Ethiopia is a country famous for being the place where coffee was discovered… nevertheless,
Ethiopians didn’t start drinking it until very recently.
During decades, this country was among the World’s poorest.
But, if you follow VisualPolitik for a long time, you already know that Ethiopia is the
scenario for one of the biggest miracles of our decade.
In the latest decades, Ethiopia has been growing at a 10% rate year after year.
Fashion brands like Calvin Klein or H&M have already some big textile worshops in this
country.
Lots of Chinese factories are been built at the outskirs of Addis Abeba.
But Chinese are not the only ones interested in Ethiopian economy!
At the beginning of this year 2019, Hyunday opened their first assembly center here.
In other words, more and more Ethiopians are stepping out of poverty every day.
But hold on just a second because this is not the actual Ethiopian miracle!
You see, til the year 2018, the economy was doing good but the political system pretty
much sucked.
They had an authoritarian system similar to that of China: one party, censorship and never-ending
harassment to ethnic minorities.
But, beating the odds, all of this changed from one day to the other thanks to this man
you see on the screen: ABIY AHMED ALI, the brand new Ethiopian prime minister.
And I say beating the odds because ABIY AHMED ALI was the last person you would imagine
to be a reformist.
He was an army general and a member of the government party: The Ethiopian People’s
Liberation Front.
Nevertheless, as soon as this man put his sole on the government palace, he started
rocking the boat.
From one day to the other, he abolished most of the censorship laws, banned the ethnic
harassment made by the army and announced free elections by 2020.
Add to this the peace with neighbouring Eritrea and a liberalization agenda that sounds like
heaven to international investors.
Yes, my dear viewers, remember his name because he has high chances to get a Peace Novel Price
sooner than later.
Definitely, he already deserves it much more than many others who already got it.
But wait a minute because not everything is sunshine and rainbows.
Yes, on the paper, the intentions of this politicians couldn’t sound better.
If he achieves everything he wants, he would become the next Nelson Mandela.
But, as we always say here… things are much more complex than what they seem.
Ethiopia's Amhara state chief killed amid regional coup attempt
Yes, you heard this right!
Democratic transitions are never easy.
Specially given that Ethiopia had already a political elite enjoying lots of privileges
and more than 13 different tribes.
We are talking about an enormous country, with more than 100 million inhabitants and
more than 13 languages.
This is a test to ABIY AHMED real intentions.
With so much internal opposition and so many ethnic tension, it is very tempting to go
back to the good old dictatorship.
At the end of the day, tyrants can deal with all this things way easier.
So the question now is…
To what extent is ABIY AHMED willing to respect human rights?
Can Ethiopia become an actual democracy?
Or maybe it is too hard to resist the temptation of becoming an authoritarian leader?
Today we are going to answer to all of these questions but, before we do, let’s take
a look back at the history.
THE COUNTRY OF THE THREE REVOLUTIONS
Many of you associate Ethiopia with Rastafarians.
As you know, Bob Marley and his accolades practiced a religion that praised the king
HAILE SELASSIE, the Ethiopian emperor.
No offense to the Rastafarians but Mr. SELASSIE was an absolute monarch that ruled Ethiopia
with an iron fist.
An, as it happens many times with absolute monarchs and authoritarian leaders… he didn’t
die in bed.
In the year 1975, the DERG guerrilla seized power and they killed him.
This was the first Ethiopian revolution.
DERG was a Marxist-leninist group that governed the country during the 80s.
In this time, they collectivized the land, nationalized all the companies and ended with
half a million of opponents.
Thus, Ethiopia suffered one of their worst starvations.
And this explains why, in 1991, after a bloody civil war, the Ethiopian People’s Liberation
Front took power.
This was the second Ethiopian revolution.
But make no mistake!
The country didn’t become a democracy at all.
They went from die hard communism to a moderate, China-style one.
This explains the good relationship between these two countries and the economic growth
they started to have.
But pay attention because now Xander is going to tell us the really interesting part of
the story.
But pay attention because now Eric is going to tell us the really interesting part of
the story.
You see, Ethiopia has more than 100 million inhabitans and more than 13 tribes.
These tribes are not very friendly with one another.
And this is why the constitution is so special.
To start with, Ethiopia is the only country in the planet, alongside with Liechtenstein,
where the right to secesion is contemplated.
This means that, theoretically, each of these 9 regions you see on the map could have a
referendum and become independent.
And, of course, each of those tribes have their own political party.
Most of these political parties are part of this grand coalition called Ethiopian People’s
Liberation Front.
And all these parties have seats in the parliament.
All of this means that Ethiopian politics are not a debate between right and left wing
or conservatives versus liberals but a discussion among different tribes.
And you might wonder… does this system work?
Can Ethiopian tribes coexist together in peace and harmony?
The answer is no way!
First of all, this right to secesion is just a theory.
Each time a region wanted to secede had to face the army.
And, as you can already imagine, not all tribes are equally powerful.
From all those 13 ethnic groups, only 3 call the shots: the OROMO, the AMHARA and the TIGRIYANS.
The rest are suffering constant human rights violations.
This includes forced displacements, land confiscations and, of course, massive killings.
For example, the Somalians living in Ethiopia have been sufferint neverending harassment
from paramilitary groups.
And both the government as the army pretended this never existed.
Add to this the activist and journalist that were exiled.
If this was not enough, Ethiopia was in permanent war with Eritrea.
So yes, the economy was doing good but the politics couldn’t go worse.
And here is when the third Ethiopian revolution came in.
Let’s have a look at it, shall we?
TITLE: THE ETHIOPIAN ROCKSTAR
I’m gonna say it again: remember this name because he might become a peace novel price:
ABIY AHMED ALI.
Til the year 2018, he was what we call an ‘APPARATCHIK’, this is a party man: an
army general that belonged to the OROMO tribe, which, as we said before, is one of the ruling
ethnic groups.
Nevertheless, as soon as he started his administration, he has unleashed one of the most ambitious
reformist agendas in history.
In just one year, he has signed peace with Eritrea, he has abolished censorship and he
has stopped harassment from the army.
Aren’t you impressed yet?
So wait because I haven’t finished!
He has already announced free elections for 2020, he has managed to get a woman as the
President and he is passing the biggest liberalizations ever seen in Ethiopia.
Ethiopia to install 4G network ahead of telecoms liberalization
With all of this, it is easy to understand why he has become the new African rockstar.
In fact, we can already talk about the ABIYMANIA.
And, believe me, everything I will say here is not a hyperbole at all.
Some religious groups already claim that he is the Messiah.
In Eritrea, the former die hard enemy of Ethiopia, there are already mothers naming their children
after him.
And the Ethiopian media is living a big time renaissance.
Satire is flourishing in Ethiopia
Brand new newspapers, brand new TV shows and old journalist coming back to the country.
The pictures you see now are part of some comedy sketch that you can find on YouTube.
For the first time in history, people can make fun of politicians, including the prime
minister.
And it seems that next year, a Ethiopian broadcaster will start a late night show similar to The
Daily Show.
All of this is pretty normal in a country like America or UK but it is a giant step
here.
But OK, OK…
I know what you are going to say now!
It is very easy to allow free press when the media loves you.
But… what happens when you have die hard critics?
Well… let’s cover that!
FREEDOM HAS ITS RISKS
2019 has surprised Ethiopians with a terrible draught that brought many regions back to
starvation.
Unemployment is near 20% and many young people are in a desperate situation.
If this was not enough, the old guard is far from happy with this third revolution.
So look at what happened in June 2019.
Ethiopian army chief killed by bodyguard and regional leader dead in coup attempt
The Amhara state president, Ambachew Mekonnen, and his adviser were shot dead and the state’s
attorney general was wounded in Amhara’s capital
Basically, a man from the military who belonged to the AMHARA tribe decided to kill the governor
of his region.
According to him, ABIY AHMED was ending all the privileges his tribe used to enjoy.
So he organized a coup d’etat to separate from the rest of the country.
As you can imagine, the central government didn’t wait a minute for retaliation.
Ethiopia security forces kill alleged coup leader
But we are not talking about a military answer only!
During almost 2 days, central government cut the internet.
Just like that.
During almost 48 hours, Ethiopians couldn’t access to Internet.
This way, they couldn’t visit any media or any critical opinion against the government.
Yes, I can see what you are thinking: freedom of speech didn’t last really long here.
But if you thought this was the only problem ABIY had, you’d better think again.
Ethiopia referendum: Dozens killed in Sidama clashes
With so much freedom, the SIDAMA tribe, one of those groups that have been always marginalized
by the mainstream, decided to call for an independence referendum.
They didn’t want to become an independent country on its own right.
But they wanted to have, at least, their own autonomous region.
This is what happens when you give freedom to the people!
Then, people wants to use that freedom!
And in this moment is when the guys from the Ethiopian government said.
‘Oh my god!
All this tribes with their referéndums are such a pain in the ass!
OK, so you, Sidama guys, what do you want?...
A referendum?
OK, fine.
But look… can you wait at least 5 months?
Just 5 months?’
And then, the Sidama tribe said: ‘Oh, sure, five months!
You totally sound like the previous governments!
You talk about democracy, freedom and all the sweet stuff but then you go fucking around
again with the referendums!
You can take your 5 months waiting time and stick them into your ass!!!!’
And this is how violent protests emerged with more than 30 dead people.
So yes, I totally understand what you are going to say now.
This Abiy Ahmed guy is more disappointing than the latest Tarantino movie.
But do you know what?
Sometimes, history can be really beautiful.
Ethiopia to hold autonomy referendum for ethnic Sidama in November
Yes, after so much hesitation, Abiy Ahmed is really willing to allow that referendum.
And, with Internet already working again, it seems that freedom of speech is very alive
in Ethiopia.
For example, while we were preparing this video, we found some English speaking Ethiopian
newspapers.
And we could find news like this one.
Sidama unrest death toll rises to 34
I know, this is really bad news.
This is the kind of news that don’t make a nice portray of the government.
But, precisely, the fact that an Ethiopian newspaper can say bad things about the government
is, indeed, a good thing!
Good luck finding something similar in China!
For a better understanding, DEUTSCHE WELLE, which is a radio similar to BBC but in Germany,
has already started broadcasting in Amharic language.
And look at the kind of talk shows they are already hosting!
Discussion: Country risk They began to hear warnings that Ethiopia
was endangered as a country.
They say this by trying to justify their fears that a country is at risk.
Again, these are not good news.
And we don’t really know what are they discussing in this talk show because we couldn’t find
any Ethiopian who could help us.
By the way, if there is some native Amharic speaker watching this video, feel free to
write us an email!
But the truth is that, freedom of speech really seems to be flourishing here.
And, so far, Abiy is keeping his promise of free elections by 2020.
Of course, this will not be an easy thing.
First of all, Ethiopia will have to update their census, which is extremely hard.
Remember that, despite the growth, this is still a very poor country.
And the government has a lot of challenges on the horizon, starting by the huge unemployment
rate.
So now the question goes to you…
Shall Ethiopia be able to hold those elections by 2020?
How many times will be Abiy tempted again to go back to authoritarianism?
Is Ethiopia ready for democracy?
Please, leave your answer on the comment section below.
Also visit our friends from RECONSIDER MEDIA.COM, the podcast that provided the vocals on this
episode that were not mine.
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