Defense Ministers meet in Asia
They’re all worried about China invading Taiwan.
China has expanded its claims.
And vowed to fight to the end.
Welcome to China Uncensored. I’m Matt Gnaizda, filling in for Chris Chappell,
who is at the dentist.
Everybody’s obsessed with Taiwan.
Our China Uncensored team loves visiting.
The Chinese military can’t wait to enjoy its beautiful beaches...
And last weekend, defense ministers from a dozen countries couldn’t shut up about it.
I’m referring to the Shangri-La Dialogue—a mostly-annual meeting put on by a British
think tank. It’s held at the Shangri-La hotel in Singapore.
It’s attended by defense ministers, military chiefs, and other people involved in security
policy in Asia. Which sounds like the most intense boring conference ever.
And this year, everyone was talking about preparing for a war over Taiwan.
Japan’s prime minister Fumio Kishida gave a 40-minute keynote speech,
and he made more than one “veiled swipe at China.”
Veiled Swipe is a game for diplomats where they try to get as close as possible to the thing,
without actually naming the thing.
For example, Prime Minister Kishida talked about
“unilateral attempts to change the status quo in
violation of international law” in the East China Sea
while saying “We must be prepared for the emergence of
an entity that tramples on the peace and security of other countries.”
And “Ukraine today may be East Asia tomorrow.”
Well played, Kishida. I’m sure that entity has no idea you’re talking about them.
Then it was US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin’s turn. He said,
“In the East China Sea,
the PRC’s expanding fishing fleet is sparking tensions with its neighbors.”
“In the South China Sea, the PRC is
using outposts on man-made islands bristling with advanced weaponry.”
And “We see Beijing continue to harden its position along
the border that it shares with India.”
OK, good points...but you suck at playing Veiled Swipe.
Saying “PRC” and “Beijing” doesn’t count as not saying “China.”
And of course, watching this game play out were a bunch of Chinese officials,
who were also invited to the Shangri-La Dialogue.
Those included Chinese defense minister and PLA general
Wei Fenghe, who can also play Veiled Swipe.
In his speech, he said, “Some big power has
long practiced navigation hegemony on the pretext of freedom of navigation.”
“If anyone dares to secede Taiwan from China, we will not hesitate to fight.”
And “If you want confrontation, we will fight to the end.”
Now that’s how you play Veiled Swipe. Good job, Wei.
The bad news is, there’s probably going to be a confrontation over Taiwan.
Because *one entity in particular* has just raised the stakes.
I’ll explain after the break.
Welcome back to the 2022 Shangri-La Dialogue! The least boring boring conference ever held here.
You had defense officials from all over Asia, including China,
Japan, South Korea, The Philippines, Cambodia, Vietnam, Thailand...
but not Taiwan.
Even though Taiwan was definitely on the agenda.
It’s like not being invited to your own party. Or funeral.
And the representative from China—Defense
Minister Wei Fenghe—may have had a bit too much to drink at the party.
He started spouting weird lies, like
“Over the past 70 years since the founding of the PRC, China has never provoked a war or conflict,
nor has it ever invaded another country or taken an inch of land from others.”
Yeah. Except when they invaded Tibet in 1950.
Or that time in 2020 when they tried to take land from India.
And hey, I guess taking over disputed waters in the South China Sea
doesn't count as taking over land?
Let’s move on.
Wei also said, “China will never seek hegemony or engage in military expansion or an arms race.”
Right. Except how China’s military has engaged in the “most ambitions” buildup since World War II.
But my favorite part is when he said “The order of human civilization must be based
on the rule of law. Otherwise, the law of the jungle will prevail.”
Yeah, the law of the jungle. Like that time
the international tribunal ruled against Beijing’s claims in the South China Sea.
And then Beijing rejected the rule of law. Because that was the law of the jungle!
Wei Fenghe’s lies may be hilarious, but they’re not funny.
Because they indicate that the Chinese Communist Party has no intention of telling the truth,
or honoring any of its agreements, or respecting the rule of law.
Including International Maritime Law, which China ratified in 1996.
One thing that law does is, it allows countries to sail freely in international waters.
But here’s the part that’s getting dangerous, and could lead to conflict very, very soon:
“Chinese military officials in recent months have repeatedly asserted that the Taiwan Strait
isn’t international waters.” They’re doing that in private meetings with US officials.
That’s a big deal. The US and its allies frequently sail Navy ships
through the Taiwan Strait, as part of Freedom of Navigation operations. Just to make sure
one side doesn’t unilaterally change the status quo.
But as US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said over the weekend, “We’ve witnessed a
steady increase in provocative and destabilizing military activity near Taiwan. That includes PLA
aircraft flying near Taiwan in record numbers in recent months—and on a nearly daily basis.”
And while the Chinese Communist Party has always hated America’s Freedom of Navigation operations,
it’s now escalating the claim that the Taiwan Strait is not legally international waters.
Basically, China just took a huge step forward, while swinging its arms and saying
“If you get hit, it’s your own fault!” And if the US simply sails ships through
the Taiwan Strait—like it’s been doing for decades—China could now claim it’s an act of war.
Although the silver lining is, future Shangri-La Dialogues are going to get a lot more interesting.
And now it’s time for me to answer a question from a fan of the show.
The reason we can keep making this show is not YouTube ads. The majority of our revenue is from
direct support from viewers who contribute through Patreon or Locals. So as a perk,
we answer supporters’ questions at the end of some of our episodes.
Today’s question comes from:
Hontas F on Locals: “If you had to give the Biden administration a grade A-F in regards to how it
has handled China and Indo Pacific matters what would it be and why? They have certainly paid some
attention, the AUKUS alliance. Giving Australia the ability to build nuclear powered submarines.
With Trump it seemed like every third word he said was China and he hit em where it hurt,
in trade. What could Biden would do to stave off aggression by the CCP?”
Good question.
For context on how I grade the Biden administration:
I’d give the Clinton administration an F.
Clinton normalized trade relations by decoupling trade from human rights—and in the most tone-deaf
way possible, he did that right as the CCP started sending Falun Gong adherents to labor camps.
I’d also give the Bush administration an F.
As soon as 9/11 happened, Bush decided to work with China in the War on Terror. And the CCP
just used that as an excuse to persecute Muslims in Xinjiang.
And I’d give the Obama administration an F. For all their supposed principles,
they did nothing for Chinese people or human rights or the environment in China. They just
kept on talking about “strategic cooperation” with China, while US corporate profits went up while
they fired American workers so they could make cheap crap at Chinese factories powered by coal.
I’d give the Trump administration a B. Not great, but a lot better. Trump did change the game—with
tariffs, sanctioning Chinese officials, blacklisting Chinese companies like Huawei,
and most importantly calling out the fundamental problem—that the CCP’s ideology is destructive
and not compatible with American values. I think Trump should have done more. He should have
done a lot more to decouple the US from China’s grip, especially its chokehold on manufacturing.
So in that context, I’d give the Biden Administration a C. Biden is carrying on a
lot of those good policies, like tariffs, and even adding some new sanctions on Chinese officials.
But fundamentally, he doesn’t understand the nature of the CCP. He mistakenly thinks
the US can cooperate with the CCP on issues like climate change and stopping the Russian invasion.
But the CCP will only pretend to cooperate. And that’s also what the Biden administration
needs to do differently. They need to see that the CCP is a gangster regime, that will
keep lying to us as long as we let them. The Biden administration need to call out the nature
of the Communist Party, not just criticize individual actions. And they need to reign in
the greedy US companies that keep propping up that regime with billions of dollars.
Thanks for your question, Hontas.
And thank you everyone who helps the show keep going
as a paying supporter of China Uncensored on Locals.
Join Locals and you’ll get a bunch of cool perks.
Like being able to interact directly with other China Uncensored fans. And
by getting to ask us questions like this on the show. The link is below.
I’m Matt Gnaizda. Thanks for watching China Uncensored.