Yeah, I take one day off and rates plummet.
So my name is Dan Frio.
I do the rate update every day to inform you guys everything in real
estate, especially with our focus in on the financing piece of the puzzle.
So if you're here, you're probably a realtor or a maybe a mortgage advisor or
you're out there looking to maybe buy your first house or first investment property.
Thanks and welcome for joining us.
So we try to dissect on this channel is what's going on with mortgage rates and
thus, What's going on over the housing?
So today's focus is gonna be on the two big pieces of the economic
calendar that we're gonna go through, and I'll show you that right here.
That is the gdp.
And the initial jobless claims.
Those are the two events out today.
Why do we care about GDP?
That's gonna reflect if we're kinda in a, how the definition of a recession used to be.
So we're gonna validate that, and then I'm gonna go through some
job numbers that is the sweet spot or the silver lining at all.
This right now from the Federal Reserve, that's the Federal Reserve's target.
Now they've already double.
mortgage rates.
Now they're on their way to crushing the employment market.
So let's get over this detail show.
I can show you how and when.
So you see here, the jobless claims came in, they hit the five month
low despite the efforts of the Fed to slow down the labor market.
That's the headlines, but that's really not what the Fed said.
Let's drive down into the data that we have here.
Initial filings for unemployment claims fell last week to their lowest level.
I'm thinking in like years.
No, in just a couple.
The labor market is up and down.
I'm gonna show you some really dramatic information here in a second
on how many job openings there are.
But the drop to 193 was below the estimate of 215,000.
So when you're thinking of the whole country, a miss of a couple
thousand or so isn't that big a deal, especially when you see
how many job openings there are.
We're gonna go over that in a second.
A separate report shows inflation running hotter than previously
reported in the second quarter.
The second quarter's already over.
So can we give that a break?
Because here's my analogy on kind of this stuff.
The Federal Reserve wants to really drive down inflation, and they keep making
moves and moves every month, but they're not giving anything time to settle.
It's let's say you gained a bunch of weight over Covid and
now you want to lose your goal is to lose 20 pounds.
So you starve yourself for two days and then go back and weigh
yourself and say, It isn't.
So I'm not gonna eat for another two days.
And then you go back and it isn't working.
Then you starve yourself another two days, and then you finally end up dying.
Okay, That's an extreme point, but you get my point.
You gotta give it time to work.
You gotta put in a routine, you gotta exercise, you gotta
do a bunch of other things.
You can't do one piece of the puzzle and watch things come down.
So the point there is Fed give it time to work.
How many adjustments have there been the Federal Reserve raised rates?
Five times so far this year.
Five times and raised it 3%.
Okay.
I don't know of any other time in history that's been done.
If you know that.
Put it down below please.
But when you're dissecting this article is basically fantastic.
Here's what you see on here.
You see right through here, headline, numbers, initial filings for unemployment
came, fell last week to their lowest level in five months, assigned the
labor department and strengthening, even though the Federal Reserve is
really trying to slow down everything, especially housing and the jobs market.
But when you dissect those numbers, you go down through here and you see this
central officials specifically have pointed out to the tight labor market and
its upward pressure on salaries as the.
Of their policy tightening.
So now their eye is not specifically on housing, but also the job market.
And then we have some inflation numbers.
The PC number is going to be out tomorrow.
That's the number one guide or gauge.
The Federal Reserve monitors, I'm gonna give you that report in the morning.
Let's not focus in on the rearview mirror,
let's go forward.
So, here's some job numbers that you might think, Wow, that's really surprising.
So there's a jolt index that I follow.
The reason why I follow it is it shows us how many job openings there are.
So if you see the labor market getting good or bad or whatever, it's like it's a
proponent of how many openings there are.
There is 11.2 million job openings right now.
I apologize.
I'll rephrase that.
That's where we were.
Now there's only 11 million job openings and that's on this report right here.
So there's 11 million job openings.
So if you're in fear of losing your job, there's two job openings for
every person out there looking.
So there's ample a job.
So I don't know how in the world the Federal Reserve is gonna drive up the
unemployment rate with so many jobs open.
But the next piece of this puzzle is the economic calendar.
Would all events are taking place today and tomorrow?
That should play maybe some havoc on the markets.
So we see the gdp, as I said, the GDP came in on its third revision.
Third time they reviewed this three, three times, and it came
in every time at negative 0.6.
So now maybe somebody will say, Okay, we're in a recession because of.
But I think they changed.
If you go to Google it, they probably changed the definition in there already.
So what it is now, I don't know.
But now we see the initial jobless claims getting a little bit better.
Again, it's the silver lining behind everything.
Last month's last reading was 209,000 people filed their initial jobless claims.
So that's a first time file.
They thought there was gonna be 215,000.
It only came in at 195.
Again, guys, give it another week or two or three to see how all
this settles in Federal Reserve.
Please stop until you analyze a bunch of this data.
Tomorrow we're gonna see the core pc.
That is the biggest number that the Federal Reserve monitors they
put the most weight in on that I'll bring be coming out tomorrow morning
with that to show you how that is.
Basically came in, what affects that having on the market, but
based on just the headlines we have today, why are you here?
You're here to figure out what more mortgage rates are doing.
Okay, so next let's go over to the MBS market.
This is the bond that trades on Wall Street that is giving me kind of an
insight on where mortgage rates are going today and throughout the day.
So you're seeing on the board rate here, we, the Mortgage Backed
Security Bond is down 42 ticks.
What does that mean?
For those newbies real quick, this is a bond that trades on Wall Street.
That's yield is the biggest portrait of your mortgage rate.
So the yield on this thing moves over to your mortgage rate.
And then the lenders whoever posts the mortgage sheet at that time or
the rate sheets at that time, add in, loan level price adjustments, their
profit margins and everything else.
And that's what comes out with their mortgage rate.
So this is the biggest piece of the puzzle when it comes to your mortgage rate.
So what you're seeing on the board right now is the price of that bond
that's trading on Wall Street as the price goes down that you're seeing
in here, and you're seeing throughout this whole chart for the last year,
rates go up.
That's how it works.
So we love when this number goes up, but we haven't seen that in quite a bit.
We saw it yesterday, but it's all basically given itself back today.
So this is where mortgage rates are going.
So this should equate out to at least an eighth of increase in rates today.
Here's where rates were or closed last night.
So we're gonna teeter back on
6.75 at least.
We should be there by midday today.
We haven't really on their sheets.
We haven't really hit the 7%.
But trust me, we were there and we're still there.
So that is my report for today.
I hope you enjoy my videos.
If you do, please check me out on podcast.
So whoever you listen to podcast on, just search in there.
Search for Dan Frio or the mortgage update with Dan Frio.
If you like to find out more about me and my team, all you have to do
is go visit us@therateupdate.com.
We are a mortgage advisor licensed throughout the entire country.
We can offer you reverse mortgage.
Construction loans with we can finance.
If you're building a house long term, we can finance six months and sometimes up
to one year, and we can even lock you in today while you're shopping for a house.
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time to find a house and close.
So check us out at TheRateupdate.com.
God bless guys.
Thanks for watching.
I'll see you tomorrow.
Bye-bye.