The Korean War is still the world's longest-running conflict. Though the
fighting ended through a ceasefire in the summer of 1953, the warring nations never reached a true
peace treaty. Because of that, North Korea still officially remains at war. While many might assume
that the South Korean government is the number one enemy of North Korea, the North Koreans have
a lot of beef with other countries as well. The beef between North Korea and Japan goes
back all the way to the Korean War. During this time, though Japan did not send combat
troops to the peninsula, the country did serve as the main logistics base for the
US and other allied forces. Understandably, North Korea was not too happy about this.
Straining relations even further with Japan was the fact that North Korean agents would
routinely go into the country to kidnap Japanese citizens. Even worse than having its own citizens
kidnapped from their homes is the constant threat posed by North Korea’s ballistic
missiles tests and nuclear weapons programs. These two weapons programs put the safety of
all of East Asia at risk. Japan simply seeks to remain a peaceful nation especially since after
the end of World War Two the Japanese vowed to never go to war again. But the North Korean
government does not care about sacred vows, state sovereignty, or who cares about their provocative
acts. All they care about is regime survival. But in a situation where North Korea finally
crosses the line with Japan, say threatening them with nuclear weapons or kidnapping the President,
and Japan was to go to war with them, who would win in such a conflict?
Let’s first take a look at what Japan would be facing in an all-out conflict with North Korea.
The North Korean military is quite a force to be reckoned with despite coming from such
a small nation with few natural resources. The military is known as the Korean People’s Army
and is made up of five branches: the Ground Force, Air Force, Navy, Strategic
Missile Force, and Special Operations Force. Their Ground Force, or army, is one of the largest
in the world coming in at over 950,000 active-duty personnel. Military service is compulsory in North
Korea meaning every able-bodied man must serve for ten years and women for seven. Those that
go to college have to serve less. Because of this mandatory service,
there are millions of trained soldiers in what is called Worker-Peasant Red Guard units. These
units are compulsory for teenagers before they enter the military and for veterans once they are
discharged. They take on a role much similar to the US National Guard in that they receive annual
training and assist the military when necessary. The equipment that the army fields is vast and
most of it was manufactured in the 1950s through the 1970s as either Chinese or Soviet in origin,
with some licenses being granted to produce local copies of this equipment. For instance,
most North Korean infantrymen are armed with aging AK-47 rifles and while the North
Korean government claims there has been significant progress in creating a modern
and wholly North Korean battle rifle there have been little public indications of such.
The army also possesses thousands of tanks but most of these are outdated Soviet technology. One
of their main tanks, the T-54/55 and the T-62, is decades old and nowhere comparable to the designs
of modern tanks. These same tanks were fielded by the Iraqi government during both the Gulf
War and 2003 invasion of Iraq and were totally annihilated against modern tanks and artillery.
The North Koreans have realized their tank deficiency and have started a modernization
program to create domestic tanks based on the T-72 design known as the Ch'ŏnma-ho and
P'okp'ung-ho. These modern revamps of old designs include new features like
reactive armor that explodes outwards when hit and new turrets for grenade launchers
as well as improved fire control systems. The North Korean army also relies heavily on
its vast array of artillery pieces. They possess thousands of guns in various calibers and they
love their big guns. That is because the smallest caliber artillery piece is a 122mm gun with their
biggest guns being the massive 170mm guns that are said to reach almost a range of 40 miles.
It is said that whenever the army engages in combat the North Koreans want to lay down
a “sea of fire” to support their infantry which means employing them in a classic World War Two
style artillery bombardment which defers from the precision fires of most of today’s militaries.
The North Korean air force operates almost 800 aircraft spread across various bases with most
of the best fighter jets being concentrated in the south towards the DMZ. Their aircraft fleet
is primarily Soviet technology with their most capable air-to-air fighters being the MiG-29
and MiG-30 fighter aircraft. They also possess potent and combat-tested air-to-ground attack
aircraft like Su-25. The Su-25 was first designed in 1978 and has proven itself on
multiple battlefields around the world including the most recent Russian air campaign over Syria.
Despite their vast fleet, the North Korean air force does not compare at all to the modern
equipment offered by other militaries around the world. That is why if the country was
ever attacked the main strategy for the North is to use its vast array of RADARs
and Surface to Air Missile sites to take down opposing aircraft before they become a threat.
The North Korean navy is the smallest of the five branches coming in at less than 80,000 active-duty
personnel. They operate in two main fleets, the West coast fleet, and the East Coast fleet.
The kind of vessels they operate are primarily small patrol craft and frigates
for their surface fleet. This is what is known as a brown water navy meaning the ships are designed
and operate best close to shore and cannot project power beyond the relative safety of the shore.
Where the North Korean navy really stands out is in its fleet of submarines.
Operating a force of around 72 submarines, it is one of the largest submarine forces in the world.
Though these submarines are aging, ex-Soviet technology, they are deadly quiet since they
operate diesel engines. Diesel engines are quieter than nuclear-powered submarines
though they do have to expose themselves to the surface to recharge their batteries.
Once underwater, they are virtually impossible to detect meaning any surface ships are in great
danger. Their ability to operate effectively and secretly was demonstrated with deadly
effect in 2010 when a North Korean submarine sunk a South Korean warship with the loss of 46 lives.
Of course, the most capable and threatening part of the North Korean military would be
its ballistic missiles and nuclear weapons. These long-range weapons are the pride and joy
of the North Korean government. They are meant to project power abroad and Western military
thinkers believe the North Koreans intend to use these weapons as a last resort in case
of the catastrophic defeat of the military or potentially as a crippling first strike.
Though Japan is out of range of most of the North Korean medium-range ballistic missile threats,
there are still over 50 missiles that could be fired at them. In addition,
North Korea is believed to now have manufactured over 40 nuclear weapons,
though the debate is still out there concerning their ability to miniaturize them enough to place
them on the warhead of one of these missiles. Facing the North Korean military would be
mighty forces of the Japanese Defense Forces as their military is known. Ranked as the fifth
most powerful military in the world, this small yet technologically superior military
is composed of an Army, Air Force, and Navy. The Japanese Army is a feared and much-respected
force around the world. Coming in at a little over 150,000 personnel,
it is the largest branch of the Japanese military. The Army fields some of Asia's most modern and
best equipment like their next-generation Type 10 main battle tank that is equipped with state of
the art armor and gives the crew a full panoramic view of their surroundings. This tank will
eventually replace the older but still capable Type 90 tank used in service since the 1990s.
The Japanese also have a robust, home-grown defense industry that is constantly creating new
and improved weapons for its forces such as the Type 89 assault rifle which is the standard issue
rifle for its ground troops. The Japanese also produce a variety of potent anti-aircraft guns
and armored troop transports all modeled off the US and NATO-style designs to better work together.
The Japanese Navy is incredibly deadly as well. They operate a fleet of over 250
ships making their navy the fourth largest in the world by tonnage. These ships encompass a
wide variety of platforms to include coastal patrol craft and minesweepers for homeland
defense as well as 26 destroyers and several helicopter carriers to project power abroad.
The Japanese navy is also a great asset in defeating the North Korean missile threat.
Their destroyers are based on the US Aegis system. Aegis is the world's leading
ballistic missile defense system, combining a series of high-powered RADARs, illuminators,
and computer programs to accurately detect missile threats early and defeat them well before they hit
their intended targets. The fact that the Japanese can deploy over two dozen of these
ships in such a small area like the Sea of Japan helps nullify the threat to the Japanese homeland.
The Air Force also works hand-in-hand with the Navy to defeat North Korean missiles.
The Air Force operates a robust network of RADAR sites and manned observation posts all throughout
the archipelago. These sites are crucial in detecting missiles as soon as they launch
and then forwarding that information to deployed ships and missile batteries stationed at home.
In addition to their anti-air capabilities, the Japanese operate one of the most technologically
advanced air fleets in the world. They boast almost 800 aircraft of which over
300 are fourth and fifth-generation fighter aircraft like the F-15 and F-35
Joint Strike Fighter. They also operate several electronic warfare platforms such as the E-767,
which give the air force an early warning for airborne threats and can help pass information
more quickly and securely than the North Koreans who do not possess such a capability.
In determining who would win in an all-out war between North Korea and Japan,
it would depend on where it was fought. The most likely scenario would be an invasion of North
Korea by Japan since the North Korean navy simply cannot conduct large scale amphibious operations
on foreign shores. The Japanese do have such a capability in their newly created marine brigade,
designed as a quick reaction force to defend its far-flung islands, but this of course would have
to be scaled up if they wanted to invade an entire country and not just a small island.
But suppose the Japanese were able to scale their amphibious operations and get their entire army
ashore. Once there, they would be facing an army almost ten times their size! Not to mention the
millions in reserves that can be brought up. The only advantage here would be that North Korea
deploys much of its forces in fixed positions along the DMZ with South Korea. A well-planned
amphibious assault behind all of these defenses might just give Japan the edge it needs to negate
the obvious advantage in North Korean numbers. Of course, Japan also has the advantage as the
technologically superior force. Their anti-missile systems would surely protect the homeland and
invasion force from North Korean fire. Their tanks, planes, and even infantry weapons are
also superior. However, as seen on battlefields of the past like the Eastern Front in World War Two
even small numbers of vastly superior equipment will eventually be overcome by sheer numbers.
The last factor to consider is the individual soldiers themselves. In Japan, the military is a
100 percent volunteer force while in North Korea the military is forced onto everybody. Once in,
service in North Korea is marked by brutality from superiors and a chronic lack of food and supplies.
In fact, it is not uncommon for completely healthy young men to be left so weak and
hungry after basic training that their parents have to pick them up and nurse
them back to health before rejoining the army. The North Korean military also hands out brutal
punishments to its soldiers. Beatings and rape are common in their formations
with fear being the primary motivating factor getting soldiers through the day.
Compare that to the professional Japanese military that treats all its soldiers with respect
and one can reasonably expect that once North Koreans see just how better their lives might be,
many would simply give up and switch to the other side.
All things considered, a war between North Korea and Japan would be brutal and a close call.
North Korea simply has a massive amount of people and equipment to overcome while fighting on their
home territory. The Japanese face the difficulty of fighting a campaign away from their shores
and in replacing losses of people and material quickly as casualties mount. If Japan could
conduct a swift and lightning-fast campaign that bypasses most of the fixed North Korean
positions they could win a stunning victory. But if the Japanese lose the element of surprise the
favor is pointed towards the North Koreans who can mobilize an entire nation prepared for war.