oh my god pink dogs and Louis the 15th
jackets are so out this season in Pan Am
is all about archery white roses and
child slaughter oh and blue hair oh it's
so cute
hello Internet welcome to film theory
where we salute the Capitol for enacting
the law that frankly all of us want to
see past Halloween every day
unfortunately today we're not talking
about the Capitol's choice in coiffeur
Eid or even any of their super high-tech
equipment battle tactics political
strategy there's a lot of topics that we
could take on here no today we're
talking about their most memorable
catchphrase may the odds be ever in your
favor
may the odds be ever in your favor
it's a throwaway line that every
on-screen character from the Capitol
tosses out before the tributes are
chosen during their press tour even as
they're walking into the game's Hunger
Games fans use it at the movies while
reading the books in line for the iPhone
6 it's everywhere the characters in the
Capitol use it like a way of saying good
luck to the tributes but in reality odds
have nothing to do with luck they have
to do with math and it turns out the
biggest secret of the Hunger Games is
that this phrase isn't telling you to
break a leg it's telling you how to
survive the game believe it or not you
can control whether the odds are ever in
your favor you can turn the games into
anything but a matter of luck whether
you're the sole survivor or dead on the
first day depends precisely on whether
you've made those odds in your favor and
after today's episode you'll know how to
win the Hunger Games not by skill or
strength or extremely advanced finger
painting skills but through the power of
probability choose wisely and you have
the best possible chances of surviving
it's like Moneyball except instead of
money you're betting your life and the
lives of 23 other innocent children as
you can tell this is gonna be a really
feel good episode okay so say you want
to survive the Hunger Games step one
that ensures that you live 100% of the
time don't volunteer when your name
isn't drawn odds are you survive every
time but okay say you want to be a hero
and you've just volunteered as tribute
stupid decision but since you're here
you need to move quickly when you start
the games there are 24 total tributes
two from each district as such you're
starting odds for winning the Hunger
games are won in 24 which aren't gonna
get you very far and I can already see
you going into the comments and protests
because it's definitely arguable that
even from the very beginning
not all tributes are created equally Roo
doesn't have the same probability of
winning as say Katniss or a career
foxface to that I say wrong in articles
already published about the Hunger Games
it's been shown statistically that your
odds of winning are actually equal no
matter what your race age gender or
district based on the information
available on past winners it turns out
that those factors actually don't impact
your likelihood of survival winners come
from both genders race and color
certainly don't seem to be a big factor
in Panem and the age ranges of the
winning tributes are definitely variable
making your starting characteristics in
the Hunger Games a statistical wash say
what you will about the fascism and
gamified child slaughter the hunger
games aren't prejudice even the careers
those kids train from an early age to be
sociopathic killers with the express
purpose of surviving the games well you
would think have a higher probability of
winning actually don't the math doesn't
lie so hey that's great news for you if
you're coming from under the poorer
districts and if you're a career well
sorry you just wasted your life alright
so knowing that you've arrived in the
capital fresh off the train as a new
tribute what are you gonna do cry and
contemplate the sweet release of death
ah
heck no mistake number one that tributes
make is wasting this precious time if
you want to stack the odds ever in your
favor you do it before you're locked in
the tube and the game's countdown begins
this isn't make out with Peeta hour or
write sappy letter home time you have
one week 7 days in the capital to
pregame and pregame hard no not that
kind of pre-gaming the free hunger games
pre-gaming involves two things training
and eating to give yourself the best
statistical advantage going into the
arena you start by carbo loading no
really it sounds stupid but this isn't
the time to work on your thigh gap for
your capital approved yoga tights this
is the time to put on the old lbs is
just think of it like Thanksgiving
except it's I'll be thanking myself next
week when all my friends are dead but
seriously think about it you don't know
what type of arena you're entering but
one thing you do know from past games is
there might not be any food for
weeks and you as an active adolescent
fighting for your life are gonna be
burning 2,000 to 2,400 calories a day
depending on your gender under the
stress of fighting off Jabbar J's and
bad CGI dogs we can assume that you're
gonna be burning far more than that
meaning that you want to have some body
mass to spare as such you significantly
increase your odds of survival by
putting on five pounds of fat leading up
to the games this gives you an extra
17,500 extra calories to survive on or
eight and a half days before your body
starts shutting down from starvation
which honestly may be enough to get you
most of the way there
Hunger Games isn't always the same
length but we know the 74th game in
movie one was 18 days long meaning that
technically you could survive almost
half that time on practically nothing in
that same hunger games 11 out of the 24
tributes died while trying to grab
supplies and food so from a probability
standpoint being able to survive
independently it significantly ups your
chances in the long run so great your
feasting up a storm our next step is to
make sure that you're using your
training time well you've got three days
here in the gym and let's face it you're
not gonna be building any new weapons
skills from scratch so don't bother
trying to become a master nunchuck err
in under a week instead build the skills
that result in the highest survival
rates based on the 27 known winners from
the movies and books 11 of them won
primarily because of their passive
survival skills most of them again by
not starving to death this makes your
first stop on the circuit edible plants
and insects as well as fire starting
really sexy skills I know well we'll see
who has the last laugh when you're not
dying on poison berries also among the
11 survivalist Victor's several one by
hiding for most or all of their game so
camouflage ropes courses and tree
climbing are also top priorities giving
you both offensive and defensive
tactical advantages and speaking of
offense let's talk weaponry let's assume
you're a quick study and you got all
those other skills under your belt the
other major statistical advantage comes
from studying blades of the 27 known
victors an astounding eight of them won
thanks to their use of blades
that's almost 30% of the total whether
it was knives or even
swords realistically you're not going to
become a swordsman in a week so learning
to use a regular knife is going to be
your best bet on top of being the
victors choice of weapon it also
statistically is the most likely weapon
to appear in the game there are 25 known
weapons that have appeared in the
Cornucopia across the two Hunger Games
we see on screen if you specialize in
any other weapon like come on
slingshot scythe you have a 1 in 25
chance of running across that weapon but
the Cornucopia has housed three
different types of knife blades single
sided knives daggers and throwing knives
choose to specialize in knives and
you've just tripled your chances that
any weapon you come across will be a
weapon that you can use sure you may
find a dagger instead of a throwing
knife but any blade that you have will
serve roughly the same purpose namely
killing other children uh yay but since
they're also so versatile other tributes
will be carrying knives as tools meaning
that if you come across a dead body the
odds are much higher that they're gonna
be carrying a knife than any other sort
of weapon I mean honestly what are you
gonna do with a trident roast three
marshmallows at the same time knives are
also one of the best offensive weapons
to use to avoid getting killed by
someone else 5 of the 27 winners are
known as brutality based victors meaning
that they fought using brute strength
and their raw athleticism these are
usually your careers or just your
standard-issue psychopaths statistically
you want to do everything possible to
avoid getting in close to these tributes
because they do all their killing melee
style on the other hand you still need a
method for taking them down if you need
to because the odds are not in your
favor for killing them up close remember
me mentioning throwing knives you can
double your knife use to train for
throwing knives giving you a weapon that
can be used at any distance whether
you're throwing from 20 feet away or
just you know generally stabbing less
word of warning here is that you need to
make sure that you're not reducing your
odds avoid wrestling weightlifting and
heavy weapon training like axes these
are gonna build your bulky muscles which
won't give you a statistical advantage
but will increase your metabolism so you
end up burning more calories when you
reach the arena reducing your time to
starvation and that's it your time has
arrived you're well-trained ready to get
into the arena right you
grab the last of those capital cream
puffs run into the arena grab your
knives stab everyone and then spend your
days on Victor's row in abject guilt in
isolation truly a winner is you well if
you're gonna live to see that day happen
you'll need to survive the first 10
minutes of the games which we all know
are the deadliest so you've just come up
the pipe the clock is ticking down and
you're faced with one of the game's most
important decisions do you run into the
cornucopia or not if you're unprepared
you have 10 seconds to make that
decision but lucky for you you've
watched this video and know the right
answer heck no statistically it makes
zero sense in the 74th Games 11 out of
the 24 tributes died at the cornucopia
in the next year's Quarter Quell
8 out of 24 died that's an average 40%
death rate which immediately says that
if you don't get involved in the
cornucopia your probability of winning
instantly doubles going from 1 in 24
odds to almost 1 in 10 that's huge
sure there may be a major weapon stash
there but the hand hand athletes and the
careers have a huge statistical margin
here of the cornucopia deaths across two
movies almost 85% of the kills were
committed in close quarters by careers
they're not starved they're working at
close range and they're hyped on
adrenaline so it's literally the worst
time to engage those guys yes this
significantly decreases your likelihood
of picking up a weapon right off the bat
but for the first several days of the
arena lack of weapons doesn't matter
your priorities in the game are the same
as your training priorities survival
first in an ideal scenario you want to
pick off a supply bag box satchel
whatever from a totally unoccupied
corner of the cornucopia it's definitely
possible because we've seen it done
twice in the first movie you're not
going to interact with another tribute
while doing this and seriously if it
looks like it's a contest it's
statistically better to abort than fight
it out so play it safe stay alive and
run away
and with that congratulations you've
successfully lived past the deadliest 10
minutes of the games you're now a
well-nourished survivalist ready to
outlast the other frightened children
but seriously what do you do now
where do you go do you stalk other
tributes or do you run for cover should
you build an alliance or go with solo
tracker jackers edible and most
importantly of all what is the one
almost foolproof strategy that will
guarantee you survive far longer than
anything else you could possibly do in
the game's longer than anything we've
discussed today
well Katniss put an arrow through that
subscribe button to make sure that
you're notified next week when that
video gets published and in the meantime
climb a tree and hang tight with this
theory all about how the beast gets
royally screwed over in Beauty and the
Beast and hey remember that's just a
theory a film theory
and cut