For most people, the coronavirus lockdown would be a whole lot easier
if there were live sports to distract us.
But that seems unlikely to happen anytime soon, since the idea of
packing thousands of people into a stadium defeats the whole purpose
of social distancing. In the interim, however, there are all manner
of sports happening online.
There's tennis star Roger Federer, who's quarantined in Switzerland,
hitting trick shots in the snow.
A college swimmer fulfilling her backyard Olympic dream.
It's even reached a point where the NBA held a virtual made-for-TV
HORSE tournament, pitting shooters against one another from remote
locations around the country.
But there are only so many remote, made-for-Instagram contests one
can watch before the desire for human competition and something to
gamble on needs to be met.
So that raises the question, when will real sports return?
It was one of the best times of the year for sports.
The NBA and NHL seasons were nearing playoffs, spring training was
underway and the NCAA tournament was approaching.
Then? Silence.
You quickly realize how much sport
influences key chunks of your of your daily life, of your weekly,
monthly, etc.. Right.
And how sometimes you actually plan other things around the sports in
people's lives, whether it's at the youth sport level for community
or all the way up to the major league sport level, either watching,
attending or or sports betting or something like that.
The real gravity of the coronavirus situation didn't hit in the U.S.
until early March.
First, Utah Jazz Center Rudy Gobert tested positive for the
coronavirus. And the next day, the NBA announced it was suspending
its season and that same day, the National Hockey League, which plays
many of its games in the same arenas as the NBA, announced it would
be postponing its scheduled.
We've taken a pause, a multiple hesitant to use the word suspension
because our hope and our expectation is when things get back to
normal and it's safe and it's prudent that we can go back and resume
the season and ultimately have the Stanley Cup award.
Major League Soccer then halted its season while the U.S.
Soccer Federation announced it would cancel friendly matches over
coronavirus fears.
And that announcement was followed by Major League Baseball slamming
the brakes on spring training, as well as the World Baseball Classic
qualifier games.
In the NCAA. The NBA playoffs.
NHL playoffs. Sports that are in the playoff run.
That's where the money's made.
That's the most profitable time of the year.
So those sports are in the toughest position.
Things like Major League Baseball, they can delay the season.
They can add double headers.
They can extend the season.
But those sports during the playoff run, it's going to be difficult.
The All England Club decided it would cancel Wimbledon due to public
health concerns linked to the coronavirus epidemic.
The French Open tennis championship followed suit by announcing it
would move to the fall. And the Boston Marathon, traditionally held
on Patriot's Day in April, was moved to September 14th.
A few days later, the PGA postpone the Masters until November and the
2020 Olympics in Tokyo were moved to July of 2021.
Although recently the head of the committee couldn't commit to the
games starting on time.
Professional sports bring in billions of dollars each year to teams
into the peripheral businesses that support or surround venues around
the country. That changes drastically under a lockdown.
An ESPN analysis conducted by Patrick Rishe of Washington University
in St. Louis estimated leagues will lose about $12 billion in
revenue. Rhode Island research firm Performance Research estimates
major event cancellations and postponements in the U.S.
would lead to at least $6 billion in economic losses.
And it will be worse the longer the pandemic drags out.
The NBA alone could lose over a billion dollars.
NASCAR took a $680 million hit for the races in Atlanta.
Miami, Texas, Bristol enrichment.
The cancellation of spring training costs Major League Baseball some
$200 million.
The firm Media Radar estimates delaying opening day could cost the
league's broadcasters about 60 million in advertising dollars just
over the season's first three months.
And if the season started and the games played without fans, the
league projects, it would lose $640,000 per game.
At the same time, NHL teams lost about $1.6 million in revenue per
team for every canceled home game.
And the International Olympic Committee said that delaying the Games
until 2021 would cost it $800 million.
Another major cancellation with the NCAA tournament, a huge cash
generator for college sports.
Mark Emmert, the NCAA president, told ESPN in March that 85 percent
of the organization's revenue comes from the tournament.
More troublesome, the NCAA was slated to send some $600 million to
various athletic conferences in the U.S.
Since the tournament cancellation, the NCAA delay says the amount
will be more like $225 million.
The results of that is some schools could be forced to make cuts to
their athletic budgets.
To that end, the University of Cincinnati recently announced it was
canceling its men's soccer program due to widespread uncertainty.
Aramark supplies a number of sports venues and colleges with food for
concessions and cafeterias.
Our traditional business dining held campus services and sports and
entertainment are significantly impacted.
But at this point in time, campus dining really was beginning to
close down for the balance of the year.
So we're hopeful that the universities will continue to operate going
forward in the fall.
And it's not just the service business that could be in trouble.
Sports franchise owners whose primary businesses are hotels, casinos,
restaurants, or others severely impacted by the lockdown, could be
looking for a lifeline.
I think you're going to see some leagues and teams, owners who may
have to seek some sort of protection.
You know, I know nobody wants to talk about government intervention in
sports, but either through the banks or to other areas, because that
capitalization just isn't as deep as one might think if you weren't
in the industry.
What makes it even more difficult is that leagues like the NBA and NHL
were both approaching their playoffs.
Any NHL and the NBA was almost in the middle of their post seasons,
which is when their revenue was high because the ratings are high.
Everything is more, you know, active.
So that hurts and that's why he's trying to preserve some from those
two leagues. The NHL announced plans to resume its season in late
May. But first, it issued a 22 page document entitled NHL Phased
Return to Sport Protocol that placed stringent limitations on
players, coaches and organizations as a means of ensuring safety.
Commissioner Gary Bettman said clubs would begin to open facilities
so players could get back on the ice.
Although he did say that no training camps would begin before July
1st. NASCAR returned on May 17th at Darlington Raceway in South
Carolina but without fans and with stringent requirements for a
significantly reduced pit crew.
And the PGA Tour will resume its season June 8th through the 14th at
Colonial Country Club in Texas.
Our players are eager to return, excited to return, are excited to
inspire this country, but also know that in announcing the schedule
yesterday that we're going to do so in a safe and responsible way.
There will be no fans on the course.
In fact, most leagues have talked about playing games without fans,
at least initially.
They're trying to save some of that media revenue.
And if they got to play games without fans, they'll take a hit to the
gate revenue. If it means preserving billions of dollars immediately.
The NBA is planning a July 31 return date with games to be played in
Orlando, Florida. The league would hold a short regular season for 22
teams, followed by a tournament that would allow it to crown a
champion on or before October 12th.
Meanwhile, Major League Baseball, which postponed the World Baseball
Classic to 2023 and move this year's Hall of Fame ceremony to next
year, is also exploring options for its season.
The owners met in May and reportedly proposed an 82-game season with
an October postseason, which would include 14 teams.
Teams would carry 30 players with a 20-player 'taxi squad' of minor
league athletes that would allow players to be ready if they're
called up as an injury replacement.
The union countered with its own proposal, according to ESPN, which
would allow a 114-game season to begin on June 30th and on
Halloween. Playoffs and the World Series would be played in November.
But the owners rejected the proposal and may unilaterally implement a
50-game season as a result.
The two sides remain at an impasse over compensation, however, as
owners have sought bigger pay cuts due to a lack of revenue from
tickets and concessions, the league recently issued a 67-page safety
manual that included such precautions as no high fives, masks in the
dugout and a change of baseballs when multiple players touch one.
The plan also includes intake screening and frequent testing.
Whatever they decide, baseball fans the with season tickets are
getting impatient.
Two in New York recently sued Major League Baseball and its 30 teams,
as well as Commissioner Rob Manfred.
They want their money back and are trying to start a class action
lawsuit to make it happen.
The National Football League has been less impacted by the pandemic
so far, and while it's said it's confident there will be a 2020
season, the camps that occur before then are all in jeopardy.
Still, the league went ahead with free agency and its April player
draft. I'll be virtually and without the usual crowds in the city
where it takes place.
People are so starved for sports that the draft dodger record TV
ratings for the first round up 37 percent from last year.
In spite of all of the uncertainty, demand for NFL tickets has been so
strong, ticket prices have actually gone up.
After the attacks on 9/11, professional sports leagues were forced to
institute security measures to keep fans safe.
Those measures included risk assessments, scalable security plans,
communication protocols in constant measurement of venue security
programs. There must now be an equal effort towards health security
measures. You had to get accustomed to going to your magnetometers to
come into a sporting event like never before.
In this case, you might have to subject yourself to a temperature
scan or some other kind of health check initially.
Omega Family Office Chairman Leon Cooperman would go one step further.
I could see a year from today when they have a vaccine if you want
access to a sporting event or to a concert.
You can basically have to have a vaccination card showing that you've
been vaccinated against the virus and to get access to these events.
The Miami Dolphins became the first NFL team to reveal plans that
would eventually allow fans to attend live games, albeit with a much
smaller crowd. Miami's Hard Rock stadium generally holds about 65,000
people. The Dolphins would cut that number to 15,000.
Fans with socially distance from one another, be required to wear
masks and have to order food from concessions before going upstairs
to pick up their orders. When the game's over, they would have to
exit the stadium one row at a time.
Texas Governor Greg Abbott announced in late May that Texas would
allow fans to attend outdoor professional sporting events.
Attendance would be capped at 25 percent of capacity, and leagues
would have to receive approval from the Texas Department of State
Health Services. But what if someone who comes to the game infects
other fans? Conway says teams will be protected from liability in
much the same way baseball teams or hockey teams warn about flying
baseballs or pucks, with the language on the back of the ticket.
The ticket that you buy on the back has a has a liability clause in
there that pretty much protects them from just about any unless
there's some negligence to do that.
Again, you could see organizations adjusting that to allow for this
kind of scenario.
During a call with sports commissioners in April, President Trump
reportedly said he believed the NFL season could start on time this
fall. He reiterated that desire several weeks later.
When I look at a baseball game, I want to see people right next to
each other. I don't want to see four seats in between every person so
that the stadium becomes 25 percent of its original size.
No, I want to see the NFL with a packed house.
I don't want to see NFL with three seats in between people.
I want to I want to go back to where it was.
That's where we're going to be.
But a recent survey from Seton Hall University found that fans don't
necessarily agree, at least not yet.
According to the poll, Seventy-two percent of fans said they wouldn't
attend a sporting event until coronavirus vaccines are developed.
Twelve percent said they would if social distancing could be
maintained. Only 13 percent said they'd feel safe attending as they
did in the past. Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti recently added that
he didn't see sports happening in L.A.
until at least 2021, although he didn't rule out a return without
fans. But the final word may be left to the governors in each state.
And if California is any indication, there's a good possibility the
NFL won't start on time.
A well-known athlete just asked me, football player, he expects to
come back. I said I would I would move very cautiously in that
expectation. So, look, I'm not here to second guess anybody, but I am
here to say this. Our decision on that basis, at least here in the
state of California, will be determined by the facts.
What it really comes down to is what makes owners, athletes and fans
comfortable. Will they feel better if there's a therapeutic
treatment? Or will they require a vaccine before they feel safe
enough to attend games in person?
Only time will tell.
We need sports. We need sports badly right now.
We need something to cheer for, something to get excited about,
something to be communal about.
And, you know, when the time comes and everything's safe, I'm sure
we'll do it.