in mid-june 2020 world war iii started
trending on twitter
again this time it was because a border
dispute in the himalayas between chinese
and indian forces
turned deadly killing upward of 20
people
this is the first time since 1975 that
the two countries have had a fatal
conflict and the most serious skirmish
since 1967
naturally as the two nations are
populous militarily powerful
and have nuclear capabilities the world
is biting its nails to see what happens
next
but assuming the whole thing doesn't end
in diplomacy or a world-consuming
mushroom cloud
which country has what it takes to bring
home a final victory
using a mix of historical precedence of
the prior conflicts between the two
countries
and our knowledge of their current
military capabilities we intend to find
out
exactly whether china or india would win
if the two nations went to war today
after all we're not just talking about
dusty hypotheticals here
relations between india and china have
been extremely strained
since the sino-indian war of 1962 which
occurred over the same stretch of the
himalayan border that's causing
conflicts today
india had granted the dalai lama asylum
within their borders after the fallout
of the 1959 tibetan uprising
already putting them in china's bad
books and with china's military
encroaching on the line of actual
control
the demarcation line that separates
indian in chinese territory in the
himalayas
a military skirmish was practically
inevitable the resulting conflict was
short-lived
lasting only one month and one day
between october and november of 1962.
the people's liberation army of china
had a vast numerical superiority over
india's military forces
and india suffered significantly greater
losses with nearly double china's deaths
many wounded and over 3 000 captured
this loss is partly chalked up to the
fact that it's believed according to
some leaked cia documents
that india underestimated both china's
military capabilities
and their willingness to escalate the
conflict while india requested military
assistance from the u.s
in the form of 12 squadrons of fighter
jets their pleas were rejected
and india instead turned to moscow for
assistance
ultimately none of it did all that much
good as china claimed the eastern
theater
up to the line of actual control before
declaring a unilateral ceasefire
india was left to lick its wounds and
tensions between the two countries have
been high ever since
with conflict still breaking out well
into the 70s both
nations have ramped up militarization
around the line of actual control
as a show of strength and this has left
both with very little room to maneuver
in a sense the himalayan border is a
military powder keg
and lately we've been seeing the sparks
while a past record of military
supremacy definitely works in china's
favor
the sino-indian war was also 58 years
ago and
failure is an excellent teacher india
has been engaged in frequent conflicts
since the sino-indian war
giving their combatants invaluable
battlefield experience india is widely
believed to have won every conflict they
engaged in post-sino-indian war
with the exception of the indo-pakistani
war of 1965
which ended in a ceasefire china
comparatively fought its last
considerable conflict against vietnamese
forces in 1979 once again experienced
one out here as the vietnamese who'd
recently honed their skills in battle
against the forces of the united states
are largely considered to have handed
china's asses to them
this is why the value of actual
experience in war can never be
overstated
but let's take a step back and look at
what these two militaries have to offer
in terms of manpower technology training
and resources
first soldiers the bread and butter of
any military
much like the sino-indian war china has
numerical superiority
though in india's defense seeing as
china is ranked as having the highest
number of active military personnel in
the world
at 2 million 35 000 china's military has
numerical superiority over literally
everyone
with over 500 000 reserve personnel who
could be easily called into action
in a wartime scenario china is a force
to be reckoned with
india however isn't all that far behind
with 1 million 237
117 active personnel and an impressive
960 000 reserve personnel
putting the difference between their
totals in the mere hundred thousands
but here's the big twist the numbers
here only pertain to the indian army
which is the ground force branch of the
indian armed forces whose total number
of active personnel
are one million four hundred forty four
thousand five hundred
second only to the pla's total active
personnel however
the overall numbers of reserve personnel
for the indian armed forces
now dwarves china's at an astonishing
2.1 million
the indian navy boasts 67 252 active
personnel
and 55 000 reserves the indian air force
has
hundred 139 six active personnel and a
hundred forty thousand reserves
in contrast to india's three-pronged
system the pla consists of five branches
the ground force navy air force rocket
force
and the strategic assault force the
ground forces the chinese
infantry and land-based operations with
975
000 active personnel the pla navy has
240 000 active personnel
the air force even higher at 398 000
active personnel
the people's liberation army rocket
force also known by the pretty funny
acronym plarf
is the branch of the military in charge
of the land-based ballistic and nuclear
armaments
they have only 100 000 active personnel
and finally the strategic assault force
this is the newest branch of the pla
established officially in 2015
dealing with extremely modern forms of
warfare like space and cyber operations
this division is so new that we don't
even have an exact number of active
personnel
but due to the specialization of the job
and the fact that the group is only five
years old
it's safe to assume that it's likely the
smallest branch of the pla
however we also have a far wider trend
to consider here
the fact that china and india are two of
the most populous nations on earth
with populations of 1.393 billion and
1.353 billion respectively
as of 2018 in a situation of all-out war
over their shared border
if both nations introduced conscription
the numerical differences between their
armies would ultimately be nebulous
so if neither army would have an extreme
numerical edge in the case of another
conflict
let's zoom in and take a look at the
average military service member in each
infantry specifically their training
equipment
and weaponry thankfully for india
they've grown to invest in more
intensive military training over the
years
including joint operations training with
the british us
japanese french and australian
militaries as their involvement in the
u.n deepen
the indian military is also consistently
invested in modernized primary assault
rifle systems for their troops
currently working with a mix of american
sig sauer 716 assault rifles
and an indo-russian ak-47 203
a modernization of the famously reliable
and hardy ak-47
as of 2018 indian infantry troops are
fitted with
smpp ballistic armor even capable of
withstanding blasts from the steel core
rounds fired out of an ak-47
all these factors add up to one
formidable individual soldier
china's infantry troops don't have quite
the same thing going for them
modern chinese military training has
been criticized for years for its lack
of useful applications in real life
combat scenarios
meaning the average military skills of a
chinese infantryman may leave something
to be desired compared to their indian
counterparts
they're formidable in the rifle
department with the qbz951
a reliable bullpup rifle which performs
best at long range
however despite china being one of the
world's most prolific exporters of body
armor
it hasn't historically fitted its troops
with that same standard of protection
the pla is notorious for its light
loadout often leaving soldiers
ill-prepared for taking fire
and giving the indian infantry troops a
huge comparative advantage however
this may change in the not too distant
future according to a report from global
times
china is investing heavily in updating
and modernizing its training system
as well as planning on procuring 1.4
million units of high quality body armor
for the pla
while this isn't currently a certainty
if these plans do go through any
advantages that the indian army may have
had on an individual soldier level
would essentially evaporate leaving them
dead even once again
but these days war is far more complex
than a large group of armed men running
at each other and fighting down to the
last one standing
in modern warfare technology can give
militaries the crucial edge they need
to secure a victory over the enemy since
2008 china and india have ranked second
in third respectively
in global military spending but the gap
between them is still
pretty immense last year china spent an
astonishing 261 billion dollars on
military development
compared to india's far smaller 71.1
billion
this disparity becomes a little more
natural when you realize that china's
economy is five times the size of
india's
let's take a look at how these numbers
actually translate into vehicles for
their armies navies and air forces
while china is generally packing more
hardware than india
one exception is in the world of tanks
where india's over 4200 stands over a
thousand units greater than china's 3200
plus tanks
however this doesn't paint the whole
picture of china's ground capabilities
if we're looking at the number of
armored ground vehicles overall china's
33 000
dwarfs india's 8600 giving them
considerable ground superiority
bolstered by the fact that they have 10
times more rocket projectors than their
indian counterparts
china also holds dominance over the
skies with 3210 aircraft
compared to india's 2123 it also has
approximately double the fighter in
interceptor jets and 507 workable
airports
compared to india's 346. once again
sadly for india this trend continues
into the country's navies
in terms of total naval assets china
outnumbers india by
777 to 285. more specifically it has 74
submarines to india's 16.
36 destroyers to india's 11 and if wars
were decided on equipment alone
it's unquestionable that china would
take the win here of course while nobody
on earth wants the conflict to escalate
to this point for the sake of all human
life
we'd be remiss to not return to the fact
that china and india are both
nuclear nations if the war ever did
become an exchange of nuclear force who
would come out on top
well for a number of reasons china has a
clear edge here
not only did they develop their nuclear
capabilities just over a decade earlier
than india in 1964 new delhi wouldn't
have its first nuke until 1975
but their nuclear arsenal is also double
the size of india's with a far
quicker growth rate china has a
stockpile of 320 nuclear warheads
having grown by 40 in the past year
compare this to india with only 150
nuclear warheads which grew by a mere 10
in the past year both nations can deploy
these warheads via the nuclear triad of
missiles submarines and bombers and
thankfully for the human race
both have a no first strike policy this
means the warheads can only be used in
retaliation to another nuclear attack
making it less likely that either
country would want to strike first
of course if either did all of us would
ultimately lose from the resulting
radioactive fire fight
but on sheer numbers china takes the
clear win with regard to nuclear
capabilities
one final factor worth considering is
one that's rarely mentioned in a lot of
abstract military planning
allies while it's easy to think of war
purely in terms of enemies
your diplomatic and military friends can
also be a make or break factor
in determining the outcome of a conflict
while china could largely be working a
solo war against india with the
exception of perhaps pakistan
a country with fraught relationships
with india to say the least
india itself has been building
diplomatic relationships with a number
of extremely valuable allies
these include the united states a
country with the highest military
spending in the world
who under president trump have gone cold
on relations with china
while referring to india as a major
defense partner india has also developed
strong diplomatic ties to japan
france and australia through performing
a number of joint military drills with
all of them
having these various world powers behind
them gives india a serious combat hedger
for china
providing these allies come to india
side in their time of need
while the us could be india's greatest
ally in this speculative war
foreign policy under president trump has
been known to be capricious and
unreliable to other allies
such as the kurdish forces in syria in
2019 so there's really no way of telling
for sure
so back to our big question who would
win in a modern conflict between india
and china
turns out it's a lot more complex than
you may have thought while a layman
might assume that china's apparent
numerical and monetary advantages hand
it an easy win
these advantages can be neutralized by
india's stronger troops who are better
equipped better trained and
more experienced and its greater network
of powerful allies
then there's the strategic picture as
while the indian navy is smaller than
the chinese navy india itself is
situated on the jugular of chinese trade
so to speak
chinese trade ships must pass through
the indian ocean to reach their
destinations
and while china may have a larger fleet
it's not very well equipped to conduct
operations far from its own shores
with only two aircraft carriers with a
capacity of about 24 aircraft between
them
and one not even being operational yet
any chinese incursion into the indian
ocean to protect its trade fleets would
be disastrous
as the chinese task force would be
brutally pounded by indian air and naval
power
with china receiving the bulk of its oil
from maritime trade routes a protracted
war between the two nations would
inevitably the chinese military
and industry both
india would simply have to fight
defensively as the terrain separating
india and china is extremely difficult
and well suited to defensive warfare
while the chinese could crush any indian
incursion into china itself
and there'd be few strategic targets to
take close to the indian border anyway
a war between the two nations would
inevitably see india the winner
as it slowly strangles chinese trade to
death
check out american usa vs chinese
soldier how do they compare
military army comparison and russia vs
usa who would win
military comparison 2019 for more
compelling military analysis