So we are only a few months away from the worldwide release of Denis Villenueve's Dune
Part 2 and many fans have speculated about how well the film could do when it releases
in theatres this March.
If you remember, the original film was released in quite an unfortunate climate, as the effect
of the Covid pandemic on movie theatres had resulted in Warner Bros putting all
of the yearly film slate on HBO Max at the same time they hit theatres.
That particular decision caused a lot of backlash, and many filmmakers including that of Denis
Villeneuve and Christopher Nolan were against the studio
decisions made.
Now, Dune Part 2 has the potential to be a lot bigger at the box office, and with it
getting a theatrical-only run straight from the outset, that creates a much more healthy
environment for the film to thrive in.
But there are many other reasons why I think Dune Part 2 can do so much better at the box
office than the first movie, and I'm going to be diving
into that as we get into this video.
This essay continues my Road To Dune series, where over the next few months I will be posting
video essays and topical uploads on the new Dune movies,
the novel and Denis Villeneuve's previous work.
Before I get into though, if you want to keep up to date on any of my upcoming content
surrounding Dune Part 2 and beyond, then don't forget to support this video by giving it
a like rating, subscribing to the channel and turning on your notifications.
But without further a do, lets dive into the potential of Dune Part
2 at the global box office.
So it's likely that Denis Villeneuve's Dune Part Two will smash the box-office performance
of the original film.
The upcoming science fiction movie was originally scheduled for November
2023, and while that original release date was to many a much more promising selection
because of less competition and a 5 week IMAX run, the new date has also become much more
promising since the end of the writers and actors strikes.
Multiple films that were due to release around Dune Part 2 in March have now moved dates,
there has been more time to ensure that the movie is of a higher quality in its final
form, and it has allowed the whole cast to start repromoting it, a marketing approach
that was hugely beneficial to the first movie's success.
So while initially the delay could have hurt the film, it appears to have become a benefit
for Denis Villeneuve's Sci-fi universe.
Speaking of the the returning cast, Timothée Chalamet,
Rebecca Ferguson, Josh Brolin, Zendaya, Javier Bardem, Dave Bautista, and Stellan Skarsgård
will be back promoting the second part, and the addition of several actors such as Florence
Pugh, Austin Butler, Léa Seydoux, and Christopher
Walken, will hopefully help to bolster its box office prospects.
With such an extended well-known cast and there being the expectation of a more
action-packed film this time around, it's expected that this could be the director's
biggest film at the box office yet.
The original Dune earned just over $400 million at the worldwide
box office in 2021, a time where the COVID pandemic caused movie theaters to close and
new releases to lose money because they were released on streaming at the same time.
Studios hoped this model would work much better but in turn
it showed them that audiences would rather go to the cinemas and watch promising new
content.
Dune was an outlier in some sense because while
it did make less than it could have because of its streaming release, it still ended up
making money and becoming a long term success, with many audiences checking it out over different
forms of distribution since.
Since 2021, it's one of the most successful blockbusters on home entertainment platforms
and that signals that a second film would surely do much better
numbers at the box office.
It's not just the success of the first film that aids Part 2 though, because another recent
success for both Warner Bros and Timothee Chalamet gives the film
another boost at the box office.
Timothee Chalamet starred in the recent Wonka movie by director Paul King, and that film
has so far grossed over $500 million at the box office, disproving
the critics who had predicted it to be a flop.
It continues to grow and is yet another excellent sign that appeal around Chalamet as a leading
man is not slowing down.
While not every Wonka viewer is a Dune one, the momentum of
Chalamet, recieving strong reviews in multiple films and continuing his rise at the box office
will help in some capacity.
And again, it's not just Chalamet, because the whole cast of Dune
Part 2 will be able to bring attention to the sequel through late night interviews,
new footage from the film and an extended marketing
campaigns.
In my opinion, the theatrical only environment is going to be the biggest benefit for Dune
Part 2, and with the movie having a global release date and not a staggered approach
like it did with part 1 across europe, I think it can be much bigger than the first.
So this is where I come to my predictions for Dune Part 2 at the box office, and based
on all the things going for it, how much do I think it can really make?
Well, we've had a lot of unpredictable results at the box office for
recent theatrical event films, and for the most part, it's been leaning towards the positive.
Just take Oppenheimer as an example from last year, Christopher Nolan's latest film defied
expectations, and instead of making its $400 million projected total at the worldwide box
office, it ended up making $950 million.
Now of course it was helped by the whole Barbenheimer phenomenon
too, but it was a 3-hour r-rated talky biopic about the man who made the atomic bomb and
it completely smashed expectations.
Dune Part 2 is the first big event film of 2024 and is
coming off the back of a successful first film, an in-form cast and now a theatrical-only
release schedule.
I think the film will have a massive theatrical appeal based on its enhanced cast,
its climatic story, and more action sequences compared to that original movie.
On top of this, the various formats in which Dune Part Two will
be screened in, such as Standard, Dolby, and IMAX, could help repeat ticket sales, a feature
that certainly played into the original films gross and even Oppenheimer's nearly $1 billion
worldwide box office.
Chalamet's current highest-grossing film was Christopher Nolan's 2014 movie Interstellar
at $681 million, and right now, I think that Dune Part 2 can beat that number
and get closer to the numbers attained by Matt Reeves The Batman in 2022.
So my current prediction is that worldwide Dune Part 2 will make anywhere between $700
and $800 million.
Now to hit these numbers the film will of course
have to be a great one and I think it will need repeat ticket sales through audiences
going out and rewatching it in the biggest formats like
IMAX.
IMAX was hugely beneficial to the first Dune and it was to many big releases last year.
Dune Part 2 has been made for biggest effect with that particular format, and if like expected,
it's as visually stunning as the first, I'm sure many fans and audience members will check
it out multiple times in IMAX.
The first Dune got a lot of its revenue through international
markets too and with it now releasing in a much healthier environment, non-covid, I think
it will almost double the first film's total gross.
We'll have to see, but I do think that around $750 million is a good target for Part
2 and to be honest, I wouldn't be surprised if it ended up making more.
So now that I've made my box office prediction for Dune Part 2, what could this mean for
the future of the franchise, and specifically, whether we do get that third film in Dune
Messiah.
Well, if Dune Part 2 does succeed on this kind of level, then I think a Messiah movie
is pretty much on the cards.
There has been some new interviews with Denis Villeneuve recently where
the filmmaker has said that he's aiming for Dune Messiah to be either his next movie or
the one after that.
On top of this a recent production listing and the comments of Jeff Sneider,
state that the third film may already be greenlit over at Warner Bros. Sneider said, "I’m
already hearing rumblings that Warner Bros is so bullish on Villeneuve’s vision for
Dune that Part Three has already been greenlit with a 2027
release date in mind.
WB sees Part Two as a home run, and internally, I’m hearing the studio is already projecting
an opening north of $100 million.
That may be optimistic, but given the response to the trailers and marketing, it's not out
of the question."
Director Denis Villeneuve also confirmed recently that the Dune
Messiah script was “almost finished,” and that he might take a break after Part
Two to make another film, before delving back into the world of Arrakis.
This was a reference to his planned Cleopatra film and Rendezvous with
Rama adaptations.
So with Dune Messiah looking highly likely, my guess would be that this would be the film
he approaches after his next one and that it would come out somewhere between 2027
and 2028.
That potential date would allow for the time skip in the story and actors to age up a bit
before we get to the end of the filmmakers trilogy.
Yes you could say that this is a long gap and if Dune 2 does well, then you'd think
a third movie would want to capitialise on that potential success.
But Denis is all about doing Dune right and he understands
that the audience respects that approach too.
Doing it right would mean some time taken between film 2 and film 3, both in terms of
the storytelling context and in terms of Denis
refuelling creatively.
If Dune Part 2 is great and performs well at the box office then I think audiences would
want to see a final film from Villeneuve in this saga, and would turn up
even if it meant waiting an extra year or two.
Quality is the biggest factor when it comes to the box office of Dune, and with part 2
coming off the back of an already great film, the future
definitely looks bright for the whole franchise, if they can keep that quality of filmmaking
high.
But that was my video discussing Dune Part 2's potential box office performance.
Denis Villenuve's film will be much more action-packed than the original, Timothée Chalamet is coming
off the back of multiple box office successes including Wonka, the extended cast including
the new additions give it the project an even bigger boost, and of course, the theatrical
only environment will help the movie to hit much
bigger numbers this time around.
Everything is pointing towards Dune Part 2 being one of the biggest blockbuster epics
of 2024, and like I said before, I think it has the chance of hitting
that $700 million range, if the film is good and the week by week performance reflects
that.
If it does succeed than that potential Dune Messiah will definitely be on the cards in
the years to come, and the whole future of the Dune universe, both on the big screen
and the small screen will look really bright.
We'll have to see but I think all of the elements that I've
discussed can aid Dune Part Two in becoming a highly successful film at the worldwide
box office.
But let me know down below in the comments section what your predictions are for the
Dune Part 2 box office performance, and what amount you think it can reach during its time
in theatres.
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