In April 2023, fierce fighting erupted in Sudan.
As countries scrambled to evacuate their citizens,
fears are growing that it's been plunged into yet another civil war.
But unlike the previous conflicts that have plagued the country for almost its
entire existence, this isn't a battle between ethnic groups.
Instead, it's centred on competing factions within the country's military.
So, what exactly happened? And why could this have far broader international implications?
Hello and welcome. If you're new to the channel, my name is James Ker-Lindsay and
here I take an informed look at international relations, conflict, security, and statehood.
Long-running conflicts can often profoundly shape and change countries.
War not only militarises society, but can also come to dominate politics and decision-making.
As the army grows and becomes more powerful, it may eventually decide to step in and take over.
Likewise, paramilitary bodies can emerge and become significant players.
Occasionally, this can lead to tensions between the two elements - and even outright conflict.
One prominent example at the moment is the friction between the Wagner
Group and the Russian Armed Forces; with reports that they've even been fighting.
Another case is Sudan.
This has come to international attention as fighting on the streets of Khartoum,
the country's capital, has left hundreds dead and forced tens of thousands to flee.
The Republic of Sudan lies in Northeast Africa.
At 1.8 million square kilometres, or 720
000 square miles, it's the world's 15th largest country and the third largest state in Africa.
To its north, it shares a border with Egypt.
To its east are the Red Sea and Eritrea.
To its south are Ethiopia and South Sudan.
And the Central African Republic, Chad, and Libya are to its West.
The population is believed to be around 46 million.
Although 97 per cent of Sudanese adhere to Sunni Islam, the country is ethnically mixed.
While 70 per cent are Arab, and Sudan is a member of the Arab League,
other groups include the Fur, Baja, and Nubians.
Sudan has an exceptionally long history.
Partially conquered by ancient Egypt, the area converted to Christianity in the 6th century.
And while Muslim Arab forces initially tried to push into the region in the 7th century,
at a time when Islam was expanding rapidly, they were forced back.
However, by the 17th century Arab and Islamic encroachment was growing.
Then, at the start of the 19th century, the Ottoman Empire, operating with an
Egyptian Army, pressed southwards and established control over the area.
In 1881, a local Islamic leader launched an uprising.
Fearing that this could spread into Egypt,
thus putting risk the newly built Suez Canal and destabilising Anglo-French
colonial power in North Africa and the Middle East, Britain sent in troops.
While Egypt formally remained the sovereign power, Sudan now came under British rule.
The problem was that Sudan was in fact
two very different territories under a single colonial roof.
While the northern provinces, incorporating around three-quarters of the population,
were overwhelmingly Arab and Muslim, the southern provinces comprised
various sub-Saharan African groups that followed local religions and Christianity.
Following the Second World War and the start of decolonisation, Sudan's future came into question.
While Southern leaders accepted the idea of an independent and united Sudan,
they wanted a federal arrangement.
Failing this, they called for their own independence.
This led to growing tensions.
And all this came to a head in July 1955 when rioting broke out and Southern soldiers mutinied.
Unable to control the situation, Britain hastily withdrew and on 1 January 1956,
Sudan became independent - but was immediately plunged into civil war.
16 years later, in 1972, the sides finally reached a peace
agreement granting the South extensive autonomy.
But it lasted a mere decade.
Following the discovery of oil along the north-south boundary,
and with growing Islamic sentiment in the North, the pro-Western Sudanese president Jafaar Nimeiry,
who'd taken power in 1969 following a military coup, broke the agreement and declared Sudan
to be a unitary Islamic state under Sharia law - thus sparking the Second Sudanese Civil War.
This time, the South was better prepared.
The Sudan People's Liberation Army, the SPLA, supported by neighbouring Ethiopia,
quickly took control of Southern rural areas.
In the face of these losses and growing economic problems elsewhere,
Nimeiry was overthrown in 1985.
But while a civilian government came to power, it failed to make headway in the South.
Four years later, in 1989, it was also overthrown by a military coup led by Omar al-Bashir.
At first, it seemed as if the tide was turning in Sudan's favour - especially after the Ethiopian
military dictatorship fell in 1991, thus depriving the SPLA of its crucial supporter.
Nevertheless, the South Sudanese managed
to hold on and by the turn of the millennium the sides were tiring.
20 years of fighting had left over 2 million dead from war, disease, and hunger.
Meanwhile, the conflict was becoming increasingly costly - financially,
politically, and diplomatically for the North.
Moreover, following 9/11 Bashir now worried that his regime might be the
next target for the United States as it fought Islamic extremism.
However, the crucial development was a significant new uprising in the western region of Darfur.
Sparked by growing resentment against Arab domination, the military launched a brutal
campaign of repression, supported by a local Arab militia: the Janjaweed.
This soon led to accusations that the genocide was taking place in the area.
Confronted with two significant uprisings and growing International condemnation,
Bashir agreed to US-led talks with the South.
In January 2005, the sides reached a peace deal.
This envisaged a period of self-government followed by an independence referendum.
And six years later, in July 2011,
South Sudan became a sovereign state after over half a century of war.
Meanwhile, efforts were also made to stop the brutal fighting in Darfur.
In 2007, the UN and the African Union established a joint peacekeeping force.
But the tensions continued.
And in 2009 Bashir was indicted by the International Criminal Court - the
ICC - for crimes against humanity, conducting war, and committing genocide.
And it was at this point that steps were taken to try to rein in the Janjaweed.
In 2013, it became the rapid support forces, the RSF, and was placed under the nominal
command of the armed forces; albeit with a separate leadership structure.
And all this is crucial for understanding what we now see happening in Sudan.
While South Sudan's independence ended a costly war, it brought other problems
as the Sudanese government now lost crucial oil revenues from the South.
As spending dropped, widespread anger grew against the ruling regime.
In 2018, this erupted into mass street protests.
In April of the following year, the military finally stepped in.
After 30 years in power, Omar al-Bashir was forced to resign and was placed under arrest.
However, any hopes that this would pave the way for democratic civilian rule were short-lived.
The Armed Forces soon made it clear that they would remain in charge.
This, in turn, sparked further protests, which were violently put down.
Finally, following International pressure the military relented and
agreed to share power under a joint Transitional Sovereignty Council.
As well as the civilian prime minister, this would include the Armed Forces Commander,
General Abdul Fattah al-Burhan, and his deputy, General Mohamad Hamdan Dagalo,
the commander of the rapid Security Forces.
But resentment continued as many felt that their hopes for a proper
democratic government had now been thwarted.
As a result, new protests began to grow and on 25 October 2021,
the military leadership staged another coup.
The Sovereignty Council was dissolved, the prime minister was arrested,
and power was put back in the hands of Burhan and Dagolo.
As expected, the new takeover was widely condemned, with calls
for the transition to civilian rule and democracy to continue.
By December 2022, following intensive international efforts, it seemed as
if a deal was emerging that would put in place a two-year transitional arrangement.
But hopes that a final agreement would be signed in April 2023 were thwarted
at the last minute due to a growing power struggle within the military.
Although the military leadership appeared to be a united force when it took over in late 2021,
and there seemed to be little conflict between the two generals who'd known each other since
Darfur days, the relationship between the two men became increasingly strained.
Aside from their policy differences and personal
ambitions, it appears that broader social factors also played a part.
Reports suggested that many traditional Sudanese elites,
who came from the north and northeast of the country,
rejected the idea that Dagalo, a provincial Darfurian, was taking control as leader.
On top of this, allegations emerge that Dagalo
had built up considerable wealth by appropriating gold mines in Darfur.
Meanwhile, broader international factors also appeared to play a part.
While Burhan was regarded as closer to the United States,
and had the support of neighbouring Egypt, Dagolo was seen to have close links to Moscow.
By the start of 2023, the tensions between the two generals were becoming increasingly open.
Dagolo, who clearly has strong political ambitions, and has
been openly campaigning for support, called the counter-coup a mistake.
Referring to it as "a gateway for the return of the former regime",
he painted Burhan as a radical Islamist.
And it was this power struggle that erupted on 15 April 2023,
when clashes erupted between the Army and the RSF - fighting that has since seen
hundreds killed, thousands wounded, and a mass exodus from the capital.
Of course, the big question is what happens next?
At this stage, it's unclear.
The situation could seemingly go in any direction.
Although several ceasefires have been brokered, they've all quickly collapsed.
More to the point, there's seemingly little hope for reconciliation.
With Dagalo condemning the army commander,
and with large numbers of troops on both sides, there's a real fear
that this is on its way to becoming yet another bloody and protracted civil war.
Meanwhile, many ordinary Sudanese appear to want both generals out of the picture.
But looking at the situation from a distance, many will no doubt be wondering why the fighting in
Sudan is so significant and why it's getting as much front-page media attention as it is.
Indeed it's already received far more international coverage than
the recent two-year civil war in neighbouring Ethiopia, which left over half a million dead.
In part, it's because many thousands of
foreigners - especially Europeans - have been caught up in the fighting.
Many countries - including Britain, France, and Germany - have been desperately trying to
evacuate their citizens, even sending in military units to protect those fleeing the violence.
But there are also critical geopolitical and economic factors at play.
While poor and prone to chronic instability, Sudan nevertheless has mineral resources.
It's also an essential strategic gateway between the Middle East and Africa.
On top of this, its coastline with the Red Sea gives it control over
one of the most crucial waterways in the world.
Finally, the fact that the competing generals seem to be aligned with
different geopolitical actors seems to add an extra dimension to the situation.
For all these reasons, the United States, China, Russia,
and the European Union are all watching the situation in Sudan very closely.
In the meantime, the outbreak of fighting marks the latest tragic
chapter for a country that's been in a state of conflict for almost its entire history.
This situation has given the military a seemingly permanent place in the country's
politics, with all the disastrous consequences that we're now seeing.
I hope you found that useful. If so, here are some more videos that you might find interesting.
Thanks so much for watching and see you in the next video.