At the present, there are 48 volcanoes on the planet which are actively erupting.
As we enter the new year, several of my viewers have asked, "which volcanoes could erupt in
2022?"
Since several news outlets have published inaccurate lists of this nature and included
volcanoes which are highly unlikely to erupt in the new year such as Mount Hood and Vesuvius,
I decided to make this list with a higher degree of accuracy based on my knowledge as
a volcanologist.
To be included in this list, a volcano must be showing above background levels of activity
compared to previous years and have in my opinion greater than a 10% chance of erupting
in 2022.
In 2022, the most dangerous volcano on the planet could produce another volcanic eruption.
I am referring to the Taal volcano in the Philippines, which is located in a densely
populated metropolitan area south of Manilla.
Taal may appear to be a small volcano but in reality, it is quite large.
Its edifice is not merely the island within the vast lake it sits in, but also the lake
itself which formed through several ancient caldera collapses.
Taal seems to produce sequences of eruptions in a relatively short timespan before becoming
dormant for a period of several decades.
Examples include: 1873-1878, 1903-1911, 1965-1977, and 2020-present.
Thus, since Taal produced two eruptive series in 2021, and it is still outputting high amounts
of sulfur dioxide indicating a shallow body of magma, it is likely to erupt again in the
near future.
On the Big Island of Hawaii, the Kilauea volcano has been near constantly erupting for several
decades.
However, one of the other volcanoes on the island, Mauna Loa, has been at an increased
alert level ever since 2019.
Although the vast Mauna Loa shield volcano has not erupted since 1984, representing its
longest known period between distinct eruptions, there is reasoning to suspect that it could
erupt in 2022.
On October 10th of 2021, a magnitude 6.2 earthquake hit offshore of the big island of Hawaii.
At first, this large earthquake did not seem notable as it caused no severe damage.
However, this earthquake triggered secondary activity at Mauna Loa.
A recent research paper looked through the history of Mauna Loa's recent volcanic eruptions
and determined that one way to predict an eruption at some point in the next 7 to 8
years is to search for signs of earthquake decollement.
In a manner of speaking, these large earthquakes sort of unkink a hose if the hose was to represent
the supply of magma to Mauna Loa.
Thus, a volcanic eruption is likely at some point in the next 8 years as decollement has
occurred.
In Iceland, the nation's most active volcano is Grimsvotn which has erupted 18 times in
the last 100 years.
As a glacier covered stratovolcano, its eruptions are often preceded by large glacial floods
termed jökulhlaups.
In 2021, two large jökulhlaups were triggered due to increased fumarole related activity,
indicating unusual activity underneath the volcano.
One occurred on September 1st and another occurred on December 6th.
The latter of these output a cubic kilometer of water, and the volcano was temporarily
raised to an alert level of orange.
Instruments which determine how much the edifice of Grimsvotn has been uplifted due to the
intrusion of shallow magma indicate that levels have surpassed those which were reached before
its last eruption in 2011.
Off the coast of Sicily, the island of Vulcano is a beautiful volcanic island which contains
two small calderas.
It contains a highly active volcano which has not erupted since 1890.
Yet, throughout the latter half of 2021 it has been at a yellow or orange alert level.
Due to the intrusion of a shallow body of magma, record fumarole activity has occurred
at its summit, giving off the appearance of a sustained plume of material.
Evacuations were ordered for part of the island due to near lethal concentrations of toxic
gas, and the center of Vulcano is recording measurable uplift.
Thus, Vulcano is one of the most likely volcanoes to produce an explosive eruption in 2022.
The most likely volcano to produce an eruption in 2022 is Geldingadalir, which is part of
the Krysuvik volcanic system in Iceland.
As of the writing of this video, magma is a mere 1600 meters beneath the surface, and
it is continuing to get shallower every day.
At its current rate of moving upwards at 130 meters a day, an eruption can be expected
around January 11th of 2022.
Such a new eruption will either occur at Geldingadalir, or form a series of vents in close proximity
to it, ejecting fountains of lava and building new spatter cones.
Volcanoes which barely missed this top 5 list that could also produce an eruption in 2022
include Morne Watt in Dominica, Pelee in Martinique, and Ruapehu in New Zealand.
I hope that you enjoyed this video.
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