- If you've been following the Windows and PC market
for the last few years,
well, things have finally stabilized.
By the year 2020, things could dramatically change.
This is why I think Microsoft has
a few tricks up their sleeve or new ideas.
Today I wanna talk about those and why it's so important.
Stay tuned.
(upbeat music)
Ever since the rise of smartphones,
we started to see the decline of the PC and laptops.
It was actually a big deal, at least five or six years ago.
Since then, things have stabilized a little bit,
part of that's because of the rise of 2-in-1 devices,
which has sort of transformed to reinvent the category.
Should also point out,
gaming PCs have basically always done well
which is why you hear people talk
about gaming PCs all the time.
So, one area in the PC market
that has never actually declined,
we've seen a lot of growth and investment.
That's why companies like Razer have been able to step in
and charge $4,000 for a laptop.
Now, a lot of this has been driven by enterprise, as well.
So, we've seen in the last two years,
a lot of companies buying up laptops again.
HP, Lenovo, Dell, and even a little bit of Microsoft,
have actually been doing quite well in this market.
A lot of this is leading up to the year 2020,
specifically January 14th.
On that date is when Microsoft
will stop supporting Windows 7.
And for a lot of you, Windows 7 is no big deal,
it was years ago.
But for a lot of businesses and enterprise,
Windows 7 is actually sort of a big deal,
and instead of simply upgrading current PCs to Windows 10,
they're buying new devices,
partly because Windows 10 supports new features
like Windows Hello and other advanced security features
that these companies need or want.
But after 2020,
we could probably expect the market
to start to decline and shrink again.
After all, it doesn't seem that people
are upgrading laptops quite as often as say, smartphones.
And even with smartphones,
we've gone to two years to approaching three years
for that too, as that market plateaus.
I know this isn't actually a big deal in a sense
that a stabilized mature market, this is what you expect.
It's the same reason why you're probably not buying
a new car every two to three years either.
But this obviously impacts Microsoft and its partners
who do sell a lot of PCs
and would like to continue to sell PCs.
So, how do you go forward?
Well, you try to reinvent the category.
And I think this is one reason why
if you paid attention to this channel,
you've heard us talk a lot about things like Windows Core OS
which we do expect to start to hear about going to 2019,
specifically yeah,
build this year and possibly later on in the fall.
Now, this will affect things like Surface Hub 2,
Hololens 2, as well as, future devices,
like Centaurus, as well as, Andromeda,
if that ever comes to market, as well.
Things like dual-display laptops,
which seems a little weird and niche,
are going to continue to be experimented with
and evolve in the marketplace.
As well as, Windows 10 and Arm.
Now, this shouldn't really surprise anyone,
this is Microsoft trying to innovate.
They're taking multiple technologies,
things like 5G, Arm technology, foldable displays,
and reinvent what we know as the PC.
The problem of course, is none of this is solid.
So, just because you can make a foldable device
doesn't mean it's gonna do well.
We're starting to see this already with smartphones
where we're getting teased with Mobile World Congress,
a lot of foldable phones are coming out.
A lot of people are questioning
what problem does this actually solve?
In the end, I think 2020s going to be
a really big year for Microsoft.
I'm gonna be real curious where we are one year from today.
We should be talking about the future of Windows
being a light computing solution for the new mobile market.
As well as, new foreign factors,
devices, foldable displays, Arm, and all this kind of stuff.
This will be especially important once
the enterprise purchases start
to decline starting after 2020.
It's gonna be real interesting
to see how Microsoft navigates the waters post-2020
and whether or not they can actually make Windows something
that consumers,
as well as business and enterprises,
will still want to purchase even
after they've bought their last laptop.
Alright, so there's some quick thoughts
why I think the year 2020
is gonna be a big make or break year
for Microsoft and Windows 10.
You leave me a comment below
and tell me what you think, though.
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Thanks for watching, take care everyone.
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