WE'VE GOT SOME NEW POLLING OUT -- IT IS NOT GOOD.
FIRST WE
WILL START WITH A CERTAIN DEMOGRAPHIC, AND THE NUMBERS ARE
SO STARK HERE.
IF YOU ARE NOT FAMILIAR WITH THIS, I'M ALREADY
A LITTLE BIT FAMILIAR WITH IT, BUT IT'S GETTING WORSE AND WORSE
-- YOU BETTER BE SITTING.
FIRST, THIS PART YOU OFTEN HEAR --
HILLARY CLINTON, SHE DOES BETTER WITH WOMEN, ESPECIALLY
COLLEGE-EDUCATED WOMEN.
SO IN THE LATEST WASHINGTON POST POLL,
HILLARY CLINTON WITH A BIG LEAD AMONG COLLEGE-EDUCATED WHITE
WOMEN, A 25 POINT LEAD.
YOU HEAR ABOUT THAT, TRUMP HAS TROUBLE
GETTING FEMALES.
LET'S GO TO A DIFFERENT DEMOGRAPHIC,
NON-COLLEGE-EDUCATED WHITE MALES.
HOLY COW -- DONALD TRUMP
WINS IN THAT CATEGORY, 76 TO 17.
THAT IS A 59-POINT DIFFERENTIAL.
I WILL REPEAT THAT BECAUSE IT'S THAT SHOCKING.
DONALD TRUMP
LEADS WITH NONCOLLEGE EDUCATED WHITE MALES BY 59 POINTS.
TO
REPUBLICANS ALWAYS WIN NONCOLLEGE EDUCATED WHITE MALES?
YES, THEY ALMOST ALWAYS DO, MITT ROMNEY WON THEM TOO, AND BY A
LARGE MARGIN.
MITT ROMNEY WON THEM BY 31 POINTS, DONALD TRUMP
IS NEARLY DOUBLING MITT ROMNEY IN THAT DEMOGRAPHIC, WINNING BY
39 POINTS.
BUT ARE THERE ENOUGH PEOPLE IN THAT CATEGORY TO SWING
THE ELECTION?
A COUPLE WEEKS AGO I MADE MY SOFT PREDICTION HERE
ON THE YOUNG TURKS AS TO HOW I THINK THE SHAPE OF THE RACE IS
GOING TO END, BASED ON WHAT WE KNOW RIGHT NOW.
AND I SAID THERE
WERE TWO STATES THAT HILLARY CLINTON ABSOLUTELY NEEDED TO
WIN, THOSE WERE HER FIREWALLS, IF SHE WON THOSE STATES SHE
WOULD HANG ON AND WIN BY A RAZOR THIN MARGIN.
THOSE STATES ARE
COLORADO AND PENNSYLVANIA, THAT ASSUMES SHE'LL LOSE FLORIDA AND
OHIO, AND RIGHT NOW SHE IS BASICALLY TIED IN FLORIDA BUT
NOT TRENDING IN HER DIRECTION.
SHE COULD STILL WIN EVEN IF SHE
LOSES OHIO AND FLORIDA, BUT SHE HAS TO HOLD COLORADO AND
PENNSYLVANIA.
IF SHE DOESN'T, DONALD TRUMP IS PRESIDENT.
LET'S
GO
TO THE CNN/ORC POLL --
>>UH-OH.
SHE ONCE HAD A VERY LARGE LEAD IN COLORADO, IT IS
GONE.
IT'S FAIR TO SAY THAT THAT IS A STATISTICAL TIE, IT IS.
IS
THAT COMFORTING NEWS TO YOU?
LET'S GO TO PENNSYLVANIA WHERE
SHE HAD AT ONE POINT A 10 POINT LEAD.
IT SEEMED UNASSAILABLE.
NOW, ASSAILABLE --
>>HE HAS A ONE POINT LEAD IN COLORADO, SHE HAS A ONE POINT
LEAD IN PENNSYLVANIA, THOSE ARE BOTH STATISTICAL TIES, THEY ARE
BOTH WITHIN THE MARGIN OF ERROR.
GARY JOHNSON IS ACTUALLY TAKING
A LOT OF VOTES AWAY FROM HILLARY CLINTON.
WHY?
HE IS MORE
CONSERVATIVE, LIBERTARIAN IS MORE ON THE RIGHT-WING END OF
THE SPECTRUM.
THE PROBLEM IS, GARY JOHNSON IS TAKING A LOT OF
YOUNG VOTERS, AND THE YOUNG VOTERS WEREN'T EVER GOING TO
VOTE FOR TRUMP.
THAT IS A GENERALIZATION BUT BORNE OUT BY
THE DEMOGRAPHIC INFORMATION IN THE POLLING.
THAT IS WHY GARY
JOHNSON IS TAKING A SURPRISING AMOUNT OF VOTERS FROM HILLARY
CLINTON, AND JILL STEIN VOTERS VERY UNLIKELY TO VOTE FOR DONALD
TRUMP, SO THAT DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR HER.
BUT EVEN IN THE
TWO-WAY MATCHUPS SHE IS STILL LOSING A LOT OF THE STATES.
AND
BY THE WAY, STOP POLLING THE TWO-WAY MATCHUPS.
THE ELECTION
IS IN 42 DAYS, IT IS NOT GOING TO BE A TWO-WAY MATCHUP.
WHETHER
YOU LIKE IT OR NOT, THERE IS A FANTASY AMONG THE MAINSTREAM
MEDIA AND DEMOCRATIC ESTABLISHMENT THAT BECAUSE OF
HISTORICAL TRENDS AT THE END NOBODY ACTUALLY VOTES FOR THOSE
THIRD-PARTY CANDIDATES.
YOU ARE BASING THAT ON A COUPLE OF
RECENT ELECTIONS, AND DOES THIS LOOK LIKE A NORMAL ELECTION TO
YOU?
THIS IS NOT A NORMAL ELECTION.
YOU KEEP USING
HISTORICAL STANDARDS WHICH DON'T APPLY TO THE SELECTION, AND
BESIDES THERE HAVE BEEN ELECTIONS WHERE THEY VOTED FOR
THIRD-PARTY CANDIDATES, ROSS PEROT SWUNG AN ELECTION.
STOP
DENYING REALITY.
RIGHT NOW WE HAVE A TERRIBLE SITUATION, LET
ME GIVE YOU A LITTLE BIT MORE DETAILS ABOUT COLORADO
AND
PENNSYLVANIA --
>>THIS IS BEARING OUT THE SAME RESULTS AS THE OTHER ABC
NEWS/WASHINGTON POST POLL, SAYING THE COLLEGE-EDUCATED
PEOPLE, INCLUDING WHITE PEOPLE, INCLUDING MEN, ARE GOING FOR
HILLARY CLINTON IN THOSE IMPORTANT TWO SWING STATES, BUT
NON-COLLEGE-EDUCATED MEN, TRUMP IS WINNING BY HIGHER MARGINS.
A
LOT OF PEOPLE IN THE COASTS, AND THE MEDIA, CAN'T GET THIS
THROUGH THEIR SKULL, BECAUSE THOSE ARE VERY EDUCATED AND VERY
DEMOCRATIC AREAS, THEY DON'T KNOW TRUMP SUPPORTERS.
THAT IS
WHY WE SEND PEOPLE TO TRUMP RALLIES, ONE OF OUR GUYS WAS
RECENTLY AT A TRUMP RALLY.
TRUMP WILL BE TALKING, DON'T WORRY
ABOUT THAT, IT'S THE USUAL TRUMP STUFF.
LOOK AT THE CROWD.
THIS
MIGHT BE THE WHITEST CROWD I'VE EVER SEEN IN MY LIFE.
WATCH.
>>WELCOME TO AMERICA.
>>[YELLING "BUILD THE WALL"]
>>WE ARE GOING TO BUILD THE WALL.
>>THIS ISN'T A MATTER OF TERRORISM, BUT A MATTER OF
QUALITY OF LIFE, AND MANY OF YOU ARE STARTING OFF ON THIS
INCREDIBLE JOURNEY AND IT IS ABOUT QUALITY OF LIFE, AND IT'S
ABOUT SAFETY.
>>THAT'S IN NORTH CAROLINA.
YOU SEE, FOR US WHO LIVE ON THE
COAST, WE NEVER SEE ANYTHING LIKE THAT.
WHEN WE LOOK AT A
CROWD THERE ARE AFRICAN-AMERICANS, LATINOS,
PERSIANS, ASIANS, INDIANS, THERE IS EVERYBODY, RIGHT?
IN THAT
TRUMP RALLY, THAT IS NOT WHAT YOU SEE.
BECAUSE L.A. IN NEW
YORK AND DC ARE NOT THE ONLY CITIES IN THE COUNTRY, OTHER
PEOPLE GET TO VOTE TOO, AND THEY LOOK LIKE THAT.
AND THEY LIKE
TRUMP, THEY ARE SAYING, GIVE ME A WALL.
I WILL SHOW YOU TWO OF
HIS SUPPORTERS HERE, TO GIVE YOU A SENSE OF WHAT THE MEDIA IS
MISSING BECAUSE THEY NEVER SEE THEM.
SO HERE IS ONE OF THE GUYS, AND A WOMAN AT THE END AS WELL,
SUPPORTING TRUMP.
>>YOU DON'T SEE A LOT OF PEOPLE OF COLOR AT TRUMP RALLIES,
WHAT DO YOU SUPPOSE THE REASON FOR THAT IS?
>>I DON'T KNOW, THEY JUST WANT SOMEBODY TO GIVE THEM SOMETHING
I GUESS, AND TRUMP IS NOT GIVING IT AWAY, HE WANTS YOU TO EARN
YOUR KEEP.
IF YOU DON'T WANT TO TRY TO HELP YOURSELF, I'M SORRY.
>>YOU THINK PEOPLE OF COLOR ARE NOT HERE BECAUSE THEY ARE
NOT WILLING TO HELP THEMSELVES?
>>A LOT OF THEM ARE MISINFORMED.
>>DONALD
TRUMP MADE AN ANNOUNCEMENT THAT HE ACCEPTS THE PRESIDENT WAS
BORN IN THE UNITED STATES, DID THAT CHANGE ANYTHING FOR YOU?
>>NO, I STILL THINK HE WAS BORN IN THE UNITED STATES.
>>MAYBE HE WAS BORN IN KENYA, ONLY GOD KNOWS THAT.
>>IF YOU LIVE IN A COSMOPOLITAN BIG-CITY AND DON'T SEE THOSE
FOLKS, YOU THINK HILLARY HAS THIS LOCKED UP, EVERYONE I KNOW
HATES TRUMP.
NOT THOSE FOLKS.
SUPER IRONIC THAT THAT GUY SAYS
HILLARY CLINTON VOTERS ARE MISINFORMED.
I'VE GOT BAD NEWS
FOR YOU, FRIEND.
I CAN SHOW YOU ALL THE DIFFERENT LIES OF DONALD
TRUMP PROVEN OUT, POLITIFACT'S SCORES ON THOSE LIES, AND HOW
WAS INFORMED YOU ARE.
BUT THAT DOESN'T MATTER, ALL THAT MATTERS
IS WHO IS GOING TO WIN.
I COULD DISAGREE WITH THAT GUY UNTIL I'M
BLUE IN THE FACE, BUT THAT DOESN'T MATTER.
WHAT YOU NEED IS
AN ACCURATE PICTURE OF WHAT THE COUNTRY IS LIKE, AND WHO IS
GOING TO WIN THE ELECTION.
AND IT'S BETH, L.A. AND NEW YORK AND
ALL OF THOSE PLACES EXIST, BUT SO DO PLACES LIKE NORTH
CAROLINA.
ONE OF THE PEOPLE SAYS NORMALLY THERE ARE A LOT OF
AFRICAN-AMERICANS IN NORTH CAROLINA, JUST NOT AT A TRUMP
RALLY.
THE LAST GUY, YOU WANT TO TALK ABOUT MISINFORMED?
HE WILL
GIVE YOU A SENSE INTO THE MIND OF A TRUMP SUPPORTER FOR BETTER
OR FOR WORSE, AND TRUST ME, IT'S FOR WORSE.
>>IF HILLARY GETS IN THERE WE CAN KISS AMERICA GOODBYE.
>>WHAT WOULD HAPPEN THEN?
>>I THINK COMMUNISTS WOULD TAKE OVER.
>>COMMUNISTS?
>>I BELIEVE IT.
>>THAT REMIND ME OF MICHELE BACHMANN'S COMMENT THAT
THIS IS THE LAST ELECTION.
>>THIS IS THE LAST ELECTION, BECAUSE IT'S A MATH PROBLEM
OF DEMOGRAPHICS IN A CHANGING UNITED STATES.
>>SHE SAID THE REASON IS DEMOGRAPHIC SHIFT, IN OTHER
WORDS THERE ARE MORE PEOPLE OF COLOR.
>>RIGHT.
I DON'T BELIEVE IN MICHELLE, I THINK SHE IS
DISHONEST JUST LIKE HER HUSBAND IS DISHONEST, AND I DON'T EVEN
BELIEVE MICHELLE IS A WOMAN, SHE'S A MAN.
>>MICHELE BACHMANN?
>>YOU SAID MICHELLE OBAMA.
>>YOU DON'T THINK MICHELLE OBAMA IS FEMALE?
>>SHE IS A MAN.
>>SHE HAD TWO DAUGHTERS.
>>THEIR ADOPTED.
>>THEY LOOK JUST LIKE HER.
>>THEY
GIVE YOU A CHILD THAT LOOKS LIKE THE PEOPLE THAT ADOPT THEM.
>>THAT'S REAL, IGNORE IT AT YOUR PERIL.
SO NOW LET'S GO TO THE
PEOPLE WHO ARE IGNORING IT.
DAVID PLOUFFE, A BRILLIANT GUY,
HELPED OBAMA WIN TWO ELECTIONS.
DOES HE GET IT?
I DON'T THINK HE
DOES.
TALKING TO THE WASHINGTON POST, HE THINKS HILLARY CLINTON
IS STILL GOING TO WIN EASILY AND GET OVER 300 ELECTORAL VOTES
VERY EASILY.
HE SAYS --
>>WHAT ON GOD'S GREEN EARTH ARE YOU TALKING ABOUT?
ALL TELL YOU
WHAT HE'S TALKING ABOUT, HE'S NOT AN IDIOT.
HE LOOKS AT LIKELY
VOTERS, AND HE GOES I BREAK IT DOWN BY COUNTY, AND THIS WAY AND
THAT WAY, AND WHEN I DO, I SEE THAT HILLARY CLINTON IS MORE
LIKELY TO WIN THE PEOPLE WHO'VE VOTED IN PAST ELECTIONS, WHICH
IS THE BEST INDICATION OF WHO WILL VOTE IN THIS ELECTION.
BUT
THIS IS NOT A NORMAL ELECTION, I DON'T KNOW WHEN YOU WILL GET
THAT FOR YOUR HEAD.
A LOT OF PEOPLE KEEP SHOWING UP THAT
DON'T NORMALLY VOTE, THEY DID IT IN THE PRIMARIES.
SO FOR
UNDERSTANDABLE REASONS YOU KEEP USING HISTORICAL STANDARDS, BUT
YOU'VE GOT TO GET IT FOR YOUR HEAD THAT THEY DON'T NECESSARILY
APPLY IN THIS CASE.
YOU KEEP SAYING I LOOK AT THE BREAKDOWN
OF FLORIDA, BUT I'M LOOKING AT THE NUMBERS EARLIER TODAY, TRUMP
WAS UP BY 0.2.
ANOTHER POLL COMES OUT AND SHE IS UP BY 0.5.
THAT MEANS IT'S A STATISTICAL TIE, AND HOW DO STATISTICAL TIES
IN FLORIDA AND UP FOR DEMOCRATS?
IF YOU THINK FLORIDA
IS LOCKED UP, EVEN THOUGH YOU ARE A SMART GUY, I THINK YOU ARE
IN THE WRONG BUBBLE AND YOU ARE IN THE WRONG ELECTION.
YOU ARE
NOT SEEING THE NUMBERS THE RIGHT WAY, BUT I'VE GOT MORE.
HE
SAYS --
>>THE GUYS THINK THEY ARE SO SOPHISTICATED, BUT NOW IN THEIR
SOPHISTICATION THEY ARE IGNORING THE POLLING.
DISASTER.
THAT IS
WHAT MITT ROMNEY'S TEAM DID, WE'VE GOT BIG CROWDS -- DAVID
PLOUFFE IS NOT THAT DUMB, HE'S NOT BASING IT ON CROWDS, BUT
HE'S GOING INTO THE WEEDS.
DON'T DISMISS POLLS AS CHEETOS POLLS.
YOU CAN SAY THAT YOU DID THIS THING THAT A GUY WHO HAS VOTED
IN THE LAST SEVEN OR EIGHT ELECTIONS IS MORE LIKELY TO DO
THIS, BUT I JUST SHOWED YOU THE CROWDS.
DID THESE PEOPLE LOOK
LIKE SOPHISTICATED PEOPLE WHO HAVE VOTED IN SEVEN OF THE LAST
EIGHT ELECTIONS?
THEY DON'T EVEN KNOW WHAT GENDER IS.
THEY VIEW
THIS AS THEIR CHANCE TO VOTE FOR TRUMP BECAUSE IT'S THEIR LAST
AND.
YOU ARE UNDERESTIMATING THEM.
HE ALSO SAYS --
>>BUT DAVID, IF YOU ASSUME THAT EVERYONE WHO YOU HAVE AS
UNDECIDED BREAKS FOR HER, YEAH, THEN SHE WILL WIN.
BUT THAT IS
AN ASSUMPTION THAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE WARRANTED.
WE KNOW
SHE WILL GET A BIG PERCENTAGE OF THE AFRICAN-AMERICAN, LATINO,
AND COLLEGE-EDUCATED VOTER.
WE KNOW THAT.
THE QUESTION IS, HOW
BIG A PERCENTAGE?
AND IF YOU ASSUME THAT ALL THE UNDECIDEDS
IN THAT CATEGORY WILL GO TO HER, YOUR ANSWER IS BAKED INTO YOUR
ASSUMPTIONS AND THAT'S WHAT I'M TELLING YOU, DON'T ASSUME.
YOU
KNOW WHAT THAT MAKES YOU.
I'VE GOT TO GIVE YOU MORE BECAUSE
THEY'RE SO BLINDED --
>>I'VE ALREADY GONE OVER THE POLLS SO LET ME ADDRESS THE LAST
SENTENCE.
AGAIN, DAVID, YOU ASSUME THAT IF THE VOTERS SEE
HILLARY CLINTON IN A MORE UNFILTERED WAY THAT WILL BE
POSITIVE FOR HER.
WHATEVER CROSSES YOUR MIND IS, IF THEY
VIEW HILLARY CLINTON IN A MORE UNFILTERED WAY THEY MIGHT LIKE
HER LESS.
I KNOW FOR EVERYONE YOU KNOW YOU THINK THAT'S
INCONCEIVABLE.
HILLARY IS LOVELY AND EVERYONE AROUND US THINKS
SHE'S LOVELY.
GET OUT THERE IN THE REAL WORLD, DAVID.
NOT
EVERYBODY THINKS SHE'S LOVELY.
SO WHEN SHE GOES ON THAT DEBATE
STAGE TONIGHT IT MIGHT BE FOR THE BETTER, IT MIGHT.
SHE MIGHT
DO A GREAT JOB.
OR IT MIGHT BE FOR THE WORSE.
ALL OF YOUR
ASSUMPTIONS ARE ABOUT HOW AWESOME SHE ARE -- SHE IS.
BUT
BY THE WAY, THE POLLING INDICATES, NOT SO AWESOME.
NOT
AT ALL.
SHE IS AT BEST TIED WITH A MONSTER.
NOT THAT GREAT.
IN
FACT, A FAIRLY TERRIBLE, HISTORICALLY TERRIBLE CANDIDATE.
HOW COULD YOU NOT BE BLOWING TRUMP OUT OF THE WATER?
BUT SHE
ISN'T BECAUSE PEOPLE DON'T LIKE HER, AND IF YOU BUILT INTO YOUR
ASSUMPTIONS THAT PEOPLE LIKE HER, YOU BUILT THE WRONG THING.
LASTLY, TWO MORE QUOTES FROM HIM, HE SAYS --
>>WHAT?
WHICH AMERICAN PEOPLE?
THE AMERICAN PEOPLE THAT ELECTED
GEORGE W. BUSH, KIND OF TWICE?
WHY DO YOU ASSUME THE AMERICAN
PEOPLE ARE INTELLECTUALS?
I DO DECLARE, HE TALKED OVER THE
MODERATOR AND I WILL MARK HIM DOWN FOR THAT.
DAVID PLOUFFE IS
A SMART GUY, HE HELPED OBAMA GET ELECTED TWICE WITH VERY
IMPORTANT POLLING AND DATA AND STRATEGY.
BUT WHICH AMERICAN
VOTER IS SERIOUS AND GOES, NO, NO, I DON'T CARE ABOUT THE
SHOWMANSHIP HERE.
AMERICAN VOTERS DON'T CARE ABOUT
SHOWMANSHIP BUT THEY CARE ABOUT THE SERIOUS POLICIES TRUMP WILL
BE ABLE TO BRING TONIGHT?
THAT'S NOT REMOTELY TRUE.
EVERYONE SAYS
HE CAN TO GET ABOVE 42 OR 43 -- I'M LOOKING AT THE POLLS TODAY
IN SWING STATES, HE'S ABOUT 42 OR 43.
HE'S AT 45, HE'S HIGHER.
IN A THREE OR FOUR PERSON RACE HE DOESN'T NEED TO GET HIGHER
THAN 45.
WAKEY WAKEY.
YOU ARE ALL IN THIS SLUMBER WHERE YOU
ASSUME HE CAN'T POSSIBLY WIN BECAUSE YOU ALL LIKE HILLARY.
THAT IS NOT THE REST OF AMERICA.
THIS ELECTION IS COMPLETELY AND
UTTERLY TIED RIGHT NOW, IT'S A TIE ELECTION.
ANYTHING CAN GO
RIGHT NOW.
WE HAVE 42 DAYS UNTIL ARMAGEDDON, AND YOU GUYS ARE ALL
WALKING AROUND INSANELY CONFIDENT IN COMPLETELY
UNJUSTIFIABLE WAYS.
IF YOU DON'T GET YOUR HEAD OUT OF THE SAND
RIGHT NOW, SHE'S GOING TO LOSE.
BECAUSE IF EVERYONE AROUND HER
TELLS HER GREAT JOB, YOU ARE WINNING, DON'T WORRY, HILLARY --
IF THAT'S WHAT YOU ARE TELLING HER, YOU ARE GOING TO RUIN
EVERYBODY.
NO, YOU'VE GOT TO BE REAL, AND THE REALITY IS SHE
COULD LOSE, IT'S 50/50.EVERYBODY YOU'VE GOT TO BE REAL, AND THE
REALITY IS SHE COULD LOSE, IT'S 50/58 SILVER, WHO I'VE BEEN
YELLING AT ALL ALONG, IS FINALLY DOING A GREAT JOB LOOKING AT THE
ACTUAL POLLS, AND YOU KNOW WHO HE HAS WINNING TODAY?
DONALD
TRUMP.
HE HAS HIM WINNING TODAY.
AND THE ELECTION IS COMING, IT'S
42 DAYS AWAY.
UP AND AT 'EM, GET YOUR HEAD RIGHT, BECAUSE YOU
GUYS ARE ALL IN AN INSANE BUBBLE WHERE YOU THINK EVERYONE THINKS
LIKE YOU, AND THEY DON'T.