In this series, we will analyse teams, identify problem areas, and suggest
solutions in the form of incoming players.
We won’t follow gossip, rumours or conjecture. We’re concerned
only with a player’s on-field performance and their suitability for the role in question.
Today’s team is Liverpool, welcome to Sensible Transfers.
Liverpool are an excellent team, with high calibre players in every position
and some significant talents coming through in midfield.
They set up in a 4-3-3 or a 4-2-3-1, press well, and have high levels of technical proficiency.
They play a high line, aided by the excellence of Alisson and Virgil van Dijk, using quick,
sometimes long transitions to shift the ball rapidly up the pitch. Diogo Jota’s signing and
Trent Alexander-Arnold’s use this season as a more inverted wing back have shown that Jurgen Klopp is
willing to shift from the tactical blueprint that served him so well for years, a narrow compact
midfield three and wide overlapping full backs working with inverted wingers. But aspects of this
remain, which means that although Klopp is likely to diversify his tactical approach with additional
nuances in his attacking structures, the overarching approach is unlikely to change much.
Klopp knows that his side should be challenging for both the Premier League and the Champions
League, and that requires good squad depth as well as excellent players.
So, what’s the issue? Next year – 2023 - is going to be a pivotal year for Liverpool.
All three of Liverpool’s key attackers’ contracts are up. The following year,
Jurgen Klopp’s contract expires too and while he may or may not take a sabbatical,
it is not in the Klopp’s nature to leave such significant issues unresolved.
In addition, Liverpool’s well-regarded sporting director Michael Edwards
is off, with Julian Ward appointed to succeed him at the end of the season.
While Ward is an internal appointment, Liverpool need to ensure that the talent ID pipeline
that has brought significant recent success is preserved.
So, while it’s highly unlikely that Liverpool will make big moves in January,
the next significant transfer they make will be in the forward line. The up-and-coming
talent is in midfield or defence. And while Diogo Jota has been a successful acquisition,
bringing both a new facet to Liverpool’s attacking options
while also being able to deputise from Firmino and Mane, he can’t do it alone.
Mane, Salah, and Firmino have excelled for Liverpool for years. So far this season,
this triumvirate account for around 55% of the team’s goals, with Jota netting a further 20%,
and 40% of their shots. Neither Manchester City or Chelsea are as reliant on a starting
set of forwards for goals and shots, or indeed to fill places in the team.
There’s no real statistical issue: Liverpool just need to sign players who can challenge,
and then replace, one of the best front threes in world football. The wide attackers must be quick,
hard-working on and off the ball, and skilful. The centre forward should be able to press,
drop off and play in the wide forwards, and score goals themselves.
The factors we’ve mentioned already are very important. So too is the idea that these
players should be versatile enough to play more than one position in the forward line.
It’s very unlikely, but if Liverpool could prise Bukayo Saka away from Arsenal,
it could be a transformative signin. Quick, clever, and technical, Saka is versatile enough
to offer Liverpool options, while good enough to lock down the right-wing position on his own.
Our pick, though, is probably an easier get.
Shakhtar Donetsk is famous for unearthing Brazilian talent that transfers well to
top European teams, and the next player off the line should be Tetê. A rapid,
tricky winger who favours his left foot, Tetê’s dribbling catches the eye,
but his passing from slightly deeper positions, often changing the angle of attack,
are what really excites. He would play on the right but could move centrally to make clever runs
in behind or play in an overlapping full-back or central midfielder moving wide, just like Elliott
likes to. His natural playmaking tendencies would fit well with the direction Klopp seems to want to
take his team, while he also brings a direct attacking threat. With his goals and assists
per 90 trending upwards season to season, this 21-year old is ready to make the leap.
On the left, Lyon’s Rayan Cherki has shown the kind of potential that could see him ready to
star for a big side in the future, although his defensive output would need to improve. He’s not
the finished article, but he is still only 18. A player who could step up immediately, though,
is the exciting Christopher Nkunku. RB Leipzig’s versatile, right-footed attacker can play equally
ably as a striker or left inside forward. His mazy dribbles, deft through balls,
and shooting ability are remarkable. He’s a smart player, able to assess situations rapidly
and then execute a carry, through ball, safe pass, or shot with excellent technical ability.
Nkunku is 24 years old, so about to enter his prime. A product of Paris Saint-Germain’s
excellent academy, he’s learned verticality and pressing football in the hothouse of RB Leipzig,
breaking through under Julian Nagelsmann. Without overselling Nkunku, he would be ready
to step up to Liverpool immediately, and offer tactical versatility across the front line.
He’s a perfect fit and the most sensible of these suggested transfers.
Through the middle, Liverpool can’t try to replicate Firmino. He’s a footballing unicorn,
a striker who plays as a 10, or a 10 who plays like a striker, while defending like a six.
We’ve highlighted Leicester City’s Kelechi Iheanacho for this role before and we’re sticking
to it: the Nigerian is really a 10 but who has played enough as a 9 to fit the hybrid role.
His ability to play in quick attackers is clear from some of his assists for Jamie Vardy,
and he’s a surprisingly tight statistical fit for Firmino’s output.
Should Liverpool wish to go in a slightly different direction, though, it might be worth
taking a punt on RB Salzburg’s Benjamin Šeško. The Slovenian teenager has not played much so far,
but his 0.57 goals and assists per 90 is impressive. He’s a strong,
aerially dominant striker, built like a tank, who shows a surprising deftness of touch too.
He’s quick too and can play on the transition with a surprisingly good ability to carry the ball
for a strong striker. It would be over-the-top to describe him as the next Erling Haaland,
but that’s the kind of player he will mature into. Šeško is not immediately ready, but is
also sufficiently different to what’s currently in Liverpool’s arsenal to make him a viable bench
option, garnering minutes and experience before he develops into a genuinely high class talent.