In September 2022, Armenian and Azerbaijani troops clashed in the most serious fighting
between the two countries since they went to war in September 2020.
But while a ceasefire has now been reached, there are real fears that a new war is looming.
So, what exactly lay behind the sudden violence that left several hundred dead?
And why their growing fears that this could be a prelude to more fighting - fighting that
could one way or another see a final solution to the long-standing issue of Nagorno-Karabakh.
Hello and welcome. If you're new to the channel, my name is James Ker-Lindsay and
here I take an informed look at international relations, conflict, security, and statehood.
Wars end in various ways.
In some cases, though rarely, one side will win a decisive
victory leading to a conditional or even unconditional surrender.
At other times, a conflict may simply fade away - as one or
both sides lose the ability, or will, to fight.
Most usually, though, they end with the ceasefire.
The sides agree to stop fighting pending peace talks.
But while a final agreement can often take a long time to
reach - and the ceasefire becomes semi-permanent,
holding for years or even decades - at other times the situation is extremely fragile.
A good example is the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan
over the breakaway region of Nagorno-Karabakh.
In November 2020, their 44-day war ended with a Russian brokered ceasefire.
However, since then, no final agreement has been reached.
As a result, tensions have risen.
This came to a head on the 12 September 2022, when clashes along their border left over 200 dead.
But while the fighting was swiftly stopped, there's a very real sense
that they could well be moving towards a catastrophically decisive new wa.
I have covered the conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh
in previous videos and so I won't go into a lot of detail again here.
The issue centres on the territory located in Western Azerbaijan.
Predominantly inhabited by ethnic Armenians,
as the Soviet Union broke apart it unilaterally declared independence.
This led to a bitter war between Armenia and Azerbaijan that not
only saw Armenian forces secure control over Nagorno-Karabakh,
but also saw them seize control of the surrounding Azerbaijani districts.
At its height, Armenia controlled 14 of Azerbaijan's territory.
Although the UN Security Council reaffirmed Azerbaijan's sovereignty and territorial
Integrity during the first war, in the years that followed efforts were made to reach a settlement.
Despite reaching an agreement over the broad principles of a solution,
a final deal proved impossible.
However, instead, and buoyed by energy revenues, Azerbaijan began to rearm.
With signals that it was preparing to retake Nagorno-Karabakh by force, tensions increased.
As well as frequent skirmishes along the ceasefire line, there were significant confrontations,
including a four-day conflict in April 2016 and major clashes in July 2020.
However, matters eventually came to a head
on 27 September 2020 when war broke out between the sides.
Quickly overrunning Armenian forces, Azerbaijani troops retook the districts
surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh and made headway into the region itself.
However, after 44 days of fighting, and just as it appeared as though Azerbaijan was about
to rout the last Armenian line of resistance, Russia stepped in and brokered a ceasefire.
In return for a 2,000 strong Russian peacekeeping presence in what remained of Nagorno-Karabakh,
Azerbaijan would be given a transport corridor across Armenia to its exclave of Nakhchivan.
While Azerbaijan hailed the outcome as a victory, in private many were frustrated by the result.
Instead of overrunning Nagorno-Karabakh and reasserting its uncontested sovereignty over the
territory, Russia's last-minute intervention meant that the issue remained unresolved.
While there'd been a long-standing peace process under the Organization
for Security and Cooperation in Europe, the OSCE - and co-chaired by Russia,
France and the United States, the so-called Minsk Group - this now essentially fell to one side.
So did Russian efforts to control the situation.
Instead, the European Union began to take the lead and, much to Moscow's annoyance,
it convened a meeting between the Armenian Prime Minister,
Nikol Pashinyan, and the President of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev.
But while the sides reportedly exchanged ideas on a final settlement, they remained
a part on the all-important question of Nagorno-Karabakh.
While Armenia wanted the rights of ethnic Armenians living there to be be guaranteed,
and an agreement on the region's final status, Azerbaijan wanted the sides to
demarcate their border and renounce all territorial claims over one another.
Meanwhile, Azerbaijan made it clear that there could be no special status for the
Armenians living in Nagorno-Karabakh, nor a special status for Nagorno-Karabakh itself.
Meanwhile, the planned transport links across Armenia failed to materialise.
Although further talks were held, tensions grew and in August 2022 fighting erupted.
However, following further EU-led talks,
the leaders reaffirmed their commitment to a negotiated settlement and agreed to
meet again within a month to discuss a draft text of a final peace deal.
But just two weeks later, on 12 September, further fighting broke out.
In what became the most serious clashes between the two sides
since the 2020 War, over 200 Armenian and Azerbaijani soldiers were killed.
As Armenia called on its partners in the Russian-led Collective Security
Treaty Organization, the CSTO, to step in, Moscow brokered a new ceasefire.
Although the sides blamed each other for the latest fighting,
many believe that Azerbaijan was ultimately responsible for the clashes.
Aside from frequent Russian claims that Baku has repeatedly violated the ceasefire over the
past year, many Western observers have also pointed the finger of blame at Azerbaijan.
Of course, while it could be argued that these are pro-Armenian voices, looked at dispassionately
there seems little reason for Yerevan to reignite a conflict that it can't seemingly win.
Conversely, there's every reason for Azerbaijan to be
putting pressure on Armenia - especially just now.
For a start, there's Baku's evident frustration at the outcome of the
war in 2020, which not only stopped it from taking
full control of Karabakh, but also left Russian peacekeepers on its territory.
But it goes further than this.
Having accepted the principle of a negotiated settlement,
Azerbaijan will no doubt have expected its decisive victory to have been recognised.
A peace deal should have been reached quickly.
Instead, almost two years later it's still waiting.
In this sense, Baku may be keen to remind Armenia - and the other International parties concerned -
that unless an agreement is reached and soon, it's ready to end the job by armed force.
Of course, many may see this as a bluff.
While Baku may be unhappy about the pace of talks, it wouldn't dare push past Russian peacekeepers.
Until the start of this year, this would have been true.
Indeed, Baku was seemingly trying to avoid alienating Moscow at all costs.
In February 2022, the two countries even signed a strategic agreement.
However, the war in Ukraine has seemingly changed this calculation.
With real signs that Russia is starting to lose ground,
Baku may now feel tempted to act - even more so as it will also know that Russia has little
interest in brokering a final settlement that would make its peacekeepers redundant.
To this extent, now might be the best chance to end the conflict decisively.
Still, Baku will also know that it would come at a potentially heavy price.
Russia may be down, but it's not out.
There's a very real danger of military escalation.
Indeed, despite being pressed elsewhere,
Russia may have no choice but to respond if Azerbaijan acts against Nagorno-Karabakh.
Aside from the reputational damage it would suffer by being challenged by Baku,
the Kremlin will understand that the successful operation to retake
Nagorno-Karabakh would fatally undermine its standing in Armenia - a nominal ally.
Already, there are signs that Armenians are less trusting of Russia after the 2020 War.
Many feel angry that Moscow only stepped in at the last moment - and, even then,
only to secure its own interest in having a military force on the ground in Azerbaijan.
Nevertheless, Yerevan still feels that it must
stick with Russia for the sake of Nagorno-Karabakh.
However, if the region is lost,
Armenians may have little wish or need for continuing Russian patronage.
It would be the catalyst to move closer to the West.
Indeed, there have already been anti-Russian protests in Armenia.
This gives Moscow a strong reason to keep what little remains of Nagorno-Karabakh
out of Azerbaijan's hands and use it as leverage to keep Armenian allegiance.
Interestingly, there's also a western dimension for Azerbaijan to consider.
Aside from the damage any offensive could do to relations with Moscow, Baku will have
to consider the effects it would have on its relations with Europe and the United States.
An attack would not only be a blow to the EU's peacemaking role,
it's also likely that any attack would be strongly condemned by the European
Parliament and U.S Congress, where there is strong pro-Armenian voices .
Then again, if there was ever a moment when Azerbaijan could
seemingly weather such criticism, it's now.
With pressure growing on the EU to break its energy dependency one Russia Azerbaijan,
has gained strategic importance as a source of natural gas.
For all these reasons, Azerbaijan knows that
a move against Nagorno-Karabakh still carries significant risks,.
On balance, it therefore still seems to prefer the option of a peace agreement.
This perhaps explains the recent escalations along the border with Armenia.
It wants to pressure Yerevan, rather than confront Russia.
But it will also know that if Armenia doesn't agree to a final deal soon,
it could be left with a semi-permanent Russian presence on its soil and little
prospect of a comprehensive peace agreement ending the 30-year Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
In this sense, and with Russian forces suffering heavy losses in Ukraine,
Baku may see its best chance to end the matter once and for all.
Of course, this puts Armenia in a potentially dangerous position.
If it stalls for very much longer, Azerbaijan may indeed act.
This has seemingly been recognized by Prime Minister Pashinyan.
Having repeatedly suggested that Armenia needs to prepare for what will inevitably
be a painful peace agreement, he told the parliament after this latest bout
of fighting that he would sign a deal - despite the personal risks he faced.
However, many in the country remain vehemently opposed to any agreement.
Pashinyan's comments therefore sparked major protests in Yerevan,
where many call him a traitor.
As a result, just hours later, he appeared to walk back on his remarks.
Ultimately, it seems that the sides are now locked in an increasingly dangerous situation.
While Azerbaijan may feel the pressure to act soon,
despite the dangers of a confrontation with Russia, so many in Armenia see a peace deal
as treachery and perhaps feel that Baku wouldn't dare attack Russian forces.
Either way, it's a potentially high-stakes standoff; a standoff that could well determine
whether Nagorno-Karabakh continues to exist, and eventually gains some sort
of negotiated status within Azerbaijan - or, alternatively, is wiped off the map altogether.
I hope you found that interesting. If so,
here's another video that YouTube thinks you might find useful.
Thanks so much for watching and see you in the next video.