It looks like "Creed III is going the distance. It's a franchise movie with big-name stars,
but its box office take is still shattering expectations. How is
this boxing epic punching so high above its weight?
The first two "Creed" movies were released on Wednesdays over the Thanksgiving holiday weekend.
"Creed III," by contrast, opened on a Friday over a weekend with no major holidays. Since
it wasn't burning off demand with a Wednesday launch, it's no shock "Creed III" had a bigger
three-day opening weekend than its predecessors. What's impressive, though, is that "Creed III"
left the five-day hauls of the first two "Creed" films in the dust over just three days with its
staggering $58.4 million take. "Creed II made $56 million over its first five days of release.
"I'm comin' for everything!"
"Creed III" was even further ahead of the first "Creed," which made $42 million in its first five
days. It took 11 days for the first "Creed" to narrowly exceed what "Creed III" amassed in three.
Comparing the opening weekend of "Creed III" to the original "Rocky" movies is a bit trickier
since those movies were released in a drastically different time, but it's worth noting "Creed
III" did nearly five times the $12.1 million debut of the 2006 installment "Rocky Balboa."
"Creed III" was one of the first films released by MGM since Amazon scooped up the legendary
studio. MGM and sister company, Orion Pictures, have released a handful of smaller titles into
theaters since the acquisition, including "Women Talking" and "Bones and All," but "Creed III"
is the first massive MGM release under Amazon ownership. So the movie's opening weekend made
history for Amazon by outgrossing the domestic hauls of every other flick in Amazon history.
That includes not just recent MGM and Orion releases, but all other Amazon Studios films,
including "Manchester by the Sea" and "The Big Sick." To be fair, many of Amazon's previous
theatrical releases were arthouse fare that never played in more than a couple hundred
theaters. "You Were Never Really Here," for instance, was never expected to be a moneymaker
like a "Creed" movie could be. So the success of this sequel opens more doors for Amazon.
The massive debut of "Creed III" demonstrates that Amazon is capable of launching MGM movies
in a big way, and redefines the level of box office success the company's movies can reach.
Sports dramas usually need a little time to warm up at the box office. For example,
you may remember a little movie called "Remember the Titans." That
inspirational classic opened with under $25 million at the weekend box office,
and still pulled in a sizable domestic haul thanks to positive word-of-mouth.
Most sports dramas aren't big franchise fare, so they're less likely to open like movies that
are. This meant that "Creed III," the newest movie in a long-running, storied series, had
no trouble scoring the biggest domestic opening weekend in history for a sports drama. It took
the crown away from the $35.5 million debut of none other than its own predecessor, "Creed II."
No matter how you slice it, it's pretty impressive just how far ahead of all other
sports movies the third "Creed" entry ran in its first three days of release. Previously,
no sports drama ever had cracked $40 million in an opening weekend,
and "Creed III" shattered that mark. "Creed III" even exceeded the entire lifetime
domestic hauls of well-regarded sports dramas like "Invincible" and "Southpaw" in just one weekend.
"A man can only take so much failure."
Michael B. Jordan has been selective about where he shows up, with the actor only headlining two
other theatrical releases, "Just Mercy" and "A Journal for Jordan," since the release of "Creed
II." He's made cameos in other movies with varying degrees of success, including Black Panther:
Wakanda Forever" on the positive side, and "Space Jam: A New Legacy" on the… other side.
"I was just gettin' some popcorn, and then this cat grabbed me."
Except for that one exception – as well as streaming movies like the Tom Clancy
thriller "Without Remorse" – he's generally shown a good deal of shrewdness when it comes
to selecting his projects, which has helped keep him from being too overexposed as a leading man.
With that in mind, Jordan doesn't have a sprawling box office track record to his name. With the
major exception of the first "Black Panther," he's never appeared in a movie that cracked $40 million
on its three-day opening weekend — until "Creed III." In just three days, "Creed III" exceeded
the lifetime grosses of many other theatrical releases Jordan appeared in, such as the 2015
"Fantastic Four" reboot and "Red Tails." While it's clear audiences like Jordan as a presence,
"Creed III" blew away all expectations for how big a Michael B. Jordan star vehicle could go.
In general, "Rocky" movies have been holiday season staples.
While the second and third "Rocky" entries each opened in the summer,
the other original "Rocky" movies all hit theaters in November and December.
It's a timeframe that's served the franchise well, especially since the all-ages appeal
and uplifting spirit of the franchise feels like the perfect thing families can watch
together during the holidays. The first two "Creed" movies also opened over Thanksgiving,
but "Creed III" went in a different direction with its March 2023 release.
It's reasonable to assume that there was some trepidation about an early-spring release,
but even if there was, there turned out to be nothing to worry about. March has
actually become a go-to month for blockbuster hits, with "The Batman" finding success in
2022 and "Captain Marvel" doing the same in 2019, among many others. Release date
traditions served the "Rocky" movies well in the past, but "Creed III" excelling in
March proved that it's okay to do something a little unexpected to throw off your opponents.
Third movies in franchises are tricky. Unlike a second installment, audiences need a little
something more than just "this character is back" to get them into the theater. That's
why many third installments make noticeably less than the second entry in a franchise.
"Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban," [AZZ-kuh-ban] for instance, had the lowest
domestic gross for any "Harry Potter" film until the "Fantastic Beasts" movies came along. And "The
Hangover: Part III" made substantially less in North America than either of its predecessors.
There was reason to assume "Creed III" could suffer the same box office fate as
so many other third installments, especially if you consider it as the ninth movie in the
larger "Rocky" franchise. Yet the film's opening weekend showed a franchise with
lots of gas left in the tank. Barring catastrophic weekend-to-weekend dips,
"Creed III" will have no problem surpassing the lifetime North American hauls of the first
two "Creed" movies, an impressive feat and one that's incredibly rare among third installments.
Since "Black Panther: Wakanda Forever's" massive $181.3 million opening weekend in November 2022,
only two other movies have managed to crack $40 million in their domestic opening weekends:
"Avatar: The Way of Water" and "Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania." Of course,
"M3GAN" and "Cocaine Bear" proved to be surprise sleeper hits, but there
haven't been a ton of tentpole releases to drum up significant opening weekends.
That means "Creed III," scored the third-biggest domestic opening weekend since "Wakanda Forever,"
and the second-biggest single-weekend haul in 2023 to date. Impressively,
"Creed III" managed the 18th-biggest domestic opening weekend for any movie
since the COVID-19 pandemic shut down movie theaters in March 2020,
with many of the titles that surpassed it carrying significantly bigger budgets and marketing spends.
With the original "Rocky" movies, sequels came out at a rapid pace. Across the first
four installments, audiences never had to wait more than three years to see where
Rocky Balboa was going next. This steady pace ended up backfiring on the franchise, though,
when "Rocky V" took so long to make. A five-year wait ended up killing the financial momentum of
this saga, with "Rocky V" making drastically less than its predecessors in North America.
"Rocky Balboa" and "Creed" did fine at the box office despite coming off lengthy hiatuses. If
anything the long waits helped those flicks because they were legacy sequels. A lengthy
wait time gave them their emotional oomph. Traditional "Rocky" sequels,
judging by the original films, needed to be made quickly.
So one might have guessed that "Creed III" arriving nearly five years after "Creed II"
could've tanked the "Creed" movies financially. Instead, "Creed III" once again bucked the trend.
If anything, the wait seems to have made the hearts of moviegoers grow fonder for Adonis Creed.
"Creed III" was never expected to be a lightweight at the box office,
but initial tracking for its opening weekend didn't suggest it would shatter box office
records. Pro Box Office reported at the start of February 2023 that "Creed III" was tracking for a
$25 million to $34 million domestic debut. On the low end, that meant "Creed III" would've opened
considerably beneath its predecessors, though a $34 million take would've at least been ahead
of the first "Creed." As late as one week before its release, Pro Box Office was still predicting
"Creed III" would open as low as $29 million in its first three days of release in North America.
Many industry insiders assumed that there was nowhere to go but down after "Creed II."
Just days before its debut, Deadline predicted "Creed III" would take in $38 to $40 million,
bigger than earlier tracking projections but still nowhere near what "Creed III"
would end up amassing on opening weekend. The sum "Creed III" ended up amassing
was more than double the lowest initial tracking figures for its opening weekend.
The ending of "Creed II" gave Sylvester Stallone an out to leave the franchise behind.
"It's your time."
The film's final moments saw Rocky Balboa finally traveling to Chicago to visit his son,
Rocky Balboa Jr., and grandson, Logan. It was a reunion that suggested that,
despite all the turmoil of the past, Balboa could have a happy future with his loved ones.
Stallone made clear that he wouldn't be returning to the role of Rocky in "Creed
III" in an interview with The Hollywood Reporter, saying the tone of the movie was
darker than what he would have preferred. Variety also noted that Stallone has bad
blood with series producer Irwin Winkler over ownership of the Rocky character,
a sign he might never return to the role that kick started his career.
So there was some question as to how successful "Creed III" would be without Rocky on the poster,
but clearly, it wasn't a problem. Impressively, the film's North America opening weekend even
managed to surpass the opening three-day grosses of every single movie Sylvester Stallone has ever
appeared in with the exception of "Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2." At the end of the day,
"Creed III" didn't just manage to survive without Stallone; it's surpassing the box
office track record of the man who was long the focal point of the franchise.
"Creed III" was the first of an intense slate of movies in March 2023. New installments in the
"Scream," "Shazam!," and "John Wick" franchises are all opening while "Dungeons and Dragons:
Honor Among Thieves" is also prepped to debut at the end of the month. With so many high-profile
motion pictures poised to fight for dollars and the attention of moviegoers in a single month,
it's easy to see a scenario where "Creed III" could have gotten lost in the shuffle.
Perhaps there just wouldn't be room for a boxing drama amidst all the superheroes and assassins.
Instead, "Creed III" opened up with a bang and set a high bar. If anything,
the success of "Creed III" puts added pressure on the fourth "John Wick" to
surpass the box office haul of its predecessors. "Creed III" kicked
off one of the most loaded months in recent memory with impressive style.
Much of the buzz around "Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania" since its release has surrounded
its sharp box office decline, with the feature experiencing the worst second-weekend drop ever
for a Marvel Cinematic Universe movie. The trend continued with the film's third-weekend
decline of 60%, which indicates that the second-weekend drop was no fluke. "Quantumania"
is being weighed down by dismal audience word-of-mouth after a solid opening weekend.
This lack of staying power is especially interesting to see in comparison to "Creed III,"
which showed remarkable stamina on a day-to-day basis during its first few days of release.
At Thursday night showings, "Creed III" secured $5.5 million from moviegoers, a sizeable take
that already put it on track for a great opening weekend. Its subsequent $58.4 million debut was
more than 10 times its Thursday night haul, an impressive amount of retention, indicating
that "Creed III" was attracting audiences all throughout the weekend. For comparison's sake,
"Bullet Train" did $4.6 million at Thursday night showings and ended up doing $30.1 million for its
first weekend, or about 6-and-a-half times its Thursday night haul. The lack of frontloading in
the opening weekend of "Creed III" underscores how impressive its debut was, especially since it was
coming hot off the wheels of "Quantumania," which had very poor box office retention.