As we speak, Pro-Russian separatists are trying to secede from Ukraine. The Kurdish Regional
Government is trying to secede from Iraq. And Scotland has a vote scheduled in September
that may result in their seceding from the UK. Secession is in the air, and it brings
up an important question. If the people of a particular region want to secede, why can’t
they?
There are a lot of ways you could argue this question, but the simplest answer is this.
Dissatisfaction in a nation’s leaders, its economy, or its Government isn’t enough
to secede. You need much more than that. To illustrate this point, let’s look at South
Sudan and how they successfully seceded from Sudan in 2011.
Sudan has a history of conflict between the Muslim majority in the north, and the non-Muslim
minority in the Sub-Saharan south. It was the South that won the right to secede in
2011.
They did this by having an established cultural group and region; a history of being institutionally
marginalized; an independent representative system of government. And the economic means
to establish and protect their new state, without bankrupting the other state through
secession.
Those last points, were earned in the Second Sudanese Civil War, which ended in a peace
agreement that formally established a representative body for South Sudan. It also created a plan
for Oil Revenue splitting between North and South, and a plan for federal job sharing
countrywide.
They also needed to prove that there was no better alternative to secession; a point well
made by 50+ years of conflicts and all out war in the region.
Even then, meeting just those requirements isn’t enough. You still need wide support
among your cultural group and region. You need comparable support from the nation you’re
leaving. And you need support from the international community. If any of that is not going your
way, you won’t be granted secession.
Luckily, for South Sudan, all of that did fall into place - and on July 9th, 2011, they
won their right to secede, after a secession referendum was voted on earlier that month.
Almost 99% of registered voters in South Sudan voted for secession. And almost 58% of registered
voters in the North, voted for it. Later that month, the UN officially recognized South
Sudan as its own nation.
That, in a nutshell, is what you need to secede: a clear culture and region, a history of being
marginalized, an organized government, a stable economy, no alternate options for peace, and
full support from your group, as well as support from the group you’re leaving, and an endorsement
from the international community as a whole.