Gillian let me turn first to you as I look at that look what's going on right now and look at what this means for investors.
We do have a big war going on with a lot of tragedy and a lot of potential consequences for geopolitics which has seen
potentially a change in the world economic order as well. You're absolutely seeing a change from what economic order in that
wonderful Francis Fukuyama phrase that we lived in the end of history at the beginning or the end of the 20th century and 21st
century has been shown to be can be wrong because essentially history be going backwards. And we're seeing what we thought was
a world that was globalizing as a whole essentially fragmenting into the U.S. China spheres of influence the so-called band
Cotton to cite Hank Paulson and the increasing split between you know the Western bloc and the Slavic Russian bloc if you like
the new caviar cut. And so you're essentially seeing two and a half potentially three different areas emerging. And that is
really a very big shift that we haven't seen this kind of magnitude of upheaval for several decades.
Peter we've had Larry Fink recently saying he thinks is the end of globalization which I think a lot of people thought was
overblown. That's way too soon to call that. But are we seeing as Jillian
suggests perhaps at least dividing up in part into some blocks around the world which is quite different from where we thought
we were headed. Yeah look I I do think that this Russian incursion into Ukraine that has created a geopolitical shift is
going to reverberate through not only political affiliations but also economic affiliations. I think to say that globalization is
dead is way overblown. I don't think that that's even in the cards. But I do think that there are gonna be numerous places in
which companies are going to decide to actually accept a higher cost of manufacturer and thinking they can pass that through to
the to the consumer. And so you're going to have higher structural inflation as a result of that. Now will that
structural inflation be offset by technical technological advances and innovations. It may well be but I think clearly
we're going to see a change. The one interesting question to me about visa globalization just as trading bloc points that you
to. China has attempted and still attempts to actually establish a
contrary trading block to the U.S. and its allies. The U.S. and its allies are far far bigger. If the U.S. and its allies
through this geopolitical change decide to actually operate in a more concerted fashion as happened after World War Two that's
going to create enormous issue for the Chinese and other people in that other block because they need to trade with this with
this Western bloc and they need to trade significantly with it. So it's it's sort of up to the Western democracies and the Asian
democracies about how they play this. If it all balkanized ISE and people go their separate ways. That's probably not a good
thing for the economics and for the markets if there is some sense of cohesion and an attempt to create more free trade
capability between that bloc. I think that's actually an increase in economic activity and good for markets.
Johanna is it possible that we might give up in sort of convenient dealing with why there were some countries will be
made up for other places that is to say is it like this would drive a closer union with for example Western Europe Japan South
Korea even Taiwan. Well there is a optimistic scenario which is you know tossed
around say the chip sector. Various parts of industry right now. Which is it. Okay. So America no longer count on China as being
the factory of the world. It can alone account and having this labor supply side shock where suddenly wages are depressed
because you can outsource everything to China. Let's bring it back into into North America. Maybe put more factories into
Mexico. You'll create more jobs. Back in the US. And guess what. You'll be environmentally will green as well. You want me moving
things around so much. That's the kind of optimistic scenario of essentially this reshuffling of the geopolitical order. The
pessimistic scenario though is that of course many commodities and raw materials are not found within the allied trading block
at the moment. And you can't suddenly create lithium mines overnight even though Elon Musk tweeted that he'd like to. This
week another promise. It is not clear that Mark has a workforce for even and supporting some massive reassuring of its
manufacturing industrial base. And yes maybe you can give it all to robots. But you know even robots can't necessarily be the
easy answer right now. So Peter let me ask you this. Is Wall Street weak after all how we make some money here if in fact
there is what Gillian just called a reshuffling of the world order. What does that tell me. I should put my money right now.
Look you can't answer that question and say put your money here for the next two weeks three weeks a month whatever you have to
look at this over a longer period time. But look Europe has clearly made the statement that they're going to invest in their
energy infrastructure which means alternative energy. They're gonna invest in defense.
And those two areas have enormous tentacles throughout their economies and all kinds of companies that will benefit from
that. I do think there will be some attempt in the United States to actually build some
semiconductor and chip capability that people are concerned about as having have been off shored. So you're going to see
investments in that. You can see it in the intel announcements and the attempt to build large plants in the south. So I don't
think it takes a great deal of imagination to see where to put your money over the long term. I still think describe the
geopolitical question that the children and I are sort of touching on is a big deal. And the longer term trends and the
bigger opportunity to make money is trying to figure out where that is going to fall. Peter there was one other event that
certainly shook those of us in New York and around Wall Street this week. That was that shooting in the crowded Brooklyn
subway. Somebody who spent so much time on Wall Street. Do you think that may have a longer term effects particularly we try to
bring workers back to work. It's shaken up a lot of people. I use a terrible tragedy and terrible for New York but New York
survived 9/11. It survived many other things. And we will survive this and we will continue on.