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The unthinkable has happened, and military forces clash on land, in the air, on the sea
and underneath it in the most violent war to date.
But what would actually happen after World War III?
The probability of a third world war is negligible, but not impossible.
All three of these big military powers who have the capability to launch a global war
all have too much to lose by doing so, but history is full of examples of small conflicts
spiraling completely out of control- and beyond the plans of those who initiated them.
To find out what the world will look like after World War III, we have to examine two
different global wars- a conventional war, and a nuclear war.
One thing is for sure, the economic damage alone would reshape the face of the earth.
Such a war would inevitably begin by a confrontation between US and Chinese forces in the South
or East China Sea.
A Sino-US war isn't likely to go global, and would require multiple escalatory steps to
get there.
First, China would have to directly threaten or attack Japanese forces- something it is
predisposed to do already because of the presence of multiple US air bases in Japan.
If China wanted to keep Japan out of the conflict, it would have to avoid striking these bases-
which would have seriously detrimental effects on its ability to fight against the US.
Next, a third party would have to be willing to exploit the situation for its own advantage.
The most likely culprits here are India, Iran, and Russia.
India would be tempted to act to push Chinese ground forces out of the contested northern
border regions- and perhaps even maneuver itself to throw China out of Tibet thus threatening
Chinese freshwater supplies and granting it massive leverage over its rival.
This is unlikely, but not impossible, as a Sino-American war will be largely fought at
sea and in the air, leaving the People's Liberation Army free to fight against any Indian incursion.
Iran, however is likely to exploit the diversion of US forces from the region for its own gain.
A war between the US and China would inevitably cause a drawdown of US peacekeeping forces
in other regions of the world.
Currently 60% of US firepower is in the Pacific, but as losses rapidly mount, the US will need
to pull reinforcements from its multiple other global commands.
With American forces no longer acting as police against bad actors, Iran could use the opportunity
to attack Saudi Arabia and other gulf states with its superior military.
This would hugely disrupt global oil trade and have devastating financial repercussions
across the world.
Russia might seek to exploit US preoccupation with China for its own gain in Europe.
While Russia has no ambition to rule all of Europe, it could see a drawdown of US forces
in Europe as the opportunity to take by force breakaway Soviet republics, and even some
of its NATO neighbors such as Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia.
In a worst-case scenario, all three flash points are ignited due to American preoccupation
with China, leaving the world dramatically different after the war.
Such a war is almost certain to end with a US victory over China- although an extremely
costly and poorly defined victory.
Immediately at war's end, the United States military would be severely depleted, going
from the world's most powerful fighting force, to a significantly weakened force that still
has global reach, but will take a decade or more to restore itself to its former glory.
American naval and air losses would be staggering, with as much as half of its air and naval
fleets destroyed.
Half of the US aircraft carrier fleet would be sunk in a conflict with China, a loss of
over $50 billion in ship costs alone, over 500 aircraft, and over 12,000 seamen and aviators.
The loss of all-important American carriers alone would see the United States lose its
ability to rapidly respond to global conflicts- this loss in capability would only be compounded
by significant losses in the US Air Force.
Without the ability to rapidly and overwhelmingly respond to a global crisis, the immediate
post-war years would see an ignition of regional wars across Africa and the Middle East.
Critics of US military presence around the world would rapidly see the cost of losing
that peacekeeping force, as simmering tensions suddenly explode in absence of the threat
of US involvement.
In the middle east, Iran would seize the opportunity to attack its long-time rival Saudi Arabia.
Despite being an oil-rich and wealthy nation, Saudi Arabia is handily outclassed militarily
by Iran as it has relied on the United States to keep Iran in check for decades.
No other power is likely to prevent Iranian aggression in the Middle East, nor do they
have the capability to do so.
All European powers save for France simply no longer have the expeditionary capabilities
to respond to military conflict around the world without US support- and France lacks
the assets needed to significantly counter Iranian aggression so far from its own shores.
An oil-rich Iran would become a regional superpower, shaping middle eastern policy to its own liking.
This would inevitably lead to an explosion of extremism with waves of attacks against
Europe and African nations, launching both continents into a dark age of terrorism.
Enriched by Saudi Arabian wealth and oil fields, Iran could continue a campaign of conquest
unchecked across the Middle East, forcing other neighboring nations into its fold and
simply invading those that resisted.
With its finger firmly on the oil tap to Europe, Iran would have great influence over European
powers- likely leading to a necessary build up of military forces in Europe and an inevitable
invasion of the Middle East years later.
A Europe-Middle East war would be a world war in its own right, with staggering casualties
on all sides and economically ruinous for both regions.
Middle East turmoil would only make the lives of those in China worse.
In the aftermath of a war against the US, the Chinese navy and air force would be obliterated,
with only those forces left in reserve in Western China against Indian or Russian incursions
left intact.
Chinese infrastructure- at least along its Eastern Pacific border, would also suffer
moderate damage due to American long-range air attacks, while China can do little to
militarily threaten the US homeland.
Large-scale damage to Chinese port facilities would only exuberate the damage caused by
years of American naval blockade.
China relies on the Pacific for the majority of its trade, and most importantly for the
import of energy resources.
Despite heavy losses, the US Navy could still undertake an effective blockade of Chinese
trade, crippling the nation and resulting in a GDP loss of as much as 35%.
China in return could threaten US trade in the Pacific as well, but would be unable to
directly threaten either the American west or east coast, resulting in only an expected
GDP loss of 10% for the United States.
But the disruption of trade in what is the world's most important trade superhighway
would only result in the weakening of East Asian economies and, to a smaller extent,
the entire world.
East Asian nations would be the hardest hit due to their dependence on Chinese goods.
This will have a knock on effect on European nations who import cheap goods manufactured
in East Asia.
The ensuing worldwide economic recession would lead to flare ups in social unrest and widespread
unemployment.
This, combined with a worst-case scenario of Iranian aggression in the Middle East,
could set the stage for revolutionary movements in some countries, and the flareup of partisan
tensions spilling over into outright violence.
Perhaps no nation would be as rocked as China though, who despite inflicting incredible
losses on the US military, would still be facing a humiliating defeat with the near
total loss of its navy and air force.
American cyberwarfare operations would work to steadily degrade the Chinese government's
ability to censor information electronically throughout the nation, and increasing unrest
and war weariness would embolden pro-democracy and separatist factions in China.
While it's likely that the Chinese government would remain intact, this would represent
a significant threat to the Chinese Communist Party, directly leading to ever more violent
crackdowns on an increasingly rebellious population.
We have already seen this scenario in miniature thanks to the Hong Kong riots, and while China
showed restraint in Hong Kong because of international pressure, it's unlikely to show restraint
when faced with similar uprisings within the mainland when the survival of the CCP is threatened.
The further disruption of the Chinese economy would have a domino effect on the rest of
the world, especially those nations that rely on China for critical technology and imports.
Global GDP would shrink significantly, leading to unemployment and unrest across the world.
While the rest of the world is suffering though, one nation might come out of a third world
war smelling like roses.
Russia has long suffered under a weakening economy, made worse by European sanctions
due to its aggression in Crimea.
However, the loss of Chinese trade routes throughout the war, and a need by China to
replace its destroyed military equipment, would be a massive financial boon to the state.
European powers might even be willing to lift sanctions against Russia and provide economic
concessions- or even political ones, such as allowing Russia to reabsorb former Soviet
Republics- in exchange for the aid of the Russian military in fighting against Iranian
aggression in the Middle East.
A new global order after World War III would see Russia rising to a position of prominence
it hasn't held since the days of the Soviet Union.
But now let's look at a worst-case scenario- complete and total nuclear warfare that spans
the face of the earth.
While a conventional World War III would still see the United States suffer the least military
or economic harm, a nuclear war would almost completely level the playing field between
China and the US, leaving both nations a ruined, smoking wreck.
The US still holds the advantage in number and sophistication of nuclear weapons, thus
China would inevitably suffer far greater damage than the US.
However, nearly every major US city would suffer at least one nuclear strike, with most
coming under fire from multiple warheads.
Should Russia join the fray, it would inevitably pull in nuclear NATO members such as France
and Great Britain, and spread thermonuclear warfare across four of the world's seven continents.
Previous fears of nuclear winter have since been proven to be overblown, but a global
cooling effect will still take place, dropping global temperatures by a few degrees.
A drop of just 1 degree centigrade in global temperatures would make Canadian wheat growing
impossible, showing just how vulnerable the global food supplies really is.
What farmland isn't rendered fallow by a drop in global temperatures would likely be unusable
due to nuclear impacts.
Both the US and Russia target each other's vast swathes of farmland as nuclear targets,
with the express intent of starving each other into submission in case of nuclear war.
With the US alone exporting much of the world's grain, it wouldn't be just Americans that
starve, but much of the world as well.
Compound that with strikes against Russian and Chinese food producing regions, plus contamination
from other nuclear strikes, and hundreds of millions would begin to starve within weeks.
The initial casualties would also be in the hundreds of millions, with hundreds of millions
more falling prey to injuries and radiation sickness within days to weeks.
Then secondary effects of global nuclear war would lead to even more deaths, as trade routes
are disrupted, infrastructure is rendered inoperable, and diseases caused by high concentration
of airborne debris strike down people by the millions.
Many nations around the world rely on imports to feed their populations, and the loss of
global trade alone would doom tens of millions to immediate starvation.
As massive plumes of choking dust and debris spread across countrysides in Australia, North
American, Europe, and Asia, respiratory diseases would claim millions more.
Global firestorms would decimate wildlands as fires ignited by burning cities spread
for hundreds of miles around, causing fires so vast that they would be visible from space
if not for all the debris in the atmosphere.
If one could peer through that thick haze of gray that would remain aloft for days or
even weeks, they would see a planet in flames, with fires raging for weeks or even months
and killing millions more.
The world population would likely fall to below 1 billion within 5 years of global thermonuclear
war.
Within a decade of starvation, disease, and conflict for dwindling resources, humanity
would be lucky to number in the 500 million.
However, there is good reason to think that humanity would not go extinct after all, and
could even bounce back in time.
Most nuclear strikes are designed to maximize destruction.
A ground burst of a nuclear weapon severely limits its destructive range, as most of the
energy of the explosion is sent down into the ground or absorbed by ground features
such as buildings, hills, etc.
Therefore, nuclear weapons are designed to explode over their target, greatly enhancing
their lethality and avoiding ground clutter altogether.
While this makes nuclear weapons more lethal, it has the positive side effect of sending
much of the resulting radiation upwards and into space.
Fears of a global irradiated wasteland may thus be overblown, and while it's certain
that radioactive debris would be in harmful levels just about anywhere on earth, humanity
and the livestock and food crops it depends on, could still survive in sufficient numbers
to eventually bounce back.
That's because the fissile material in a bomb is destroyed in milliseconds, causing an intense
burst of radioactivity that quickly falls off as atoms decay in a chain reaction.
In several years most radioactive fallout would turn into more stable elements such
as strontium-90.
With its half-life of 29 years, strontium-90 and similar materials are still harmful, but
not nearly as radioactive as materials with a half-life of hours, minutes, or even seconds.
As Nagasaki and Hiroshima have proven, it doesn't take long for humanity to reclaim
the ruins of cities struck by nuclear weapons.
The real danger is in the sheer number of weapons employed in a global nuclear war,
and thus the higher concentrations of less dangerous but still harmful, longer-lived
radioactive isotopes in the water and soil.
Human lifespans will be shortened dramatically, and many species will go extinct due to climate
change, natural ecosystems will collapse, and a staggering amount of pollution will
be created by the incineration of hundreds of major cities.
Even after all of that, within centuries humanity should be well on the rebound.
What shape the world would take however is completely unknown, though it's likely that
none of the current major powers would continue to exist as cohesive states.
In all likelihood, it would be Africa which would become the lotus of economic and military
power, as it is least likely to be directly affected by nuclear war and, unlike the rest
of the world, they would still be able to feed most of their population as many African
states have agrarian based economies.
One thing is certain- the nations that launched World War III would be not much more than
dust, and utterly inconsequential in the new era of human history to come.
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Now go check out Why You Wouldn’t Survive World War III