What do we lack to be a type 1 civilization on the Kardashev scale?
A type 1 civilization on the Kardashev scale manages to take advantage of 100% of the energy
produced by its planet, control the climate, move continents and even change its planet's
rotation. In this sense, how long does the human race lack to become a type 1 civilization?
Are we close to achieving it, or are we still far away?
Ready, let's start! "Introduction" The level of technological development of
any civilization can be measured mainly by the amount of energy they need. But, it also
encompasses the management of that energy and how they use it to develop and grow on
their home planet. Following Kardashev's definition, a Type I
civilization is capable of storing and using all the energy available on its planet; this
includes all known electricity generation methods, as well as those that depend on the
elements available on the planet, nuclear fusion and fission, geothermal energy, as
well as that which they can collect from their star without leaving the planet.
The human race has not yet reached this level of development, but will we ever reach it?
And if so, when will we achieve it? Previously we already made a series of 3 videos
in which we address the three types of civilizations that exist according to the Kardashev scale. "Enter
here images of the series on the scale of Kardashev."
But today, we will focus on analyzing why the human race has not yet managed to become
a type 1 civilization and how far we need to become one.
The Great Filter Technological development over the last 5000
years of human civilization has brought our species into the domain of life on Earth.
It has placed us on the path to becoming a Type I civilization and perhaps beyond. However,
along with the continuing and profound sociological challenges, our progress threatens to end
or severely delay our civilization with wars, famines, natural catastrophes, and the latent
threat of self-destruction in a senseless nuclear war that leaves the planet uninhabitable
for thousands of years. These barriers that prevent a civilization
like ours from advancing and growing are known as "The Great Filter Theory," which is part
of the "Fermi Paradox" we already discussed in another video. "Place here the thumbnail
of the video on the Fermi paradox." Currently, it is not yet known what is the
great filter that great civilizations run into that prevents them from becoming a civilization
of any kind on the Kardashev scale. But, while we face life-threatening threats, scientists
believe technology may also be the key to our long-term survival.
Some visionary people have proposed to take advantage of the rapidly advancing technical
capacity to establish human colonies outside the world, carrying forward the legacy of
humanity in the indefinite future in case a global disaster occurs in our home world;
the most famous case is that of billionaire Elon Musk owner of the SpaceX space agency
who has set himself the goal of establishing a colony of humans on Mars before dying.
The idea of dispersing the human race into different worlds to ensure our survival is
not at all far-fetched, considering that, of the countless millions of species of living
beings that have been in the entire history of the Earth, we are the first that has a
real chance of saving itself and saving all other living beings from extinction.
Technological progress has placed in the hands of humanity the future of our world and all
living beings that inhabit it. There can be no rejection of further progress. How we choose
to proceed over the years to come is of paramount importance and urgency to all members of this
civilization. Will we run out of energy one day?
The most critical factor in measuring civilizations using the Kardasehv scale is energy.
The human race has managed to develop a wide variety of methods to produce energy, from
renewables such as wind, solar, tidal, and geothermal to non-renewable ones such as fuel
burning and nuclear energy. In comparison, a type 1 civilization has developed
methods to produce energy and harness every last drop of energy its planet provides.
A type 1 civilization can create nuclear fusion plants at will; this is the same process that
takes place in the sun's core; that is to say, this type of civilization can create
miniature stars. They can also produce antimatter in large
quantities and harness its energy and can even harness the energy of natural phenomena
such as lightning, volcanic eruptions, and even hurricanes.
In contrast, the human race has not yet managed to take advantage of 100% of any energy. Still,
we are on the right track; today, the production of electrical energy reaches 17.54 TeraWatts,
equivalent to 0.724 on the Kardashev scale. At this rate, it will take more than 200 years
to become a type 1 civilization. Fortunately, things can accelerate a bit if we leave aside
fossil fuels. More efficient energies for human development
In addition to the intense pollution caused by fossil fuels, these have a considerable
drawback, and that is that sooner or later, they will run out; coal, gas, oil, all those
fuels can last another 100 years if they are managed well, but as they are depleted it
will be increasingly difficult to obtain them. Of course, It will also become increasingly
expensive. A Type 1 civilization cannot depend on such
inefficient fuels. Humanity will be freed from dependence on
fossil fuels when governments are sufficiently aware of the potential environmental problems
they cause worldwide. When this happens, alternative energy resources such as nuclear, solar, and
wind energy are mass-developed to replace hydrocarbons. As the transition process ends,
fossil fuel consumption will decline to a relatively low value, as our society will
have minimal need for them. Thanks to this, humanity will find new opportunities
to grow without limits by taking advantage of inexhaustible energy sources such as solar,
nuclear, or geothermal. With this transition of energy types, we can become a type 1 civilization
in less time and gradually dominate the world where we live, controlling the climate at
will and forgetting forever about natural disasters.
How to feed billions Growing as a civilization will also imply
growth in the number of inhabitants. Currently, humanity is close to reaching 8 billion people;
if we continue to grow at the current rate, this amount will likely double by the year
2200. Although population growth is difficult to predict, what is certain is that no matter
how many people we are in the future, we must necessarily develop methods to feed a population
that will continue and continues to grow as we colonize nearby worlds such as the moon,
Mars and some moons of Jupiter. Suppose we manage to colonize nearby worlds
for the next century. In that case, we will also need to develop ships capable of traveling
these enormous distances quickly, as we saw in our video "How long it would take to reach
each planet in the solar system." "Insert thumbnail image for this video."
The distances to which the planets are located are enormous, and with our current technology,
it takes many years and even decades to travel throughout the solar system; this is not at
all comfortable for humans since too much time in space atrophies our bones and weakens
our bodies. To colonize other worlds, we must carry technology,
food, and possibly water from the earth. This will force us to invent new space transport
systems, probably based on nuclear engines that use nuclear energy instead of chemical
fuel, which is very heavy. These types of spacecraft will help us travel
long distances in a short time, allowing humanity to expand throughout the solar system without
complications. These technologies that allow us to make interplanetary trips faster sooner
or later will be used on earth, thanks to which the transport systems on earth will
be much faster and more efficient, going to the other of the world will be as easy as
taking a bus ticket to go to the supermarket. Thanks to this, we can bring energy and food
to any part of the planet without problems and thus guarantee the survival of all members
of civilization. Surviving our own technology
In the modern era, there is a global concern about nuclear wars and what artificial intelligence
can do; on the one hand, only a handful of countries have nuclear bombs, but they have
the power to destroy all life on earth without any problems.
And on the other hand, we have the slow but steady advancement of cybernetic technology
and artificial intelligence that is capable of learning and doing things that previously
only humans could do; some think that the day will come when artificial intelligence
will surpass human intelligence, and when that happens we will be in danger since this
intelligence can rebel against us and destroy us with our weapons.
Fortunately, none of that seems possible, but we must not lower our guard; if we want
to become a type 1 civilization on the Kardasehv scale, we must first survive.
When will we get it? Based on everything that was talked about
in this video, Cornell University scientists made a calculation using all the information
available to estimate when the human race will become a type 1 civilization.
The scientists used data on current energy consumption, the global development of technology
for electricity use, and annual food production, among other things, and used the equation
developed by Karl Sagan to estimate a date. They finally concluded that, at the current
rate of development, if all goes well, if some environmental catastrophe or an event
of mass destruction or a third world war does not occur, humanity will become a type 1 civilization
in the year 2371. But this is just an estimate; several difficult-to-predict
phenomena affect the calculation as our civilization advances. For example, technological and/or
social barriers that inhibit the acceptance and use of new energy technologies may arise.
An example of this is nuclear energy, which, despite being an essentially clean type of
energy and the most efficient of all, is still not entirely accepted because of the latent
fear of events that occurred in the past. Be that as it may, it is clear that humanity
is destined to be a type 1 civilization someday; it will be before or after the estimated date,
which will depend on us.