Hi everyone, I'm chief meteorologist
Pete Delkus, right here at our
Victory Park Studios in Dallas, TX.
I I do have a a pretty comprehensive
tropical update for us because we now
have our 9th named storm of the season.
And yes, as I mentioned
yesterday on this update,
it was going to be Ida and it certainly is.
Right now we have three systems we're
watching two out in the Atlantic right now.
No threat to the United States.
But Ida is certainly.
A threat, and I'm afraid that it's going to
be a pretty significant threat to the United
States as it strengthens over the next.
Next 24 to 48,
maybe 72 hours landfall right now.
Sometime on Sunday,
we've had eight named storms.
Prior to Ida.
You can see where we are at this point.
I'd is still a tropical storm,
but it will become a hurricane as we
head into the early part of the weekend.
Some information I looked up this morning
that I want to share with you that I
thought was interesting was retired.
Hurricane names by letters.
Remember that they retire these.
Hurricanes when they have been significant.
Most likely,
I think significance would fall
into the category of death,
so when they are significant
tropical systems,
those names are retired and the
number one retired letter IS II has
been retired more than any other.
Interestingly enough Ida I as well a
second on the list would be F and also
C and then third on the list would be E.
The deeper into the alphabet you go,
the lower number of.
Names that have been retired by letter.
Obviously we haven't had any VIS,
but nonetheless I just thought that little
tidbit of information was interesting.
So idea is the 9th named storm of the season.
The average date for the ninth
named Storm is September 15th.
That average date for the 10th
named Storm is September 21st,
so you could see were way
ahead of the average is here.
The 11th named Storm is October 1,
so again, a very busy tropical
season so far here in 2021.
There's Jamaica.
Those are the Cayman Islands.
Between the two.
There is idea 40 mile per hour
winds at this point moving to the
northwest at 14 miles an hour.
We already have watches and
warnings that are up right now.
Tropical storm warnings for the Caymans
and also of course for the Western rebel.
Both the western third or
so of the island of Cuba.
No hurricane warnings at this point,
but those aren't far away there.
We are hurricane by Saturday
category one winds of 80 remember
74 stronger hurricane winds.
We're looking at a category two at
this point. Now this is this forecast.
This intensity forecast and certainly.
The the landfall of this
could certainly change,
but it's a kind of South Central or
southeastern Louisiana right now.
Sunday afternoon one o'clock.
This nationalist official forecast from the
National Hurricane Center winds of 110.
That's a category two winds of 111
now takes it to a category three,
which is a major hurricane,
so will be right there,
and it wouldn't surprise me at all
if this does become, I would expect
it to become a major hurricane,
and the reason that I expected
to become a major hurricane.
I'll walk through in just a moment.
The track then takes it right
in through the southeast.
In United States,
right up through Louisiana and then
up into parts of a Mississippi and
then even parts of Arkansas and
even Tennessee will see more rain.
Now here's one of the concerns that I have.
These are the soil moisture conditions.
Texas.
Of course,
we all know there's no drought here,
so our soil moisture conditions with all
the rain we had a week or so ago were wet.
It's extremely wet,
very saturated here.
This is right where the track is right
where the track is and look how much
rain we're looking at anywhere from
4 to 10 plus inches of rain along
the path of what will become Hurricane Ida.
Now we look down here into the sea surface
temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico.
The reason that I feel is this will
become a category three is we have this.
Jet fuel this high octane fuel for this
system to a really intensified sea surface.
Temps 8587 degrees so we're looking
at middle to upper 80 degree
sea surface temperatures,
which again that's exactly what these
systems need for rapid intensification.
We don't have any wind shear,
nothing to just share it apart.
Nothing to tear it apart.
Nothing to blow it apart as
we head into the weekend.
We don't have any dry air either.
Unfortunately we have a lot of moisture
in place at all levels of the atmosphere
as Ida moves into the Gulf of Mexico.
On Saturday,
so once again that is Ida.
That's where it's currently located at watch.
This model is.
It moves across the western portion
of Cuba out into the Gulf of Mexico.
You can see a center of circulation
starting to develop on Saturday,
and this one model does bring
it into the state of Louisiana
as almost all the models do now.
What does this mean for North Texas?
A Louisiana landfall would mean warmer
and drier weather for North Texas.
There farther to the east we are will
be on the backside of that system.
And when you're on the backside of a
system like this, you have sinking air.
You have subsidy and tear.
You have compressional heating.
That takes place so that compressional
warming that will just allow
our temperatures.
Here in North Texas,
when this thing makes landfall,
we're looking at middle,
maybe some upper 90s around here.
As we head into the early,
the end of the weekend in
the early part of next week,
so we will continue to keep an
eye on what's
going on down to the tropics,
but from the WFAA weather center
here at our Victory Park Studios in
Downtown Dallas, that's the latest.