>> Neil: THANKS VERY MUCH, ALEX
HOGAN.
I WANT TO GO TO LIEUTENANT
COLONEL BOB McGINNIS.
A COUPLE OF THINGS TO JUXTAPOSE
HERE.
WE KNOW THAT THE PRESIDENT AND
THE ISRAELI PRIME MINISTER HAVE
COMMITTED THEMSELVES TO MAKING
SURE THAT IRAN DOES NOT GET A
NUCLEAR WEAPON.WE KNOW THAT NEXT
WEEK VLADIMIR PUTIN IS GOING TO
BE VISITING IRAN AND THAT
COUNTRY IS ALREADY PROMISED SOME
DEFENSE DRONES THAT THE COUNTRY,
RUSSIA, CAN USE IN UKRAINE.
WE’RE SETTING UP FOR SOMETHING
THAT WILL GET POTENTIALLY UGLY,
AREN’T WE?
>> YES, WE ARE.
I THINK THE PRIME MINISTER MADE
IT CLEAR THAT IRAN ONLY
UNDERSTANDS ONE THING.
NOT DIPLOMACY BUT FORCE.
SO THEY’LL HAVE TO USE THAT.
NOW THE SAUDIS, WHEN HE GOES TO
JETTA, HE WILL BE CONFRONTING
THE KING AND OTHERS WHO WILL
BASICALLY SAY WHAT IS YOUR
STRATEGY?
HOW ARE YOU GOING TO STOP THE
IRANIANS FROM MOVING FORWARD? WHAT WE DO KNOW IS THAT THEY NOW
WHAT WE DO KNOW IS THAT THEY NOW
HAVE ENRICHED URANIUM UP TO 60%.
THEY HAVE ALREADY CUT OFF 27 UN
MONITORING CAMERAS AT NUCLEAR
SITES.
THEY HAVEN’T IDENTIFY WHY
THERE’S PARTICLES OF URANIUM AT
PLACES THAT THEY SHOULDN’T BE.
SO IT WOULD APPEAR AS IF UNLESS
SOMETHING HAPPENS, THAT IRAN CAN
MOVE FORWARD TO A NUCLEAR
CAPABILITY.
WITH THE HELP OF PUTIN AND
PRESIDENT XI OF CHINA, THEY WILL
ACCOMPLISH THAT IN SPIED OF THE
FACT THAT WE’VE MADE SOME
PROMISES.
OF COURSE, THIS PRESIDENT LIKES
TO MAKE PROMISES THAT WE CAN’T
FOLLOW UP ON.
>> Neil: ONE OF THE
CONTROVERSIES WITH THE PRESIDENT
GOING TO SAUDI ARABIA, DOES HE
MEET OR NOT MOHAMMED WITH
MOHAMMED BIN SALMAN WHO WE
FINKIERED IN THE KILLING OF
KHAISHOGGI.
THEN THE ISSUE THAT YOU RAISED.
WE HAVE THIS RELATIONSHIP WITH
SAUDI ARABIA.
SAUDI ARABIA IS ACTUALLY QUITE
OKAY WITH WORKING WITH ISRAEL
AND THE UNITED STATES PRESUMABLY
TO COUNTER IRAN AND OTHER MORE
MODERATE ARAB NATIONS.
SO ITS KIND OF THE DELICATE
BALANCE, ISN’T IT?
>> WELL, REALLY IS.
YOU KNOW, KEEP IN MIND, THE
SAUDIS HAVE THE CAPABILITY IF
THEY WANTED TO BUY NUCLEAR
WEAPONS.
THEY HAVE DEEP HARDENED
FACILITIES, BALLISTIC MISSILES
THE CHINESE SOLD THEM.
BUT SO DO THE IRANIANS.
IF WE WANTED TO REMOVE ANY
PROSPECT THAT IRAN WOULD MOVE
FORWARD, YOU’D HAVE TO ATTACK
IT.
THE ISRAELIS WON’T DO THAT.
UNFORTUNATELY ONLY THE UNITED
STATES COULD ACCOMPLISH THAT
MISSION AND FOR A VARIETY OF
REASONS, WHICH OF COURSE
INVOLVES THE PRICE OF OIL AROUND
THE WORLD.
WE DON’T WANT TO SEND THE
ECONOMY INTO A DEPRESSION, THAT
WE’RE UNLIKELY TO DO THAT AS
WELL.
SO THE AYATOLLAH IN TEHRAN
UNDERSTANDS THESE ISSUES AS DOES
PUTIN AND XI.
SO I SUSPECT THAT DIPLOMACY WILL
CONTINUE.
LIKE THE TALKS FAILED LAST MONTH
ON JCPOA, I DON’T THINK WE FIND
A NEAR TERM SOLUTION.
THE SAUDIS DON’T TRUST US
BECAUSE OF THIS AND WE DON’T
HAVE A GOOD STRATEGY AND
QUAGMIRE WILL CONTINUE FOR YEARS
TO COME.
>> Neil: I TALKED TO A NUMBER OF
OFFICIALS INCLUDING FORMER MAYOR
OF SHILOH, ISRAEL.
PART OF THE OLD CONSERVATIVE
GOVERNMENT SAYING THAT IF WE
DON’T COME TO A FIRM COMMITMENT
TO COUNTER IRAN AND ITS NUCLEAR
THREAT, HE WAS ALL BUT SAYING
ISRAEL WILL ON ITS OWN.
I DON’T KNOW WHETHER THAT
TELEGRAPHED AND ISRAEL ATTACK AS
IT DID AGAINST THE IRAQIS BACK
IN 1980 TO TAKE OUT THEIR
NUCLEAR CAPABILITY.
COULD YOU SEE THAT HAPPENING?
>> WELL, THE ISRAELIS ARE VERY
CAPABLE.
THEY HAVE SUBMARINES, THEY HAVE
BALLISTIC MISSILES.
THEY HAVE VERY STEALTHY JET
FEIGERS.
I DON’T THINK THEY HAVE WHAT IT
TAKES TO KNOCK OUT THE DEEP
HARDENED FACILITIES THAT THE
IRANIANS HAVE BUILT WITH THE
HELP OF THE NORTH KOREANS THE
LAST TWO DECADES.
THAT IS UNLIKELY.
NOW, IF THEY DO ATTACK, THEN
WE’RE GOING TO BE DRAWN IN, SO
WILL THE SAUDIS AND SO WE’RE
GOING TO HAVE A MESS IN THE
MIDDLE EAST THAT IS GOING TO
HAVE MAJOR RAMIFICATIONS FOR OUR
ECONOMIES AROUND THE WORLD.
SO THAT IS SOMETHING THAT
MR. BIDEN IS TRYING TO AVOID.
KING SOLOMON STARTED
NEGOTIATIONS WITH THE IRANIANS
BECAUSE OF THAT.
YOU KNOW, VERY DELICATE TIMES
THAT WE’RE AT RIGHT NOW.
>> Neil: TO PUT IT MILDLY.
YOU GOT IT RIGHT WITH THE AUTHOR