In this series, we will analyse teams, identify problem areas, and suggest solutions in the
form of incoming players. We won’t follow gossip, rumours or conjecture, we don’t
have inside information, and we’re not considering the brand value of players. Purely, their
on-field performance, and their suitability for the team in question.
Today’s team is Chelsea. Welcome to sensible transfers.
Chelsea are currently under a transfer ban, which makes a sensible transfers video quite
difficult. However, by applying the same logic to players already contracted to the club,
this video will aim to suggest sensible promotions and sensible re-calls in the form of youth
and loan players who might feature in the side. In a way, the transfer ban forces Chelsea
to be sensible. But what would that look like? Newly appointed manager Frank Lampard is likely
to line Chelsea up with a back four. On the evidence of his time at Derby County, he likes
his central defenders to be aggressive, strong and quick without the ball, and composed and
accurate with it. During build-up, the centre-backs will be
expected to support play through dialogue with the central midfielders before looking
for penetrative forward passes through to the attacking midfield trio and striker. Therefore,
it is crucial that Lampard’s chosen pairing are able to both retain and progress possession.
Without the ball, the centre-backs will have to be a part of high pressing, so will need
to be good one-on-one and physically able to recover should balls be played in behind
them. Last season, Chelsea’s primary centre-back
partnership was Antonio Rudiger and David Luiz. While the former has grown into one
of the club’s most important players, the latter has always been scrutinised for his
defensive lapses and, at 32 years of age, is not at the peak of his powers.
When looking for potential Luiz replacements from within, one of the more viable candidates
is Fikayo Tomori. The 21-year-old has the benefit of one full season spent with Lampard
at Derby while on loan last term, where he showed enough quality to earn a first-team
opportunity at Chelsea. His defensive numbers are sound, though it’s his possession play
that deserves highlighting. He averages 0.22 successful through balls per 90 minutes, not
to mention 3.72 passes to the final third. Tomori is capable with and without the ball,
and suits Lampard’s style of play. However, Kurt Zouma would be an even better option.
The Frenchman spent last season on loan at Everton, where he often played on the left
of a central defensive two. In terms of defensive duels won, his numbers are similar to both
Rudiger and Luiz. However, aerially he is much stronger. Not only was he involved in
more than his Chelsea teammates, but he won 61.1% of his aerial duels compared to Rudiger’s
48 and Luiz’s 48.2. On top of that, his 88.2% pass accuracy and 68% accuracy when
passing to the final third are highly respectable. Zouma is an attentive marker, has the pace
to recover behind, and is excellent in tackling and heading. He is also comfortable on the
ball and able to progress possession efficiently, if not spectacularly. For these reasons, Lampard
may want to partner him with Rudiger in the centre of his back four.
Both full-backs in Lampard’s back four will have a combination of defensive and attacking
responsibilities. While they will be expected to form an organised line of defence without
the ball, they will also have to get high down their flanks, offer switches of play
and provide attacking width when Chelsea have possession.
On the left-hand side, Marcos Alonso is ready-made for this sort of role. While still technically
in a back four, he may have more license under Lampard to operate almost as a wing-back offensively,
making full use of his dribbling and passing qualities in the final third. However, on
the right Cesar Azpilicueta and Davide Zappacosta are not quite so well-suited.
One alternative option to look at on this side of the back four is Reece James.
The 19-year-old thrived in the Championship with Wigan while on loan there last season,
and has been linked to Crystal Palace as a potential successor to Aaron Wan-Bissaka.
Chelsea would be wise not only to ignore such speculation and keep hold of him, but utilise
him as a more attack-minded right full-back. Statistical comparisons between him and Azpilicueta
must be caveated by the fact James’s numbers came while playing one division below the
Premier League. But his numbers going forward are noteworthy nonetheless. Compared to Azpilicueta
he averages slightly more progressive runs, over four times as many dribbles, succeeds
with 30.2% more of his dribble attempts, and assists 1.38 shots per 90 minutes to the Spaniard’s
0.62. If Lampard wants both full-backs to offer
an attacking threat, James – with the trickery and 1v1 ability of a natural winger – is
worthy of consideration. Under Maurizio Sarri, Chelsea’s midfield
three was built around Jorginho. This is unlikely to continue under Lampard, who generally preferred
a double pivot during his time with Derby. His central midfielders will stay fairly deep,
move laterally and exchange passes with the centre-backs in build-up, aiming to lure out
the opposition and open up forward passing lanes. They will need to be comfortable under
pressure, accurate passers, able to break the lines themselves, and physically adept
to support pressing. Jorginho has only ever shone as a lone number
6 and has been caught out with poor defensive positioning at times, so it is unclear whether
he will suit this change of system and role in a team that doesn’t control possession
as much as they did under Sarri. N’Golo Kante is an obvious choice to act as one half
of the double pivot, but he may need another partner alongside him who is more effective
in breaking up play. Enter Tiemoue Bakayoko.
After a disappointing debut campaign at Stamford Bridge, Bakayoko was loaned out to AC Milan
last season. He developed into one of the Serie A side’s best players, and the stats
suggest he could be deserving of a place in Chelsea’s midfield.
While he played fewer passes than Jorginho last term, the two enjoyed similar success
rates. They both completed 89.7% of all pass attempts, while Bakayoko’s success rate
of passes to the final third was only 0.9% lower. The Frenchman also averaged comparatively
more interceptions and fouls, and importantly won 7.1% more of his defensive duels. He is
also more able to evade pressure individually – not only did he average over four times
as many dribbles as Jorginho, but he completed 5.4% more of dribbles attempted.
The profile of Lampard’s double pivot may change depending on the opponent or the game
state. If Chelsea are dominating the ball they may want Jorginho’s penetrative passing.
But if they want someone to break up opposition attacks and remain solid under pressure, Bakayoko
is the better choice. Up front, Lampard won’t want his lone striker
to wait for the ball to come to them. As well as finishing chances, his chosen number 9
will need to move across the pitch, look to create passing lanes and be comfortable linking
attacks. Defensively, they will have to remain engaged, pressing intelligently from the front.
Olivier Giroud is the current first choice candidate to lead the line for Chelsea, though
he will have competition from the returning Michy Batshuayi and Tammy Abraham. The latter
is a particularly interesting option. Abraham has scored goals consistently at Championship
level for Bristol City and, more recently, Aston Villa. In terms of pure finishing, he
already seems ready to compete with Giroud – last term he averaged more shots per 90
minutes and hit the target with 11.6% more of his attempts. Stylistically he is less
of a creator and isn’t quite so effective in the air, but he is better at getting beyond
his opposite man – he averages significantly more dribbles than Giroud and succeeds with
68.9% of his attempts to the Frenchman’s 50%.
Surrounded and supplied by players of a higher quality, Abraham’s nous for taking chances,
willingness to press, quality link play and greater threat when facing the opposition
back line could make him the all-round striker Chelsea need.
Christian Pulisic, Mason Mount and Callum Hudson-Odoi deserve opportunities to showcase
their talent in the attacking midfield positions, though the additions of Zouma, James, Bakayoko
and Abraham to the starting 11 can assist Lampard in implementing his style of play.
Here is how Chelsea’s 4-2-3-1 system could look.
A transfer ban needn’t stop Chelsea from freshening up their line-up. These additions,
even if not new signings, are sensible.