The last hoorah…this is a term I’ve coined…no pun intended….a
long time ago. It’s Bitcoin and crypto’s final parabolic cycle before regulations
put a chokehold on the asset class or a full on economic collapse tears everything down….So
when will the last hoorah begin? What will cause it? What is it going to look like?? Well find out
the answer to those questions in just over 10 minutes, because it’s time for Chico Crypto…
Last hoorah when will it begin? Well to know that we first need to gauge when this bear cycle’s
bitcoin bottom will arrive. As the last hoorah begins after the Bitcoin bottom.
And I’ve already predicted this all the way back in May based on Bitcoin’s previous cycles.
Let’s watch now of when I think this Bitcoin bottom will arrive.
Based on the previous cycle’s peak prices to bottom prices,
I predicted this cycle’s Bitcoin bottom would arrive in late
September. As of today…that is only 58 days away. Less than 2 months…
And a negative RED September makes sense based on monthly history. As we can see from
Bitcoin performance by month…September is notoriously bad for Bitcoin.
Since 2011, 8 of the 11 Septembers have been RED. 73 percent of the time.
And the average drawdown, when it is a red September, is 12.5 percent!!
So what will be the price of Bitcoin at this Bottom? Well I also predicted this
in my video back in May based on previous cycle’s…let’s listen in…
The Bitcoin bottom price will be around $14,500 and come around September 23rd of this year…but
I like to take a holistic view of this bottom and there was one on chain metric
I didn’t analyze in that video. This on chain metric is Bitcoin’s
realized price. From this article we can see what the realized price is.
Realized price measures the average price at which each Bitcoin
in circulation was last bought. In other words, it measures the market's cost basis. This is a
very influential level because it establishes the barrier between profitability and losses.
Checking out the realized price chart throughout Bitcoin's history, we can see generally Bitcoin
is above it. However, during deep market sell offs towards the end of bear markets,
the price of Bitcoin falls below realized price, though not far below it and not for long.
Soooo…realized price is a great indicator of nearing the bottom…so
what has happened in previous cycles?
Well @therationalroot on Twitter has a great chart which shows the realized price,
and how long Bitcoin stayed below it during the previous cycles. In 2014 we can see
BTC was below the realized price for a substantial amount of time,
there were a few attempts of a breakout above it…but they failed. Adding up the total time
under realized price, we come to 274 days. 9 months BTC was under this important metric.
In the 2018 bear trend, Bitcoin was under the realized price for a
much shorter time. Only 133 days before it jumped back above…
As we can see from their chart for this bear trend in 2022,
we dipped below the realized price on June 13th, and spent 35 days below,
but by July 19th we were above it and spent a little less than a week above it.
Although…as of this week, we have once again dipped below the realized price.
Which is a sign we haven’t hit the true bottom, and this bear trend isn’t over…
So are we going to spend 133 days, or even 274 more days under the realized price like the cycles
before!? Well actually no, I think it’s going to be much shorter as there is a trend there.
Days below realized price is decreasing with each cycle.
2014 days under realized price was 274, 2018 days below realized price was 133. That is a reduction
from cycle to cycle of basically 50 percent. I think we will once again have a reduction
of realized price, but not by 50 percent again, I’m thinking more like 35 percent. A
35 percent reduction from last cycle’s 133 days, is 86 days under realized price for this cycle.
So we spent 35 days under realized price up to July 19th, and just dipped back below
it as of yesterday. That means we have 51 more days to go under the realized price.
Guess where that would put this Bitcoin bottom based on realized price?
Around September 15th of this year…close to my original prediction of September 23rd.
So based on my TA, Tyler Analysis, we can assume the market bottom is coming
sometime in September….leading us up into the last hoorah, the final parabolic cycle…
So let’s talk about the reason I think there will be another parabolic Bitcoin
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So why will there be a last hoorah and final parabolic cycle? Well first we
gotta talk about Tether USDT as it’s the blood of the crypto markets…and
it seems like they aren’t going anywhere and will be around for one more cycle.
Everyone was getting worried that Tether would collapse due to the contagion of Terra Luna,
Celsius and more…but if you look at On Chain Data,
Tether has recovered and has once again retained the dollar peg, after months of being below it…
Which has caused redemptions to Peter out….Tether had mass redemptions during the Terra Luna
collapse, and Celsius debacle that reduced its market cap from over 83 billion, to about 66
billion. But as we can see over the past month, there hasn’t been any redemptions of major size…
As much as I don’t like Tether, as much as I know they are unbacked,
and as much as I think they will cause a mass collapse of crypto. If you want
another parabolic cycle, Tether has to stick around…… for now…but over the next few years,
there time may be running out as regulators zero in…
And that’s what we have to talk about next, regulations that could be coming,
which will hinder cryptocurrencies growth. Will they come before this last hoorah begins,
or will they come later allowing the flood gates to re-open??
Well regarding stablecoins like Tether, there was supposed to be Stablecoin regulation
being voted on soon…but that has been delayed. From this Wall St. Journal article we can see
“Bipartisan Bill to Regulate Stablecoin Is Delayed for at Least Several Weeks” and the article states
“U.S. House lawmakers are delaying consideration of a bipartisan bill to curb potential risks
posed by so-called stablecoins, according to people familiar with the matter, pushing back
a vote on the measure for at least several weeks. That likely delays consideration of the package
until at least September, when Congress is expected to return from its late-summer break.”
Sooo will we have Stablecoin regulation implemented if this bill is voted on and
passed in September?? No, no, no my friends. This is just a bill going through the house.
The Senate needs to vote on it next, the president needs to sign
it….and then it’s implemented sometimes a year or 2 later.
But if we go back to the article, we can see there are some people against it. The article says
“But some regulatory officials and bankers grew uneasy at the speed
with which the bill’s supporters had planned to vote on the measure in committee.
The Independent Community Bankers of America, an influential lobbying force on Capitol Hill,
on Friday called on Ms. Waters to delay consideration of the bill,
citing the need for input from bankers and other stakeholders. Officials at the Securities and
Exchange Commission and other regulators had also lodged concerns about the draft bill.”
So this bill has some work to do, and I wouldn’t expect any stablecoin
regulation to be implemented until at the very least 2024.
But what about other regulations? Like Joe Biden’s executive order on crypto?
Well as we can see the executive order was released on March 9th…and
the order states “Within 1 year of the date of the establishment of the framework required by section
8(b)(i) of this order, key government agencies, shall submit a report to the
President on priority actions taken under the framework and its effectiveness. This report
shall be coordinated through the interagency process described in section 3 of this order.”
Next March, agencies will have their reports on crypto & then
they will put forward priority actions needed to effectively regulate crypto.
That means drafting bills, voting on bills, getting them signed. I would
expect these laws not to come into effect until the very least once again, 2024.
2024 or even later? This will allow time for one last hoorah…
Cheers viewers, I'll see you next time!