It's human nature to look to the future and ponder what awaits us in the unknown
ether of time.
And that's just what a bunch of video game experts did way back
in 2009. Some managed to paint a pretty accurate picture of what the future
would look like. Others, like me predicting I'd have a hard-light
hologram of Elliott from Stardew Valley by 2020 where sadly off the mark.
Here are three totally wrong predictions, three relatively accurate predictions,
and three things nobody saw coming.
All of these predictions came from video game journalists and
people within the industry, so I can assure you that they are in earnest.
But I haven't included citations for any of them because it
doesn't really seem fair to dunk on people for not being able to guess the future
Except for Cassandra of Troy, but her predictions are like so off-base,
what an idiot.
By now, graphics were supposed to be so
accurate they would be hard to discern
from reality. When you consider the leap in graphics between
2000 and 2009, it's easy to appreciate just why you'd think total realism was
inevitable. Graphics are definitely more real-ish than they were 10 years ago, and
real-time ray tracing is going to make water and mirrors look way better... in the
NEXT decade. But at a certain point you have to hone incredibly minute details to
be able to ramp over the uncanny valley. And it's mostly like weird stuff, like
teeth shininess and eye whiteness and making like... regular human expressions.
Those who believed in this verisimilitude wonder what emotional
damage you'd experienced seeing, something that looks exactly like you die.
And I can tell you, having allowed a partner to recreate my face in Dark
Souls 3, and then having to deal with seeing myself hollowed--
It was fine.
It's not a big deal. I'm... I'm me. I'm not that character. It's fine.
Peter Molyneux: Science fiction writers, film makers: they haven't imagined what we're able to do today.
These predictions were made after E3 2009, where Peter Molyneux gave birth to
Project Milo, a super advanced interactive AI experience. So lots of
people anticipated that AI voices, animations, and conversation skills would
be SO natural, there would be no need for voice actors or scripts.
Finally, art made without the burden of human talent.
Milo was supposed to inaugurate the
era of motion interactive games and facial recognition, but instead he just sort of disappeared.
The full-body motion controller that would become the Kinect
had its moment, but decidedly did not revolutionize gaming. There's some doubt
about whether Milo was ever really a game or just a tech demo, and if it
became part of Fable 2... or whatever.
But he certainly didn't eliminate the need for good old-fashioned game making.
The past decade has seen bigger scripts, more voice acting,
and better facial motion capture than ever before. Good news for
those of us who never want to stop listening to Mel Mahut's voice.
Kassandra (Melissanthi Mahut): You look cute right now.
The Great Recession of the 2000s cast a pretty
dark cloud over a lot of these predictions. There is a general feeling
that video games had peaked, the market was saturated, growth would flatline, and
major studios would shutter.
And I probably don't have to tell you that's not really what happened.
In 2008 games pulled in 12 billion dollars, which is not shabby.
In 2018 that was up to 43.4 billion, which is even LESS shabby.
Considering the 300 hours I've put into a little game called
Stardew Valley, it's been a great investment of money, if not in time!
In terms of relatively accurate predictions, a surprising number of developers
correctly forecasted the presence of cloud-based streaming platforms.
This was ahead of the launch of early streaming services like Onlive game service in 2010,
and Gaikai in 2011, so that's actually a pretty impressive guess.
These services let you play games remotely, circumventing the need for an expensive
gaming PC. All you need
is an expensive internet connection!
Both Onlive and Gaikai were bought by Sony ahead of the launch of PlayStation Now,
but they demonstrated to the industry that this idea had legs. Cloud streaming hasn't - and
likely won't - usurp full downloads, and there is no single service that has
dominated the market enough to become essential. But between GeForce now,
Steam Link, xCloud, and Google Stadia, there's no denying it does have *A* place in the industry.
Physical media is dead, long live the download!
Admittedly, the predictions here were a lot more dire than the reality.
Forbes forecasted that all retail game stores and boxed games would go the way
of the Blockbuster. Physical sales of games accounted
for 80% of the market in 2009.
By 2018, it was down to 17%.
Gamestop is still operating, but announced early in 2019 that it would be
shuttering up to 200 stores. Which is not a great sign. As digital storefronts
diversify, and subscription services become more popular, there will be even
less of a call to buy physical games. I mean, at least until games are hit by
their own Han-shot-first scandal to remind people the upside of static media.
Greedo: Maclunkey!
The hazy concept and poorly latinized word gamification first appeared in 2008,
and people - especially people in the industry who are looking for the next
big thing - latched on to it immediately. As such, there were lots of predictions
about how the future would be cluttered with meta games and badges and leveling
and quantifiable scoring system and built-in competition and all sorts of bullshit.
Overt gamification elements are less omnipresent now than they were in
the mid-2010s, but they're still out there. If you're on that Duolingo grind, you
know exactly what I'm talking about. LinkedIn is just gamified networking.
Fitbit and the quest for 10,000 steps is gamified exercising.
Social media provides you with hard data about your popularity, and you can even cheat at it.
It's not that gamification is everywhere, just that certain elements of
gamification have become so common, we don't perceive them as gamification
anymore, for better or for worse. A
Anyway if you like this video be sure to like and subscribe!
[a horrified gasp of realization]
The wild thing about linear time is that it makes it
impossible to see the future. So inevitably there will be some things
that nobody saw coming. Like virtual reality - it was a little more than a
dream from the 90s, but then Palmer Luckey designed the prototype for the
Oculus Rift in 2010. Since then it's been a bit of a virtual roller coaster.
Luckey kickstarted the project in 2012 for 2 million dollars, and everyone thought VR
would be the next big thing. Then he flipped it to Facebook for
2 billion dollars in 2014, much to the consternation of people who forgot how
capitalism works. For the mid-teens of the decade, it languished with lots of
potential but no real follow-through,
just like me in my mid-teens.
With equipment prices dropping and a game library with SUPERHOT and Beat Sabre,
VR has justified its place in games, if not in my tiny New York apartment.
Then there's esports. There was some rumination about competitive gaming and
game shows being a part of the future, but nobody had any predictions about
esports. It wasn't that they didn't exist - esports were already huge in South Korea,
and EVO dates back to 1996, when it was called Battle by the Bay. But it wasn't
something the industry itself necessarily held in high esteem.
It wasn't until the early 2010's that the esports e-ball started rolling, when a ton
of popular modern esports games were released.
It's about time.
Although one or two experts
suggested that there is room for experimental games in the following
decade, nobody foresaw what a huge part of the industry indie games would become.
The first rumblings came with Braid and Castle Crashers in 2008, and then the
scene exploded with the successes of Super Meat Boy and Limbo in 2010.
Crowdfunding meant individuals or small studios could get funding for smaller
projects, and digital distribution meant you didn't have to hand press disks in
your basement to get your game out into the world. Not to mention new tools and
platforms made it simpler for independent creators to make and sell games.
It's easier than ever to make a game, and harder than ever to get noticed.
Those are the most notable predictions from the last decade of gaming and I'd
say my main takeaway is that you should never think about or plan for the future,
because all is unknowable.
But here are my predictions for Stardew Valley in the next decade; first of all--
Stardew Valley finally reflects my personal preferences when it comes to
romance by letting me marry multiple people.
Elliott and Maru! Get in my house!
Stardew Valley... hot coffee mod I think is really gonna upset a lot of people... ahh...
not me
Stardew Valley 2: Mountain Valley! ...
....that's nothing....