Welcome to the Investors Trading Academy economic calendar of the week.
Each week our news analysts review the upcoming economic events that you should be monitoring
during the week.
Equities currencies and commodities were on a roller coaster as investors grappled with
what could be a worse-than-expected slowdown in China, the world's second-largest economy.
Those fears were reignited earlier this month when China unexpectedly devalued its currency,
a move that signaled the government's concern about growth, and kicked into higher gear
as economic data continued to show lackluster Chinese growth.
In the US, tepid earnings growth and uncertainty about the timing of the Federal Reserve's
first increase in rates in nearly a decade are also sparking concerns.
What started out as a quiet week went completely haywire, you can never know what to expect.
This week promises to be even more exciting as the economic calendar is packed full of
major events and Fed speakers.
Late last week Federal Reserve members seemed to turn back around supporting a September
rate increase after US GDP soared above expectations.
The CBOE Volatility Index rose 5.5 per cent to 27.53 on Friday, remaining above its 10-year
average of about 20 for the sixth session in a row.
The VIX is based on S&P 500 options that investors tend to rush to when they're fearful of a
pullback.
The main focus this week will be Friday’s nonfarm payroll report on Friday.
Solid data this week could send the Fed’s back into center stage.
The jobs data is pivotal to the debate on when the Federal Reserve starts the rates
‘normalization’ process, that is, the time when the Fed lifts rates from zero, but
for the Fed to be confident about lifting rates in September, members don’t just want
to see job growth and lower unemployment but also evidence of inflation in the form of
rising wages.
Monday finds the UK closed for Summer bank holidays and the end of the week will see
US traders beginning to begin the long Labor Day holiday.
On Tuesday, the ISM manufacturing index is released in the US.
A reading of 53 is tipped, above the 50 line that separates contraction from expansion.
Data on construction work is also issued with the monthly figures on new auto sales.
The usual weekly chain store sales figures are also released.
In China, the official purchasing manager indices are released on Tuesday.
That is, the National Bureau of Statistics will release the surveys covering both manufacturing
and services sectors.
The surveys are more reliable than the private sector surveys and the survey sample is much
larger.
On Wednesday, the ADP report of private payrolls is issued, the precursor to Friday’s official
job data.
Economists expect job growth of around 205,000 in the month.
On Thursday traders will focus on the ECB rate decision and Mr. Draghi’s press conference.
In the US estimates on international trade are issued for July.
The trade deficit may have widened from US$39.8 billion to US$42 billion in the month.
The ISM services index for August is also released on Thursday together with the Challenger
series on job layoffs.
The regular weekly data on claims for unemployment insurance is also issued.
And on Friday, the highlight of the week arrives.
The August jobs market data is released with most focus on employment -- the non-farm payrolls
series.
The job market has improved markedly over time with job growth now consistently above
200,000 every month.
And the jobless rate stands at 5.3 per cent.
Economists tip job growth of 215,000 for August and unemployment at 5.2 per cent.