win the war if they
reached Kyiv. However, one other key component of their invasion needed to fall into place first.
The Russian military was not designed to stray too far from supply lines. The machinery and tactics
it uses require constant resupplying, which is why railroads and supply chains feature prominently
in Russian war tactics. If Putin’s forces had been able to secure supply routes leading from
Russia to Kyiv, it’s possible that Russian artillery and tanks could have bombarded the
city while soldiers infiltrated deeper into the capital to force Ukraine to surrender.
In order to do this, they needed to take two major airfields, Antonov Airport and Vasylkiv Air Base,
both of which were just outside of Kyiv. When Russian forces attacked the two airfields,
they were greeted by heavy resistance. This slowed their advance even more than
it already had been. When Kyiv wasn’t taken within the first two weeks of the invasion,
Putin must have known he was in trouble. However, it didn’t seem to matter enough for him to change
tactics. The way Russia almost won the war was by having a much larger military, reaching the
outskirts of Kyiv to the north, while also being able to resupply this rapidly advancing force.
By all accounts, Russian troops and armor should have been able to push all the way into Kyiv and
seize the capital if the invasion had been planned correctly. Yes, Putin was working
off of bad intelligence, but the sheer size of the Russian military should have been able
to crush any resistance that the much smaller Ukrainian military could muster. To put this into
perspective, Russia had a military convoy that was 40 miles long headed toward Kyiv. Think about how
many men and supplies Russia had at its disposal to create a convoy that stretched that far.
In the first week of March, everything seemed to come to a screeching halt for Russia. And this
was when Putin went from almost winning the war to barreling toward defeat. The Ukrainian
military stopped almost every Russian battalion in the north. Putin and his advisors had planned
on pushing through any defenses and securing the capital within days of the initial invasion. Now
it looked as if their forces would never be able to surround the city. At this point, the order
was given to start indiscriminately bombarding key locations with artillery, regardless of the
cost to human life. This is a favorite terror tactic that Russia has used time and time again.
In fact, this was what the Russian military was designed to do: entrench itself in a location
and lay siege to enemy forces. However, that particular tactic cannot be used to quickly
overwhelm and enemy and take their capital. It’s this switch in tactic that signaled
Russia would no longer be able to win the war in the early weeks of the conflict. This was
also when Putin and the rest of the world realized that Russia had made some really
big mistakes and that their chances of ever taking Kyiv were becoming smaller and smaller.
So, what happened? How did Russia go from almost winning the war
within days to now losing the conflict altogether?
A lot of mistakes were made by Putin and the Russian military throughout the war,
but we’re going to focus on some key blunders that specifically prevented Russia from taking
Kyiv and claiming victory in the early days of the invasion. As mentioned before,
Putin was given bad intel about the happiness of Ukrainians and their
willingness to put up a fight. This faulty information can be traced back to the FSB.
The FSB is Russia’s intelligence agency. Documents that were leaked to British intelligence suggested
that Putin had been planning an invasion of Ukraine for some time. Leading up to the war,
FSB agents were tasked with collecting data on the general attitude of the Ukrainian people.
They reported that the general public was unhappy with the current leadership in Ukraine
and pessimistic about the direction in which the country was going. This intel was wrong,
but it led Putin to believe that the Ukrainian people wouldn’t resist his forces,
which almost certainly played a role in his decision to invade Ukraine when he did.
In reality, the Ukrainian people were overall okay with the country's direction
and the government. Not knowing this, Putin expected his forces to reach Kiyv in 48 hours
and capture the capital not too long after. In fact, winning the war hinged on this happening,
which wasn’t a problem when Putin believed he could just roll right into Kyiv and take over the
capital. This isn’t the best mindset to have when going to war as a leader should be prepared for
the unexpected. But Putin had ideas of grandeur and thought nothing could stand in his way.
Russian forces were ordered to go all in. Working off bad intel,
it was decided that tanks, artillery, and troops were pretty much all that
was needed to secure the Ukrainian capital. Paratroopers were often deployed in isolation,
which is rarely a good tactic as they have no support if things go bad. And for many Russian
units in northern Ukraine, things went really bad. Isolating units rather than
using a strategic approach with support from different military branches is one
of the main reasons Russia sustained such heavy losses during the initial invasion.
Similarly, reconnaissance missions by drones or aircraft were almost nonexistent. This
meant Russian battalions had no warning about what they were heading into. This
led to Russian convoys being caught off guard by Ukrainian surprise attacks that could have been
prevented if the different branches of the Russian military had worked together. It’s hypothesized
that the reason Putin went all in with his armor and troops rather than using missiles,
drones, and aircraft to dismantle enemy defenses ahead of time is that
he did not see the Ukrainian military as a threat based on what the FSB had told him.
It’s likely that President Putin was warned ahead of time by some of his
military advisors that Russia should be prepared for Ukraine to put up a fight,
but he didn’t want to hear it. Vladimir Putin and his closest allies are hesitant to give
up any sort of control, which is one of the biggest reasons that Russia wasn’t
able to take Kyiv in the beginning days of the war. Corruption runs deep in Russia,
and no one wants to get caught on the bad side of the Kremlin for obvious reasons. Therefore,
saying or doing anything contradictory to what Putin and his close allies think can be dangerous.
As Russian forces started to encounter heavy resistance, the real magnitude of the problem
was never relayed back to the Kremlin. Russian forces continued to try and push through toward
Kyiv even though they desperately needed reinforcements. It’s unclear where the
exact breakdown in communication occurred, but it’s probable that even as Russian troops
realized they were in big trouble, the Kremlin thought everything was going according to plan.
Field generals may have tried to find solutions to get around Ukrainian resistance but could
not do so without further support. And since there was little to no communication happening,
Putin needed to go digging for answers when his forces had not captured Kyiv after the
first few days of the invasion. Russian troops were probably crying for help,
which never reached the Kremlin as military leaders tried to salvage the
situation. Without the proper information, Russia’s tactics were never changed,
and extra support was never sent to the troops taking heavy casualties on the front lines.
By the time Putin realized how bad things were, it was too late. He needed to spin the
situation to make it look like everything was going according to plan. When Russia
started to pivot towards providing the ground forces with more support,
they found that the Ukrainian military could still defend their skies, as
certain air defense locations were overlooked in the initial invasion plan. When this didn’t work,
Putin tried to send more supplies to his forces which were intercepted or destroyed by Ukrainian
forces. It was this lack of communication that was a key factor that led to Russian troops
failing to secure Kyiv. If military leaders and the Kremlin were aware of the heavy resistance
that Ukraine was putting up from the onset, they might have adjusted their tactics sooner, which
would have reduced the number of troops, tanks, and artillery lost in the early days of the war.
After word finally reached Putin that things were not going according to plan,
objectives changed a bit. Russian forces were tasked with taking control of airbases
around Kyiv to allow for more supplies and troops to be flown into the region. Again,
Russian military leaders were working under the assumption that any Ukrainian resistance
at the airfields would be minimal, but this was not the case either. Russian forces sustained
more casualties. Their attack helicopters were blown out of the sky, and their ground forces
were slaughtered by Ukrainian snipers and anti-tank weapons purchased from the west.
Eventually, the airfields were secured, but it was a little too late. It was clear that the
entire war plan needed to be reimagined. Vladamir Putin had to face the reality that the Ukrainians
would not just give up and that they did not want to be a part of Russia. A new narrative
needed to be written, and the Kremlin decided that it was time to go back to what Russia does best:
bomb stuff and cause a massive amount of mayhem to distract from what is really happening.
An iron rain was unleashed on Kyiv and the surrounding region. Civilian casualties
started to mount, but Putin didn’t care. He had already made so many mistakes it didn’t
matter who was being killed by his bombs and artillery shells. All Putin wanted was
to show the world he still had power. As the bombardment of Kyiv ramped up,
it was clear that Russia would not achieve their goals any time soon. The days of believing in a
quick victory were over, and things were about to get even worse for the Russian military.
Ukrainian forces started to push out from Kyiv, causing the Russians to retreat. The failure of
the initial invasion force to surround the city meant that Ukrainian troops and armor
could flank key Russian positions and start reclaiming the territory around
the capital. On top of that, supplies were not reaching Russian troops as
their logistic lines were being disrupted by Ukrainian resistance soldiers in eastern and
northern Ukraine. The convoys that were meant to provide Russian siege forces
with more men and resources were blown up or captured by the Ukrainian military.
Once again, Russian incompetence showed itself in their ranks. The resupply convoy was designed with
limited off-road capabilities, which meant it needed to follow main roads to deliver
supplies. This made it easy for Ukrainian forces to set up choke points and ambushes
along the road. If a little more planning had gone into the vital supply runs that
Russian troops desperately needed around Kyiv, they may have been able to get the upper hand.
Again, the sheer size of the Russian military made a victory in Ukraine seem all but inevitable
to Putin and his allies. But even outnumbering the Ukrainians in every military aspect possible
does not make up for egregious incompetence within the Russian ranks and government.
By March 25th, Vladamir Putin had to take drastic actions as it was clear his initial objective of
taking Kyiv would not be accomplished. He made up a new narrative that Russia had successfully
achieved its goals in northern Ukraine and that everything was going according to plan—which was
absolutely not true. Putin claimed it was time to shift Russia’s attention toward the south,
where their troops were trying to secure the Donbas Region. Really,
this was just a ploy to draw attention away from the failure in the north.
Months after the Russian military was supposed to be victorious in taking Kyiv and ending the war,
Ukraine reclaimed almost all of the territory Russia had initially taken in the north. What
it all comes down to is that almost winning a war is not the same as actually winning a war.
Putin has shifted his tactics further in recent months by literally digging
trenches for his troops in the Kherson Oblast to hide in if Ukraine launches
an offensive in the region. His main objective now appears to be holding onto
Russian-controlled regions in the south at all costs. The most important of which is Crimea.
Vladimir Putin was sure that Russia would win the war in Ukraine within days by capturing
Kyiv. Then he was sure Russia would be victorious by laying siege to cities around the country. Now
he appears to be sure that Russia can hold southern Ukraine long enough for conscripts,
supplies, and reinforcements to reach his forces before a Ukrainian offensive can
break his lines. At the beginning of the war, Putin was close to winning.
With every day that passes, Putin is coming closer and closer to losing.
Now watch “Ukraine's Plan to Win the War.” Or
check out “Why Are Russian Tanks Failing in Ukraine.”