good afternoon everybody thank you very
much for coming I wanted to bring
everyone up to date with the national
fight back against the new corona virus
and the decisions that we've just taken
in Cobra for the whole of the of the UK
as we said last week our objective is to
delay and flatten the peak of the
epidemic by bringing forward the right
measures at the right time so that we
minimize suffering and save life and
everything we do is based scrupulously
on the best scientific advice last week
we asked everyone to stay at home if you
had one of two key symptoms high
temperature all a new and continuous
cough today we need to go further
because according to Sage the scientific
advisory committee on emergencies it
looks as though we're now approaching
the fast growth part of the upward curve
and without drastic action cases could
double every five or six days so first
we need to ask you to ensure that if you
or anyone in your household has one of
those two symptoms then you should stay
at home for 14 days that means that if
possible you should not go out even to
buy food or essentials other than for
exercise and in that case at a safe
distance from others if necessary you
should ask for help from others for your
daily necessities and if that is not
possible then you should do what you can
to limit your social contact when you
leave the house to get supplies and even
if you don't have symptoms and if no one
in your household has symptoms there is
more that we need you to do now
so second now is the time for everyone
to stop non-essential contact with
others and to stop all unnecessary
travel we need people to start working
from home where they possibly can and
you should avoid pubs clubs theaters and
other such social venues it goes without
saying repeat the message we should all
only use the NHS when we really need to
and please go online rather than ringing
NHS one one one
now this advice about avoiding all
unnecessary social contact is
particularly important for people over
70 for pregnant women and for those with
health conditions with some health
conditions and if you ask why are we
doing this now why now why not earlier
or or later why bring in this very
draconian measure the answer is that we
are asking people to do something that
is difficult and disruptive of their
lives and the right moment as we've
always said is to do it when it is most
effective when we think it can make the
biggest difference to slowing the spread
of the disease reducing the number of
victims reducing the number of
fatalities and as we take these steps we
should be focusing on the most
vulnerable so third in a few days time
by this coming weekend it will be
necessary to go further and to ensure
that those with the most serious health
conditions are largely shielded from
contact from social contact for around
12 weeks and again the reason for doing
this in the next few days rather than
earlier or later is that this is going
to be very disruptive for people who
have such conditions difficult for them
but I
it's now necessary we want to ensure
that this period of shielding this
period of maximum protection coincides
with the peak of the disease and it's
now clear that the peak of the epidemic
is coming faster in some parts of the
country than in others and it looks as
though London is now a few weeks ahead
so to relieve the pressure on the London
health system and to slow the spread in
London it's important that Londoners now
pay special attention to what we're
saying about avoiding non-essential
contact and to take particularly
seriously the advice about working from
home and avoiding confined spaces such
as pubs and restaurants lastly it
remains true as we've said in the last
few weeks that risks of transmission of
the disease at mass gatherings such as
sporting events are relatively low but
obviously logically as we advise against
unnecessary social contact of all kinds
it's right that we should extend that
advice to mass gatherings as well and so
we've also got to ensure that we have
the critical workers we need that might
otherwise be deployed are those
gatherings to deal with this emergency
so so from tomorrow we will no longer be
supporting mass gatherings with
emergency workers in the way that we
normally do so mass gatherings we're now
moving emphatically away from and I know
that many people including milk millions
of fit and active people over 70 may
feel listening to what I have just said
that there is something excessive about
these measures but I have to say I
believe they are overwhelmingly worth it
to slow the spread of the disease to
reduce the peak
to save life minimize suffering and to
give our NHS the chance to cope over the
last few days I've been comparing notes
and talking to leaders around the world
and I can tell you that the the UK is
now leading a growing global campaign
amongst all our friends and allies
whether in the g7 the g20 the UN the IMF
all those bodies in which we play a
significant role we're leading a
campaign to fight back against this
disease to keep the economy growing to
make sure that humanity has access to
the drugs and the treatments that we all
need and the UK is also at the front of
the effort to back a business to back
our economy to make sure that we get
through it I know that we are today
asking a lot of everybody is is far more
now than just washing your hands though
they're clearly washing your hands
remains important but I can tell you
that across this country people and
businesses in my experience are
responding with amazing energy and
creativity to the challenge that we face
and I want to thank everybody for the
part that you are playing and that
you're gonna play our chief scientific
adviser will now update us on where we
are over to you Patrick thank you so
long sage measures that can save lives
and protect people the objectives as I
laid out last time are to really
suppress the curve in order to keep it
below NHS capacity so that the NHS can
cope and to shield the vulnerable and
those most likely to get severe disease
so that we protect them across this
period most people it's worth reminding
us have a mild disease but some do not
this is a very fast-moving situation the
latest numbers that we reviewed it's
suggests that we're entering a fast
growth period or on the cusp of doing so
and London is ahead of other parts of
the country we at the outset laid out a
plan and advised that we would implement
it the measures at the right stage and
in the right combination the right
combination to ensure that we get the
biggest impact
unfortunately that time is now for many
of these measures what we're doing is
implementing them actually at a stage of
the epidemic which is a little bit
earlier than has been done in some other
countries given where we are in terms of
the epidemic now the measures have two
objectives one is to delay the
transmission of this virus across the
community and the second is to keep
people safe the measures as the Prime
Minister is outlined include whole
household isolation so if one person
gets the symptoms of new persistent
cough or fever the whole household stays
isolated for 14 days
the reason it's 14 days is the seven
days for the person who's got the
infection the incubation period that
others may catch it and the seven days
after that we're also recommending
increased social distancing that's the
phrase that you hear which means trying
to reduce contact between people again
to try to delay this transmission that
means where businesses can do it and
where individuals can do it home working
is recommended unnecessary travel should
be reduced and stopped avoiding
gatherings and crowded places is
important and those gatherings big or
small are important so that you get the
whole thing together it's not just the
size of a gathering it's actually all
gatherings which become important and
reducing social contacts there are
specific measures
for the vulnerable groups the people who
are most likely to get serious illness
with this infection and Chris Witte will
say more about that those measures would
need to go on for 12 weeks or so across
this period maybe a little longer
these measures like case isolation that
we talked about last week staying at
home if you've got the symptoms these
new measures have a big effect this is
not a series of small interventions you
would anticipate that this could have a
dramatic effect to reduce the peak and
to reduce death rate they are not easy
but they are important and they will
have the effect if we all do it this is
a matter for us to take accountability
to make sure we help each other protect
ourselves and protect the NHS it is also
possible as laid out in the plan that
other measures may be necessary
including at some point as we've said it
may be necessary to think about things
like school closures but those things
again need to be done at the right time
in the right way at the right stage of
the outbreak I'll hand over to Chris I'm
just going to add a few comments
additionally from a medical point of
view but a mark I'm not gonna repeat
points that are really made and the
first thing is to make an obvious point
that this is a now a very global disease
and the way you deal with global
pandemics is different in public towns
health terms than the way you would deal
with a localized outbreak where you're
the first country or a very significant
region that is has got it and the second
point is the obvious point again that in
this country this disease is now
accelerating up the curb but it is still
at a low level but it will accelerate up
now really quite rapidly now we
obviously need to do things that are
both effective and all the measures that
are here have been gone over by several
large numbers of scientists in different
ways looking at mathematical models
behavioral sciences many other forms of
science to find the things which are the
most effective but they also have to be
sustainable because this is going to go
on for some time and I think we should
not be under any illusions that if we
just do this for a couple of weeks
that is sufficient this is going to have
to be a prolonged period now for any
individual person let me start off with
the most cheery point about this for any
individual person the chances of dying
from coronavirus are actually very low
some people will not get the infection
and many of the measures we're doing at
the moment will help with that some
people will get it and will have no
symptoms at all they won't even realize
they've had it of those who do have
symptoms the majority will have either a
mild disease or a moderate disease
meaning they can easily manage it at
home without having to go to the NHS
directly or indirectly in any other way
but obviously a small minority but a
significant one get significant disease
requiring hospital care a small
proportion of those will go on to need
intensive care and sadly some people
will go on to die and as we've discussed
before the overall mortality rate looks
as if it's a bit less than 1% on current
data but that's without knowing how many
people get the disease asymptomatic lis
but we know some people get it now we
also know that older people are at
greater risk and that is widely known
but it is important I think to stress
that being old does not necessarily mean
you'll get it worse and actually there
was a rather nice article by Minister
Nadine Doris who actually explained when
she had coronavirus her mother who
caught it from her had it more Marley so
it's not a necessary fact that older
people will necessarily have it worse so
you might say why with a disease where
we have such small numbers at the moment
and which the great majority people are
going to recover from and most of them
will have a mild or
or non non noticeable disease would we
want to do anything at all and the
reason is this acceleration and our
overall aim and our single aim is to
reduce death rates and the numbers of
people who might die as a result of this
but I think it's important to recognize
and listen the reason I'm explaining
this is so people understand the logic
of what we're doing that there are
broadly three groups of death deaths and
other impacts on health we need to
consider there are the direct deaths
which are caused by the coronavirus
disease itself with good medical care
tragically a few people the great
majority of them in less good health but
not necessarily all will pass away there
are however and this is really important
a significant number of other deaths
which if the NHS became overwhelmed in
any of the four nations if the intensive
care has got care units got to the point
when they were overwhelmed then people
would die from indirect deaths because
they did not have the ability to get
medical care and a lot of what we are
trying to do is trying to reduce the
chance that those indirect deaths might
occur and then the third possibility and
it is an important one for us to
consider is that some of the measures we
are doing well undoubtedly or could have
negative impacts on people's health it
themselves so there are negative effects
of what we do to try and combat the
corona virus one of the reasons we are
very keen not to go in advance of need
was because of those negative facts and
I've come on to one of them later on
now just to explain where the different
things fall into this the very profound
changes in terms of social distancing
that the Prime Minister laid out which
are going to be very difficult for
people to maintain over long period of
time and will have very significant
social effects do you have the capacity
significantly to pull down the peak of
this infection wave and therefore make
it easier for the NHS and particularly
the ventilation support to be able to
cope with the wave that is heading it
way so that is really critical people
who do this who restricts their social
gathering are doing things to protect
the NHS to allow people allow the NHS to
treat both people with coronavirus and
people who have other things as well it
is overall effect on the NHS this is the
second group of things which the Prime
Minister is laid out are those things
that we want the quite large group of
people who either are over 70 possibly
quite healthy or very healthy over 70
but over seventy or who are younger than
70 but have a significant health
condition and this is mainly in adults
we want them to take even greater care
because this is in addition to making
sure that they don't end up helping fuel
the epidemic themselves it means they do
not have to go to hospital which is good
for the NHS but most importantly it
reduces the risk that they will catch
the virus particular to time when the
NHS is under strain this is absolutely
critical and the we're going the group
of people who will want to take this
advice particularly seriously are older
people above 70 people who in adult life
would normally be advised to have the
flu vaccinations so these are people
with chronic diseases such as chronic
heart disease or chronic kidney disease
and also as a precautionary measure
because we are early in our
understanding of this virus and we want
to be sure women who are pregnant and
those three groups are the groups we
want to take particular care to minimise
their social contact which will of
course will have very significant risks
for them and later on we will be giving
a very shortly a much more specific list
of an even smaller group of people who
have very profound health problems they
all know they got very profound health
problems for example people who might
have advanced myeloma or leukemia
things that significantly affect their
immune system the final [ __ ] that is
being talked about today is in addition
to what we've previously talked to
is the 14 days stay at home if one
person in the in the household has
symptoms the whole household stays at
home now there has to be some common
sense around this if there's a very
vulnerable person in the household for
example we'll need people we'll need to
take that into account we'll need to
think that people need to think through
the practicalities of their own position
but the reason for this is because they
are helping to stop it be transmitted on
to the rest of the community and these
people the trouble is if you actually
are in a household with someone who's
got coronavirus there is a reasonably
high chance you will be infected and
we'll go on together so this is in a
sense some things people are doing to
help protect the rest of society we do
want to stress that the great majority
of these people will have mild or
moderate disease they don't need to
contact the NHS they can get they can
use in it the NHS online services very
extensive information there we really
would encourage them not if they have
mild or moderate disease to phone
one-one-one because the service we need
to protect for those who are are are in
greatest need but really important to
stress if anybody's health starts to
deteriorate significantly then they
should phone one-one-one or contact the
health services in the way they usually
would so this is if people deteriorate
we'd want to make it clear they should
then do so finally I just want to make a
point on behalf of my other CMOS of hope
for all four nations we are enormous ly
proud of what our colleagues in the NHS
and public health have done so far to
delay this and to do so in a safe way
and enormous amount of work has gone on
to do that the next few weeks and months
are going to be extraordinarily
difficult for the NHS in all four
nations we know that our colleagues will
rise this challenge where we know it is
going to be very hard indeed but we have
enormous faith in them thank you very
much
you