When it comes to China what's top of mind this week. I think it's you know I think the trade talks are very very
important in the very near term because I think obviously these Chinese are seen to have been disappointing in terms of the
scale of their purchases of U.S. products. It's good that the two sides are talking. I think that's what the markets would
take is a positive. And when we look at Chinese asset markets the moment any positive could be very helpful.
Yeah this is coming on time as I mentioned before that people are showing a little bit less I guess a risk averse when it
comes to China markets. What needs to happen for this kind of trade to to play out.
I think if we just came out without any contentious issues and the two sides of talks continue to try and build on progress has
been made in the current administration and divided. That would be very helpful. And I think given the asset markets in China is
so beaten up over recent months there's a lot of people attempts to buy on any even kind of neutral news out of these
discussions. What about the data. Are you seeing or are you expecting any
kind of signs of turnaround in the fourth quarter. If not what is that going to mean for markets moving forward.
I think for the market if we just had data that came in in line with expectations that would be results. Considering the
backdrop of the recent I would say six to eight weeks. So if the data comes in a line with expectations it just takes all of
those issues away. But the worry could be that retail sales in particular were disappointed. Downside and also activity in the
property market is very difficult to gauge. So that could be a mess there as well. But I would say that come in somewhere close
to current expectations that we'll be seen as a positive. I want to kind of talk a bit more about the vault. We've seen
the bond markets of late as well. Just just looking at where rates are. And I'm still seeing a sub 160 for the US tenure.
Does that make sense to you Gary. Given just the inflation concerns that we're seeing. And at what point do you think
that's actually going to derail the equity rallies. We've seen ISE. I think that's why I think it's crazy. But you know the
markets continue to believe in the Fed's advice. This is transitory that we're going to see more noise. I think this week
out the Fed speeches same please gauge this is transitory but it is such a big missed last week on the inflation number that they
said it was transitory when inflation was coming in at 5. But this is a six handle on the CPI inflation number and possibly
likely to go higher. So yeah the Fed's holding the market together the moment we may stick around 150 160 level but I
think we should be closer to 2. You're here looking as gold as a hedge. Why gold in particular.
It really has struggled of late maybe up to recently when you start to see it defending some of the gains against this kind of
inflationary backdrop. But we've also seen things like value stocks crypto for example actually show a little bit more of
that deflationary kind of trades. Why gold then Gary. Yeah. You know gold never quite performs where people expected
to expect it to kick in earlier. Well we've got an inflation problem but history tells us it takes a while for the market to
absorb the moves and to become a believer. I like to get in early. I don't mind suffering a bit a lot as in the debt. But I
think that the metal comfortably gets back to 2000 within the next three to six months given the direction of past inflation
at the moment. Do you think that markets have fully digested just the
inflationary pressure to me. Everyone's saying that six point two percent last week from US CPI was kind of the sticker shock
that that stunned the world. Do you think we fully kind of expressed that in markets now. There's potential regime change.
I don't think we have. I think we just want to believe in what we've seen over the last 15 years that inflation goes can only
go down and that the policymakers kind of always get it right. And I just feel that the policy makers are not up with a cane
that behind the curve in terms of controlling this inflation. For sure there's some transitory issues inside those inflation
numbers. But remember if the Fed hits its target of say two to two and a half percent inflation that means interest rates have
to be two percentage points higher than where they are today. And I think that's challenging for markets.
All right. In terms of Marcus what were you most kind of I guess excited about these days given the fact that you have the U.S.
equity markets that go from strength to strength multiples starting to look a little bit more positive to China but where
else do you look at the I think people are looking for better value if they're going
to be holding equities here. I think that the U.S. is stretched but it's been stretched for some time. And valuation doesn't
tell you much about future performance. I think people have got a positive view now of Japan where we've seen both school
support and probably consumer confidence coming back strongly. RTS relief from the Covid you're seeing a lot more positive news
about the U.K. which I think has gotten a competitive exchange rate. And again where Covid has been overcome and we're seeing
good rebound in the smaller markets. You know we've still playing I would say commodity play in the case of Russia and
Vietnam. Strong story with a big fiscal boost coming up in the next year.