greetings all all right short one i had
said in my last q a video that i was
generally going to hold my peace on the
current ukraine goings-on because though
there was a great demand for information
there is very little stuff coming out
which is useful from my perspective to
assess and pass on to you guys
there have actually been a couple of
interesting snippets but by and large i
believe that that position still holds
true
i have little to add to the current
discussion in terms of constructive
information
however i was asked by a chap on
facebook if i could do a video which
could perhaps expand on the question of
what conclusions one cannot draw
on the basis of the information which
has come out and that i think is
something that has some merit as i'm
seeing various conclusions and
interpretations being drawn which is
certainly possible but not necessarily
as definitive as people might think
here's the first one and i've seen this
a couple of times now with the advent of
everyone having an n-law rpg panzerfaust
or javelin and a proven capability to
knock out tanks the day of the tank is
over
with the advent of drones like barry at
car knocking out tanks the day of the
tank is over and so on
no
very definitely no
and there is absolutely nothing new here
in fact there is very little new about
this war at all that i've seen except
for the surprising incompetence of the
russian military
people have been advocating the death of
the tank since egyptians shamed the
might of the israeli armored corps with
funny little remote controlled rockets
that they assembled from suitcases in
1973
tankers learned to adapt more accurately
armies learned to adapt
missile suppression became a standard
feature in military doctrine both by
nature such as increased mortar or
artillery use or new weapons
developments such as the arrival of auto
cannons on ifvs
then came the missile equipped attack
helicopter to destroy all the tanks and
in response
units began to sprout anti-helicopter
weaponry from the return of heavy
machine guns and soviet tanks to the
development of escorting anti-aircraft
vehicles optimized for helicopter work
then the next one was drones
but again even as you're watching the
drone strikes some of the analysts are
asking where's the air defense
now new show rad systems are optimizing
for an anti-drone capability instead of
just anti-helicopter we're not quite
there yet but systems are being fielded
and even in the 2020 nagorno-karabakh
war though the drones got all the press
it was the maneuver elements which won
the fight
assessments after the war indicated that
the drones were an enabler but not the
dominant part of the military it was
still riflemen and tanks supported by
artillery you know the traditional army
which did the job of closing with and
destroying the enemy
basically the answer to pretty much any
threat to the tank has been and
continues to be
combined arms
sure new systems like active protection
systems do provide a saving throw and
are helpful but they are not the first
line of defense
that tanks unsupported by the other arms
our easy prey
is tanking 101 and what we are seeing in
ukraine isn't revolutionary it's exactly
what you would expect to happen if you
send vehicles in unsupported into areas
infested with infantry and not denied to
enemy air
next and this gets beaten into intel
officers in particular but we're all
subject to it
information is not intelligence data
does not necessarily permit a conclusion
this is the most broadcast the best
covered war in history bystanders with
mobile phones are uploading to the web
events as soon as they happen soldiers
with helmet cams are doing the same
thing
but for those of us who live in today's
world of instant gratification and who
watch war porn on twitter all you are
getting are the trees with no concept of
the woods
indeed you're just getting the bark on
the trees there is a very large empty
space existing in between what is being
shown when you watch a snippet of a
missile firing a vehicle
and the daily roundups showing red
splotches on the map where the russians
have advanced
there are several problems
to start
you're only getting to see the data
which is uploaded
we're seeing lots of sequences of
ukrainians shooting at russians
they're the ones with the good cell
phone availability
upload capability to twitter and private
citizenry with cameras to cover
everything
to view it you'd think it was all
one-sided
yet the russians are still doing most of
the advancing at least up until just
recently this time of recording
incredibly slowly and expensively
yes but just because russian soldiers
aren't uploading their side of the story
or maybe we just don't want to see it
because we're rooting for the ukrainians
doesn't mean it's not happening
now as that happens russian footage is
out there but you need to hunt for it
because it's on media like telegram or
the russian state organs so we don't see
it very much
secondly the editing and this goes back
years insurgent videos from the middle
east
would repeatedly show an engagement the
missile will strike the tank big
explosion cloud of dust obscuring the
tank and then cut to the next scene
normally not showing the effect of what
happened leading to the probability that
the tank survived and is now just quite
angry
but showing that kinda kills the point
of the propaganda
and make no bones both sides are engaged
in propaganda they'll be idiots not to
okay maybe the russians are idiots
anyway but not because of the propaganda
i shall use by way of practical example
the video most of you have probably seen
by now are the ambush of an armored
column at close range as filmed by a
drone
and again it's amazing the footage we're
getting in the war i have been looking
but i have not seen an unedited version
of the engagement from start to finish
and i would love to have seen it
but anyway
imagine what had been released was a
compilation video praise to the end law
or whatever just showing a bunch of
kills complete with a droning ukrainian
male chorus
shot cloud of smoke indicating a hit
and then an obvious burnout slava
ukraine
and let's move on to the next engagement
now
i'll just do a little bit of quick
editing
and i'll show you a failed ambush using
the same footage
shot is fired hits the tank era probably
a bmp fires an auto cannon to suppress
as it leaves the kill zone the target
tank keeps rolling apparently the era
worked and you can see the exhaust plume
from the exhaust left rear of the tank
as the driver guns it out of the area
then the following tanks further behind
the column orient on the ambush and two
of them blast the attackers with one
twenty five millimeter he frag
those poor desperate futile fools
that's the original target tank just
continues to drive off the bottom of the
screen what a waste of life
of course
we know from watching even more of the
footage that the tank did indeed
eventually brew up
but this is simply an example of how
watching an edited video can lead to
questionable conclusions
ask not only
what did i just see
but what might i not have seen
this one you've likely also seen raises
a question or two
tank driving along completely on its own
it deserves what's about to happen to it
takes a hit then edit
what happened out of the hit
second hit that one blows the track but
it certainly doesn't kill the tank as
evidenced by the turret turning on the
power and the driver able to still move
the vehicle
but then there's another editing gap
the third hit is the penetration as
evidenced by the fact that the blast
goes out the gun tube and that indicates
that the breach was open
had the tank recently fired during the
edit and was in the reload process
it seems that the gunner and driver at
least have survived thus far explosion
number four is internal and number five
seems to be the overhead catenary
equipment for the trolleybuses exploding
either that or some missile which is
fired at an obviously already burning
tank happened to hit that overhead line
and was just misfortunate enough to
detonate on it directly
but the larger context of the video
seems to be completely missing
just how long did this entire sequence
actually take
was the tank truly alone or was there an
additional engagement from whatever
other forces may have made all those
other track marks in the street
you get the
idea third
you're generally seeing only the
successful attacks nobody's going to go
about broadcasting their misses
we have absolutely no way of knowing how
many javelins are fired for each afv
kill how many stingers per helicopter
and so on
this of course applies to both the
russians and ukrainians
footage such as the su-25 which took the
sam hit but continued on with its attack
seems to be very rare
fourth be wary of the fact that you
don't know what it is you don't know
trentalenko who's been having quite a
surge on twitter after his tire thread
recently tagged me asking what i made of
a video sequence of a captured vehicle
which had multiple hubcaps missing and
an entire wheel
i could only think of two things
either incompetent maintenance where
multiple hubs were pulled at the same
time and left open while an adjacent
wheel was replaced what you don't want
to do is the longer you leave a hub
uncovered in the field conditions the
more likely dirt and the like is going
to get into the hub and bearings
or
the vehicle was rated for parts for
other vehicles in the unit and then it
was abandoned to be discovered by the
ukrainians
i honestly cannot think of any other
reasonable explanation
however
just because i can't think of any other
explanation doesn't mean that no other
explanations are possible such
pronouncements even from experts
need not be the be all and end all
fifthly watch out for logic traps for
example
declarations such as
we now know that the overhead armor
cages don't work
as an aside i have no idea where this
cope cage business comes from though i
do appreciate emotional support armor
of all the videos i have seen i have not
seen a single weapon perform a top
attack against a tank turret equipped
with the overhead protection
i've seen lots of rpgs stigmas oh and i
note that they have a remote launch
capability in-laws and the like but
nothing to prove that the tanks with
additional top armor which were knocked
out
were knocked out through that additional
armor
a related one is the lack of active
protection systems on the tanks
the russians have been making hay in pr
out of arena and the likes for years
yet none scenes were shown on the
footage of the destroyed russian tanks
technically that could be because the
ones with active protection are working
and surviving and thus not being lost to
be filmed
then that means that you're only seeing
the ones that were not so equipped and
got destroyed
yes i know a draws equipped tank got
destroyed that's hardly exactly cutting
edge equipment
now for this particular example we do
have a little bit more context
in the various abandoned operating
vehicles which also have no notable
active protections
which leads credence to the
they're not being fitted argument over
the
they're working so you don't see them
argument
but it's in addition to the basic logic
hopefully you get the point
another example take the sequence of a
btr4 engaging a t72 from the flank
sure it's possible that we have another
example of an unsupported unaware tank
getting what's coming to it
on the other hand the advancing
ukrainian infantry indicates that this
might be part of a local counter-attack
for all we know the tank in question is
already productively engaged in shooting
at other ukrainians and the escorting
russian infantry hasn't had time to pass
the word of the btr coming around the
corner
as picard told data
it is possible to commit no mistakes and
still lose
okay overall i think you get my point
these videos and photos often pose as
many questions as the answer
sometimes it can indeed draw very
interesting conclusions often with the
aid of incredibly arcane knowledge such
as trent's tire post
but they are usually only up close
snapshots normally devoid of any larger
context
oh and sometimes folks forget about
opsec whoever posted this obviously
hadn't heard of the hate that the bbc
got for supposedly notifying the
argentinians that they had fusing
problems on their bombs
also not everything unpleasant is a war
crime
so they shot up a school or a shopping
mall or used a fire marbaric was there a
legitimate military reason to shoot it
with that weapon within the balance of
the laws of land warfare if so
not a war crime
one can also argue that videoing and
broadcasting prisoners is a war crime
that the ukrainians are doing by the way
personal question to ponder after about
three weeks
where were the large ukrainian maneuver
units
we've only seen engagements really as
part of defensive warfare
ukraine has entire mechanized brigades
if they're just holding the line that
doesn't bode well for a ukrainian
counter offensive defending is all well
and good but victory comes from the
offense otherwise all you're doing is
you're just letting the opposition have
time to fix whatever it is that they're
doing wrong
yep obviously the
mechanized units are being used they've
lost some two battalions worth of t-64s
for example
were they just run over by russian
attacks or were they destroyed
attempting to conduct a
counter-attack this sort of question is
likely to only be answered when the
history books of the war are written
but it's a really big question in
between the videos shown on twitter and
the maps being posted in the daily
updates
that said i am aware of some recent
reports of counter-offensives
anyway i hope i've given you some food
for thought as we continue to watch the
goings-on in ukraine
i'm no more for being more of a
historian
and this counts as current affairs
so i still think most of my work will
come in the years to follow
alright take care