THEY OPEN SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE
WE DO.
ASHLEY, THANK YOU.
JIGGERY-POKERY.
OKAY.
THAT'S A WHOLE NEW ONE.
LEAVE IT TO BORIS JOHNSON.
LET'S TRANSLATE THAT.
IS THAT WHAT HAPPENS IF IT
DOESN'T PASS?
WILL IT OR WON'T IT PASS?
WHAT HAPPENS IF THE PLAN DOES
NOT GO THROUGH?
THE MAN WHO PERHAPS BETTER THAN
ANYONE ELSE MIGHT SEE THE BREXIT
SITUATION REALLY CLEARLY MIGHT
BE OUR NEXT GUEST.
HE'S WELL-VERSED IN HOW THE
BREXIT OUTCOME COULD IMPACT
EUROPEAN MARKETS, HAVING SERVED
ON THE FRONT LINES OVERSEAS AS
THE PRINCIPAL DEPUTY ASSISTANT
SECRETARY OF STATE FOR EUROPEAN
AFFAIRS.
WE ARE PROUD TO WELCOME HIM TO A
FOX BUSINESS EXCLUSIVE.
I REMEMBER JANUARY OF 2016, THE
FIRST LET'S LEAVE THE EUROPEAN
BREXIT VOTE, OUR MARKETS
COMPLETELY TANKED.
IT WAS A PRETTY SERIOUS
REACTION.
>> IT WAS.
IT WAS.
I THINK THAT THESE DAYS, MUCH OF
THE SURPRISE HAS BEEN FACTORED
IN AND THERE ISN'T LIKELY TO BE
A BIG IMPACT IF THERESA MAY
LOSES THIS VOTE TOMORROW BECAUSE
IT'S EXPECTED.
THE ONLY QUESTION IS HOW BIG.
LIZ: IT TURNED OUT TO BE A
BUYING OPPORTUNITY.
THE DOW HAS BEEN UP 32%.
PUTTING OUR BENEFITS ASIDE OF
WHATEVER HAPPENS, I'M VERY
INTERESTED TO KNOW,
ECONOMICALLY, WHAT THE REACTION
WILL BE.
FIRST, LET'S GET YOUR OUTLOOK
HERE.
WILL IT OR WON'T IT PASS?
>> IT WILL NOT PASS.
IT WILL NOT PASS.
THE QUESTION IS HOW BADLY WILL
IT GO DOWN.
IF IT GOES DOWN BY LESS THAN 100
VOTES, IT'S GOOD FOR THERESA
MAY.
IF IT GOES DOWN BY MORE THAN 200
VOTES, IT'S BAD FOR -- VERY BAD
FOR THE GOVERNMENT AND MAY WELL
RESULT IN THE FALL OF THE
GOVERNMENT ITSELF INTO ELECTIONS
AND ALL THE REST.
LIZ: WHAT'S YOUR BEST GUESS?
>> WELL, YOU KNOW, SOMEWHERE IN
BETWEEN.
I THINK IT'S VERY UNPOPULAR.
IT'S VERY UNPOPULAR BECAUSE IT'S
THE LEAST WORST OPTION FOR MANY
PEOPLE BUT IT'S NOT -- NO ONE
LOVES IT.
LIZ: I NEVER LIKE TO ASSUME THAT
PEOPLE KNOW WHAT HER SOFT BREXIT
DEAL IS SO WE CAN PUT UP ON THE
SCREEN WHAT HER PLAN IS.
LEAVE THE EUROPEAN UNION AND YET
KEEP SOME OF THE TRADE BLOC
PRIVILEGES OPEN, PAY FOR THOSE
PRIVILEGES, RIGHT, THEN MAINTAIN
SOME OF THE EU REQUIRED
REGULATIONS JUST SO THAT WE CAN
KEEP THAT RELATIONSHIP, BUT THE
UNDERLYING ISSUE HERE IS THAT
THE EUROPEAN -- I GUESS THE UK
WOULD BE PREVENTED FROM STRIKING
SEPARATE BILATERAL DEALS WITH
THE U.S.?
>> IF THEY DID A CUSTOMS UNION,
THAT'S RIGHT.
THE TRICK IS NORTHERN IRELAND.
THE PROBLEM IS IRELAND.
IF THERE WERE NO NORTHERN
IRELAND, IF YOU DIDN'T HAVE THE
PROSPECT OF A DEAL RESULTING
IN -- A DEAL IN WHICH THE UK HAS
ITS OWN FREE ABILITY TO DO TRADE
AGREEMENTS, THAT WOULD PUT --
WOULD REQUIRE A CUSTOMS BORDER
ON IRELAND WHICH WOULD TANK THE
PEACE DEAL.
IF THERE WERE NO NORTHERN
IRELAND, THIS WOULD BE SIMPLE.
YOU JUST DO A FREE TRADE
AGREEMENT, THE BRITISH WOULD
TRADE LIKE CANADA WITH THE EU.
BUT THE EU WON'T AGREE TO THAT
BECAUSE THE IRISH WON'T AGREE TO
THAT, BECAUSE IT DIVIDES THEIR
ISLAND.
LIZ: YOU WERE VERY INVOLVED WITH
GREECE BEFORE THE CRISIS WITH
GREECE, AND THEN WE SAW GREECE
REALLY KIND OF DESCEND WHEN IT
HAD ITS FINANCIAL CRISIS.
YOU KNOW, AS WE LOOK AT YOUR
TIME AS U.S. AMBASSADOR, YOU CAN
PROBABLY GUESS WILL IT BE AS
BAD, IS THERE EVEN AN APPLES TO
APPLES COMPARISON?
>> IT'S A DIFFERENT PROBLEM.
THE GREEK PROBLEM WAS A
FINANCIAL CREDITWORTHINESS
PROBLEM.
THE GREEKS WEREN'T CREDITWORTHY
AND THEY COULDN'T STAY IN THE
EURO WITHOUT SUBSTANTIAL
TRANSFERS OF WEALTH.
THAT'S NOT THE BRITISH PROBLEM.
THE GREEK PROBLEM WAS SERIOUS
BECAUSE IT IMPEDED THE ENTIRE
EURO.
IF THE UK LEAVES THE EU, THE EU
WILL SURVIVE.
IT'S NOT EXISTENTIAL THE WAY THE
GREEK CRISIS WAS EVEN THOUGH THE
UK IS MUCH, MUCH BIGGER THAN
GREECE.
LIZ: YOU WROTE AN OP-ED AND YOU
SAID BRITONS CANNOT HAVE THEIR
BREXIT AND EAT IT, TOO.
LET'S JUST SAY THIS FAILS.
IS THERESA MAY THEN OBLIGATED TO
DO ANOTHER REFERENDUM, ANOTHER
ALL RIGHT, LEAVE OR STAY, OR DO
THEY JUST EXIT AND WILL THERE BE
CHAOS AND WHY SHOULD OUR U.S.
VIEWERS CARE?
>> OUR U.S. VIEWERS, TO START
WITH THE LAST FIRST, U.S.
VIEWERS SHOULD CARE BECAUSE
CHAOS IN BRITAIN IN ITS
RELATIONSHIP WITH THE EU AFFECTS
LOTS OF AMERICAN INVESTORS.
AMERICAN COMPANIES ARE VERY
INVESTED IN BOTH BRITAIN AND ON
THE CONTINENT, AND TRADE
DISRUPTION WILL AFFECT THE
VALUES OF THOSE INVESTMENTS.
WE CARE BECAUSE THE EU AND
EUROPE ARE OUR CLOSEST ALLIES
AND THEIR FALLING OUT AND
DISINTEGRATION IS BAD FOR ALL OF
US.
LIZ: WILL THERE BE CHAOS, YES OR
NO?
>> I THINK IT'S MANAGEABLE.