Hey, good morning, everyone.
Happy New Year to you as well.
We have been talking about that
potential for some strong and severe
thunderstorms across parts of North
Texas as we go through the day.
So we do want to take some time and
kind of walk you through what we
can expect the rest of the of today
heading on into the afternoon hours,
the rest of this morning,
heading into the afternoon now we're
starting to see those winds already gusting.
It's been a warm muggy morning.
Those temperatures already in the lower
70s as we take you out to the UNT campus
there in Denton and look at those S winds,
they're gusting up to 36 mph right now.
So it's breezy, it's warm, it's humid.
And we're starting to see those showers
that are increasing in coverage as well.
So we'll show you right over here coming up
in just a bit coming over to Fort Worth,
the cloudy skies out there for you right now
had a little fog and drizzle around earlier,
but now starting to see a few more showers,
even some isolated thunderstorms
starting to develop across the area
here late this morning as well,
73 and Fort Worth,
those winds gusting to 28 mph there.
And as we come back over to downtown Dallas,
temperatures in the lower 70s.
You see the cloudy skies and we've seen
a few passing showers in Dallas as well.
So as we head into the next couple of hours.
Between now and midday,
maybe heading toward 1:00 o'clock this
afternoon we'll start to see a few more
scattered showers developing across the
area and some isolated thunderstorms.
Don't anticipate these to be severe,
but to something that will keep an eye
on something that can't be ruled out,
especially after midday.
Heading toward 1:00 o'clock here
this afternoon,
but there will be some isolated storms.
We've already seen that,
and I think there will be maybe
one or two more between now and
1:00 o'clock as well.
Now from 1:00 PM to 4:00 PM,
the storms become a little
more numerous across the area.
They will increase in coverage
and intensity as well.
A few of those could be severe,
especially along an east of I-35.
We'll have the greatest
risk for severe potential.
We'll show you that here coming
up in just a moment as well.
And the threat will shift east
by mid to late afternoon.
It will be mainly in our Eastern counties,
but we'll still have that threat hanging
around through the late afternoon.
But I do think that will be east
of Dallas and Fort Worth by then,
4:00 PM to 7:00 PM.
The severe weather threat should be
well east of the Metroplex by then.
But there will be some lingering clouds.
It's still going to be warm and
there will be maybe another round
of showers moving through a little
bit later in the evening as well.
So as we look at our time cast,
you'll see that as that Pacific front.
Moves on into the area,
so just stay weather aware over
the next few hours as we get into
this afternoon with that potential
for some stronger severe storms,
don't think everyone across the
North Texas will see severe weather.
So some of us, a lot of us will stay dry,
a lot of us won't see severe weather at all,
but that potential is certainly there.
So you need to make sure you have a
way to get the potential of watches
and warnings that we will see likely
heading on into this afternoon.
Here's what it looks like on radar right now.
You've seen,
we've seen an uptick in those showers
and even some isolated thunderstorms.
That we have seen as well.
You see around Dallas and Fort Worth heading
out toward Garland right now, Mesquite,
picking up some showers out toward McKinney,
Royse City, Rockwall.
We've seen a few passing showers and
they will become more numerous than
they have over the past hour or so.
And I think this trend will continue,
especially as we head a little
farther S heading down I-45.
As we get into Central TX.
The showers and probably some
isolated storms will be a little
more numerous in those areas,
so kind of scattered about the area.
Nothing severe right now and
I think that will hold off.
The severe weather threat will
hold off until probably.
After midday,
it looks like we've got a pretty
strong cap in place today and that's
really gonna limit the thunderstorms.
All this is developing underneath the CAP.
But as it breaks a little bit later today
as that strong system moves in from the West,
that will help initiate a few more
thunderstorms across the area and
that's what we'll have to be concerned
a little bit more concerned about
that severe weather threat increasing
as we get into the afternoon.
So that's what it looks like
on radar right now.
Those temperatures,
as you just saw everyone in the lower 70s.
So it's warm, it is humid.
Look at all that moisture
that's moved into the area,
the dew point temperatures.
In the upper 60s and low 70s.
So yes,
it is warm,
it is humid that gulf moisture has really
increased across the area and those
thunderstorms are expected to fire up,
especially in our Eastern counties
heading on into this afternoon.
There's the cloud cover with the satellite
radar composite and the showers,
even some isolated storms beginning
to develop the main storm system
still well out to our West,
but that's going to help push that cold
front into the area a little bit later today.
And then out ahead of that,
we'll have that potential for severe
weather as we head into the afternoon.
So here's what it looks like we've gotten.
An update to the severe
weather risk for today,
it's that the slight risk
has been moved a little
farther West. So it does include a little
bit more of the Metroplex from what we
were talking about here this morning.
So we still have that marginal to slight
risk over all of the Metroplex now.
So it does include Dallas that slight
risk does and you see that enhanced
risk that hasn't changed much from
where it was a little bit earlier.
So from a Paris, Sulphur Springs,
Canton, Athens included in
that areas on into East Texas,
the architecture region especially
by late this afternoon heading
on into the early evening so.
We are talking about some marginally
severe hail across especially Tarrant
County and areas over toward Dallas.
We'll have maybe some larger
hail and some some areas,
but we will have that potential for some
65 mile per hour winds in some areas too.
And I think the larger hail half
dollar up to ping pong ball size may
be confined to the enhanced risk area.
But yes still some large hail will
be possible along with that damaging
wind threat and the tornado threat
as well will be more pronounced as we
get into that enhanced risk area too,
but can't rule out maybe an isolated.
Cell that could produce a tornado very
isolated across that slight risk area
as we go through the afternoon hours as well.
So again,
stay weather aware over the next
few hours between midday heading
on into this afternoon for that
potential for those that strong and
severe storms across the area.
So there's the severe weather
outlook as we go into the afternoon.
Now let's take a look at the time cast and
here's what we can expect across the area.
So as we head toward midday
today this is around 12:00 PM,
still going to be looking at isolated
to scattered showers I think mainly,
but some isolated storms probably
going to develop.
Across the area as well,
but those should be below severe limits now.
We will see an uptick with the
coverage intensity as we head
into the afternoon hours.
Those storms get a little stronger,
especially along and east of I-35.
So we'll see that the severe
potential ramping up across the area.
Notice out to our W though not a
whole lot in the way of thunderstorm
activity in our Western counties.
It will be mainly confined to
areas from Dallas out to the east,
but that potential for severe
storms will be there,
but again isolated in nature.
So not everyone's seeing those severe
storms today and I think the severe storms.
To be more numerous in our Eastern,
southeastern counties as we head toward
4:00 o'clock here this afternoon,
maybe up along the Red River as well.
So that's around 4:00 PM as we head
towards 6:00 PM here this evening,
still the ongoing showers and thunderstorms
that severe weather threat will continue
especially in our Eastern counties.
So if you have some friends out I30 from
Greenville out towards Sulphur Springs,
maybe heading out I-20,
especially as we get on into East Texas.
Severe weather threat really increasing
in those areas as we head towards 6:00 PM.
But notice across the Metroplex,
not a whole lot going on
as we head toward 9:00.
O'clock here for tonight,
but then we'll have maybe another
round of some thunderstorms moving in,
some showers and storms right
along that front that moves in.
So things will settle down.
As we head toward 9:00 o'clock,
all the severe weather threats should be
well to our east by 9:00 o'clock tonight.
But then there will be another at
least thin line of showers and
thunderstorms developing right along
the Pacific front as it begins to move
through between 10:00 PM and midnight.
So there may be another brief round of
showers and storms out toward Greenville.
Sulphur Springs down toward Terrell
and in our far southeastern counties
during the overnight hours that's
going to be right along the front.
Won't be cooling down a whole lot and
winds will come around out of the West,
so no bit cool down,
but things will begin to settle down as
far as the thunderstorm threat is concerned,
as we head toward 1:00 AM in the morning
now overnight I think we'll have some
ongoing showers and storms in the East,
Texas heading down toward
Palestine and Jacksonville.
Still some stronger thunderstorms during
the early overnight in those areas,
but by tomorrow morning,
maybe a few lingering showers.
We'll have some mostly cloudy skies early on,
but things things should begin to
clear out and we'll start to see an
end to the showers and thunderstorms.
Through the overnight hours and
the rest of tomorrow,
maybe with the exception of a few leftover
showers during the early morning hours,
we'll begin to clear out
during the day on Tuesday.
Now,
as far as rainfall is concerned,
the higher rain chances will be
in our Eastern counties,
so that's what we do expect.
The higher rainfall totals maybe
upwards of 1/4 to 1/2 an inch in areas
in our Northeast out toward Paris and
Clarksville around most of North Texas,
1/10 to maybe 1/4 of an inch.
So not a big widespread heavy
rain event at all.
This will be a fast moving
system with these storms.
And again not everyone's
picking up a heavy rain,
but yes,
there will be at least maybe upwards
of 1/4 of an inch around most of the
Metroplex in North Texas with higher
rainfall totals in our Eastern counties.
So flooding really not a big
concern as far as the this this
rain event is concerned across the
area now the temperatures.
They will be warm well above
normal for today as we warm up
to around 74 behind the front.
A modest cool down,
a slight one will still be in the
mid 60s on Tuesday and some cooler
air dust filtering as we head toward
Wednesday and Thursday here this week,
getting us back closer to seasonal averages.
Mid upper 50s for those daytime highs
and then we'll have another slight
warm up by the end of the week as
we head into the upcoming weekend.
Looking at that 10 day forecast,
we'll have another round
of some scattered showers,
maybe some thunderstorms around
on Saturday lingering into Sunday.
You see those overnight lows
through the middle.
Other half of the week gonna
be in the mid and upper 30s.
So it does get kind of chilly for
us once again and then we'll warm up
over the weekend and then slightly
cooler air moves back in as we head
into the early part of next week.
So again we are talking about this afternoon,
just stay weather aware that
potential for some strong and severe
thunderstorms across parts of the area.
Make sure you have a way to get the
potential watches and warnings that
we will see as we go through the day.