on Monday North Korea launched two short-range projectiles office east
coast it was the regime's first weapons test of the year and the return to its
provocative stance after three months of relative calm why now is the question as
countries around the world grapple with the spread of the novel coronavirus to
help us break down this issue we have dr. mark P berry independent analyst in
New York who has been following North Korea issues for the past three decades
we also have joining us dr. Raymond Pacheco Pardo reader in international
relations at King's College London thank you for joining us now dr. berry let's
start with you with your reaction you've always had a niggling feeling about
these tests that the timing of this test in particular surprise you well we we've
been wondering why they've been so quiet for the last couple of months but I may
take a somewhat unpopular view which is that the reason for these tests always
relate to what's going on internally in North Korea and we have to see it in
terms of the shake-up of some senior personnel the replacing of the foreign
minister in late December and then just a few days ago the scolding and I
believe replacement of the head of the organization and guidance Department so
if you're Kim jong-un you're concerned about internal alignment and discipline
first and foremost and the military exercises fall into that guideline first
and foremost but observing the media Kim jong-un's surely senses that the world
thinks oh North Korea must be totally encumbered and overwhelmed with
coronavirus concerns and although all his generals were wearing masks in the
pictures that were released yesterday the reality is that he probably was
trying to show to the world and to the president as well that we are here and
we're going to be continuing our testing especially since you Americans have
announced a postponement of or joint military exercises which are
normally scheduled for March right so as usual you think that is the form of
messaging well what about you doctor Pacheco Pardo do you agree with this
view that this test take you by surprise well I think that there is a domestic
component as was just mentioned we should also remember that when a spring
and it comes North Korea normally increases the number of tests so as the
weather gets better and North Korea will continue to carry on more tests I think
there's not a component this time around which is it is one year removed from the
unsuccessful Connery summit and over the weekend will reduce all military rules
even of South Korean the u.s. announced that they were going to cancel or
postpone at the very least that their own military drills so I think there's
also this component reminding the u.s. at one year after the Hanoi summit North
Korea is still here so unless there's diplomacy hey at some point over the
next few months North Korea will continue with the tests right yes the
timing of this test is quite interesting because as you mentioned right now it
does come a little after year after the Hanoi summit broke down between Kim
jong-un and President Donald Trump and as usual this firing does seem to be a
cry for attention so dr. Barry what do you think North Korea wants this time
around always the seeking of attention is to engage the United States in a way
that it can balance in my view the enormous pressure from China because in
the long run the DPRK the more it relies on China the
more it risks a progressive loss of economic and political sovereignty so
the United States is extremely important and always has been but especially in
this age of President Xi Jinping and the the emergence of a very strong Chinese
hegemonic power in the region because Fresno Trump has met with
kim jongwan three times and perhaps no one else if elected in November will do
so although Mr Sanders had said he would Kim jong-un knows he must continue to
get in the American attention furthermore the president seems to have
made it clear according to news reports that he would not have a summit with Kim
jong-un between now and November and there are unconfirmed reports that the
president's senior staff are getting messages to the north that there may not
even be summits if the president is re-elected so it's conversely the u.s.
putting attend pressure on the on the north but I think that the kiss of death
is for the North Korea to just become invisible and that's what was happening
in the past two months the the lack of the testing was in effect and in
visibility right and dr. Chekhov had a do you think this strategy will work do
you think the leaders of the US and China will give their full attention or
the the level of attention that Kim jong-un wants to the north right now
with you know the spread of this corona virus and other things going on
domestically as well I think it's unlikely that in the months to come much
attention is going to attention to North Korea we have seen how the US has more
fun little bit present from cousin phone TV with the Taliban for example has more
fun to try to reach a deal with every China which he says is going to be sank
very soon there's also talks about potential negotiations with the European
Union with Japan as well there are many foreign policy issues catching the
attention of the US was really the most important issue are the elections so so
for the next few months this is all going to be all about domestic politics
and any foreign policy issue is going to be linked to the development in the
Democrat primary but also in the presidential election that will be
taking place in in November so if the magnet is going to be difficult for for
North Korea to actually be top of the agenda in the US and I would say it's
going to be very similar in in in China yes
China is also trying to do with the corner by Rose is fine to improve
relations with the US after this phase one deal that both countries are about
to sign so I think that over the next month we're going to see very little
progress unless a North Korea's willing to make a major concession or prescient
rom decided that he wants to play the North Korea card during the election by
maybe signing some sort of a phase 1 deal as the November election approaches
I see well kim dongwan said in december last year that the world will see a new
strategic weapon in the future and thus this latest launch thoughts berry
indicate any progress in that regard
literally before going on the air one of the better analysts dr. Ann kit panda
said that the photos that were just released this morning indicated that
there were multiple rocket launchers essentially a kind of a long-range
artillery not really missiles per se they've done this before but nonetheless
they've done something and so it's the beginning of a cycle of attention and as
dr. Ramon Pacheco Pardo says we don't know to what extent North Korea will try
to grasp the attention away from the president from the domestic campaign
trail but I think as I say North Korea is in a position where it has to remain
high on the agenda of the United States and of the European powers in China and
Russia because of its small size and small power as a state and this is a
difficult year because it's very difficult to make progress when the
President does not want to take the chance or risk of a deal falling through
absolutely under no circumstances would the president want to do that so I don't
see this test really as a threat as much as just sending a mild message that
we're here and keep an eye on us I see and dr. Barry how do you think
Chinese President Xi Jinping would to this test will it get much attention
in China I think less than we're giving it here in the United States and I think
China has to worry about the recovery of its economy the global supply chain has
taken quite a hit it's going to be harder to get a lot of our high-tech
electronic components over the coming weeks until they ramp up the supply
chain and so I think that's at the moment President Xi is main concern but
North Korea has a way of also making sure that China is paying attention to
its concerns and needs but some of that is hidden and we don't see exactly what
goes on but we may see the the ripple impact of that as time unfolds see and
before we go from doctor Pacheco Padre how should South Korea's
top office that's president one day and specifically handled this sudden
outburst from the north well president s always made clear that his policies to
create a sustainable a diplomatic process with North Korea that this
process was going to have ups and downs and clearly we're in a moment where
relations between both Korea's between the u.s. and North Korea are not good
they are not as bad as they were in 2017 so we have improved instance but they
are not good we have stolen the diplomatic process so let me South Korea
should continue to do is to try to press for diplomacy a because the chances that
at some point the US and North Korea will rekindle diplomacy are quite high
probably after the November election it could be before or after the November
election but be also because this is the policy of the president has the support
of a large majority of the South Korean population of the most liberals but many
conservatives as well they think that engagement is the way to go
so I think this is what he should continue to try and if the process
continuous a completely collapses at some point well start where you can say
that they eat right and it is on North Korea to have made this an unsuccessful
process so I think for the time being and a
president moon should continue to press for for diplomacy I see well thank you
very much for your time today gentlemen I'm afraid we're going to have to leave
our discussion here it's been a great discussion and again thank you so much
dr. berry for joining us from New York dr. Pacheco Pardo all the way from
London and that's where they're going to have to leave it to our viewers around
the world thank you very much for joining us today and we'll be back
tomorrow at the same time for more global insights from experts around the
world have a lovely day or evening wherever you are bye-bye